1 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST IRAQ WAR POLLS, JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1991 (ICPSR 9563) Principal Investigators ABC News/Washington Post First ICPSR Release April 1991 Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research P.O. Box 1248 Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 1 1 BIBLIOGRAPHIC CITATION Publications based on ICPSR data collections should acknowledge those sources by means of bibliographic citations. To ensure that such source attributions are captured for social science bibliographic utilities, citations must appear in footnotes or in the reference section of publications. The bibliographic citation for this data collection is: ABC News/Washington Post. ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST IRAQ WAR POLLS, JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1991. [Computer file]. Radnor, PA: Chilton Research Services [producer], 1991. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1991. REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ON USE OF ICPSR RESOURCES To provide funding agencies with essential information about use of archival resources and to facilitate the exchange of information about ICPSR participants' research activities, users of ICPSR data are requested to send to ICPSR bibliographic citations for each completed manuscript or thesis abstract. Please indicate in a cover letter which data were used. DATA DISCLAIMER The original collector of the data, ICPSR, and the relevant funding agency bear no responsibility for uses of this collection or for interpretations or inferences based upon such uses. 1 1 DATA COLLECTION DESCRIPTION ABC News/Washington Post ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST IRAQ WAR POLLS, JANUARY-FEBRUARY 1991 (ICPSR 9563) SUMMARY: This data collection consists of telephone surveys concerning the Persian Gulf war between Iraq and the allied Coalition forces. Part 1, conducted just prior to the January 15th deadline set by the United Nations Security Council for Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait, asked respondents if the United States should take military action, what the likelihood was that the United States would go to war, how long the war would last, and how many casualties would result. Additional questions included whether the United States should hold further talks with Iraq, whether a diplomatic solution was possible, if the United States should agree to an Arab-Israeli conference, and if respondents approved of actions taken by George Bush and Congress. Parts 2-9 were conducted after the outbreak of war. Respondents were asked if they approved or disapproved of George Bush's and Israel's handling of the situation, of the United States' having gone to war, and of American anti-war protests. They were also asked how long they thought the war would last, how many casualties would result, who would win, if enough had been done to seek a diplomatic solution, and if the United States and her allies had been right to attack Iraq. In addition, respondents were asked how they rated the job the United States military was doing, if the air war would be enough or if a ground war would be necessary, if the government was releasing enough or too much information, if Israel should strike back at Iraq for the missile attacks, if the respondent was afraid to travel or afraid of increased terrorism, if the United States was heading toward another Viet Nam, and whether moral principle or economic reality had been the motive behind American troops' being sent to the Persian Gulf. Other topics covered include the final objective of the war (driving Iraq out of Kuwait or Saddam Hussein from power), allied bombing in Baghdad and issues surrounding hits on possible military targets that would result in civilian casualties, the presence of American reporters in Iraq, talks between Iraq and the Soviet Union seeking a diplomatic solution, and a set of questions addressing possible outcomes for Saddam Hussein and the respondent's personal feelings regarding him. Background information provided includes age, race, sex, political party identification, state/region of residence, and if the respondent had friends or relatives serving in the military in the Gulf region. CLASS IV UNIVERSE: Adults aged 18 and over living in households with telephones in the 48 contiguous United States. SAMPLING: Households were selected by random digit dialing. Within household, the respondent selected was the adult living in the household who last had a birthday and who was at home at the time of the interview. NOTE: The data contain blanks and alphabetic characters. Parts 3, 6, and 9 were conducted solely by ABC News. EXTENT OF COLLECTION: 9 data files + machine-readable documentation DATA FORMAT: Card Image ---FOR SPSS EXERCISE ONLY THE JANUARY 13TH POLL IS REFERENCED----- 1 PART 1: Pre-Hostilities Poll, January 13 FILE STRUCTURE: rectangular CASES: 781 VARIABLES: 36 RECORD LENGTH: 80 RECORDS PER CASE: 1 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page No. Part 1: Pre-Hostilities Poll, January 13 1 Part 9: February 27 Poll 49 Chilton State Codes 55 Chilton Region Codes 56 ABC News State Codes 57 ABC Region Codes 58 1 1 ICPSR 9563, Part 1 January 13 Poll Page 1 Chilton Research Services Study #8828 Radnor, Pennsylvania (1/91) ABC POLL #: 413 ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST JANUARY 1991 PREDEADLINE POLL Hello, I'm calling from Chilton Research Services. We are doing a survey for ABC News and the Washington Post on some current events. Our research experts have randomly selected the person in your household I should speak to, so that all types of people will be represented in our survey. Thinking of all the male/female adults 18 years of age and older, living in this household, currently at home . . . . may I please speak to the one who last had a birthday? (IF NO MALE/FEMALE IN THE HOUSEHOLD, ASK: Then may I please speak to the female/male who last had a birthday?) (REPEAT INTRODUCTION IF NEEDED) 1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George Bush is handling the situation caused by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait? Approve 1 Disapprove 2 1 (06) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 2. Do you agree or disagree that the United States should take all action necessary, including the use of military force, to make sure that Iraq withdraws its forces from Kuwait? Agree 1 Disagree 2 1 (07) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 3. As you may know, the United Nations Security Council has authorized the use of force against Iraq if it doesn't withdraw from Kuwait by January 15th. If Iraq does not withdraw from Kuwait, should the United States go to war with Iraq to force it out of Kuwait at some point after January 15th, or not? Yes 1 No 2(SKIP TO Q. 5) 1 (08) DK/No opinion 8(SKIP TO Q. 5) NA/Refused 9(SKIP TO Q. 5) 1 Page 2 January 13 Poll ICPSR 9563, Part 1 4. How long after Jan. 15 should the United States wait for Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait before going to war to force it out? Immediately/now 01 Less than 1 month 02 1-3 months 03 4-6 months 04 1 (09-10) 7-9 months 05 10-12 months 06 Over 1 year 07 DK/No opinion 88 NA/Refused 99 5. Just your best guess, do you think the United States is going to get involved in a war with Iraq, or not? Yes 1 No 2 (SKIP TO Q.6) DK/No opinion 8 (SKIP TO Q.6) 1 (11) NA/Refused 9 (SKIP TO Q.6) 5.1 Would you say the chances are high, low, or somewhere in between? High 1 Low 2 1 (22) Somewhere in between 3 DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 6. Do you think a war between the United States and Iraq would be a relatively short war lasting a few weeks or months or do you think such a war would last for a long time, a year or more? Short war 1 Long war 2 1 (12) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 7. Just your best guess, do you think a war between the United States and Iraq would result in a high number of deaths among American troops, a low number of deaths or what? High 1 Low 2 1 (13) (VOL) In Between 3 DK/No Opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 1 ICPSR 9563, Part 1 January 13 Poll Page 3 8. Do you think the United States has done enough to seek a diplomatic solution to the Persian Gulf situation, or not? U.S. has done enough 1 U.S. has NOT done enough 2 1 (14) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 9. Do you think the United States should hold additional talks with Iraq before the Jan. 15 deadline, or not? More talks before Jan. 15 1 NO more talks before Jan. 15 2 1 (15) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 10. Do you think the United States should hold additional talks with Iraq after the Jan. 15 deadline, or not? More talks AFTER Jan. 15 1 NO more talks AFTER Jan. 15 2 1 (16) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 11. Do you think additional talks between the United States and Iraq would produce a diplomatic solution to the Persian Gulf situation or not? Yes 1 No 2 1 (17) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 No Q.12 13. If Iraq agreed to withdraw from most of Kuwait but not all of it, do you think the United States should accept that, or not? Yes 1 No 2 1 (19) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 1 Page 4 January 13 Poll ICPSR 9563, Part 1 14. The Bush administration opposes making any concessions to Iraq to get it to withdraw from Kuwait, including an international conference on Arab-Israeli problems. Some people say such a conference would be a concession that would reward Iraqi aggression by linking the Arab- Israeli dispute with Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. Other people say such an agreement would be worth it if it got Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait without a war. Do you think the United States should agree to an Arab-Israeli conference if Iraq agreed to withdraw from Kuwait, or not? Should agree 1 Should NOT agree 2 1 (23) DK/No Opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 15. As you may know, Congress voted this weekend to allow President Bush to go to war against Iraq if Iraq is not out of Kuwait by January 15th. Do you approve or disapprove of Congress having voted to allow Bush to go to war? Approve 1 Disapprove 2 1 (24) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 16. Do you think Congress acted too late, too soon, or did they vote about when they should have on giving Bush authority to go to war? Too late 1 Too soon 2 1 (25) Just about when they should have 3 DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 17. Overall, since the start of the crisis, do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress has handled the situation caused by Iraq's invasion of Kuwait? Approve 1 Disapprove 2 1 (26) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 18. As you may know, the United Nations Secretary-General went to Iraq and had talks with Saddam Hussein on Sunday. Do you think these talks will produce a diplomatic solution or not? Yes 1 No 2 1 (34) DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 1 ICPSR 9563, Part 1 January 13 Poll Page 5 19. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: (READ LIST) A Democrat 1 A Republican 2 1 (20) An Independent 3 Or what? 4 --- DO NOT READ BELOW--- DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 20. Do you happen to have any friends or relatives in the military who are currently stationed in Saudi Arabia or elsewhere in the Gulf region as part of U.S. forces there? Yes 1 No 2(SKIP TO Q.22) 1 (27) DK/No opinion 8(SKIP TO Q.22) NA/Refused 9(SKIP TO Q.22) 21. Are they friends, or relatives? Friends 1 Relatives 2 1 (28) (vol) Both 3 DK/No opinion 8 NA/Refused 9 22. In what year were you born? 1 (30-33) 23. Are you of Hispanic origin or background? (IF "YES," ASK:) Are you White Hispanic or Black Hispanic? (IF "NO," ASK:) are you white, black, or some other race? White 1 Black 2 1 (21) White Hispanic 3 Black Hispanic 4 Hispanic(no race given) 5 Other Race 6 NA/Refused 9 24. RESPONDENT'S SEX: Male 1 Female 2 1 (59) 1 Page 6 January 13 Poll ICPSR 9563, Part 1 CHILTON STATE 1 (60-61) CHILTON REGION 1 (62-63) ABC STATE 1 (64-65) ABC REGION 1 (66-67) ABC 3-LETTER STATE 1 (68-70) [ALPHA] JULIAN DATE 1 (71-75) SELECT SEX (B-DAY) 1 (76) SELECT SEX 1 (77) RECODED AGE 1 (78) 18-30 1 31-44 2 45-60 3 61+ 4 Refused 9 DK/NA blank RESPONDENT ID 1 (1-5) DECK # 1 (80) WEIGHT (by sex) 1 (35-37) 2 implied decimals JULIAN DATE 1 (71-75) SELECT SEX (B-DAY) 1 (76) SELECT SEX 1 (77) RESPONDENT ID 1 (1-5) DECK # 1 (80) WEIGHT (by sex) 1 (45-47) 2 implied decimals 1 ICPSR 9563 Page 55 CHILTON STATE CODES (NO POLLING DONE IN ALASKA OR HAWAII) 01 Maine 25 West Virginia 02 New Hampshire 26 Virginia 03 Vermont 27 North Carolina 04 Massachusetts 28 South Carolina 05 Connecticut 29 Georgia 06 Rhode Island 30 Florida 07 New York 31 Mississippi 08 New Jersey 32 Alabama 09 Pennsylvania 33 Tennessee 10 Ohio 34 Kentucky 11 Indiana 35 Arkansas 12 Illinois 36 Louisiana 13 Michigan 37 Texas 14 Wisconsin 38 Oklahoma 15 Minnesota 39 New Mexico 16 Iowa 40 Arizona 17 Missouri 41 Nevada 18 Kansas 42 Utah 19 Nebraska 43 Colorado 20 South Dakota 44 Wyoming 21 North Dakota 45 Montana 22 Delaware 46 Idaho 23 Maryland 47 Washington 24 District of Columbia 48 Oregon 49 California 1 Page 56 ICPSR 9563 CHILTON REGION CODES 1 NEW ENGLAND Connecticut New Hampshire Maine Rhode Island Massachusetts Vermont 2 MIDDLE ATLANTIC New Jersey New York Pennsylvania 3 EAST NORTH CENTRAL Illinois Ohio Indiana Wisconsin Michigan 4 WEST NORTH CENTRAL Iowa Nebraska Kansas North Dakota Minnesota South Dakota Missouri 5 SOUTH ATLANTIC Delaware North Carolina District of Columbia South Carolina Florida Virginia Georgia West Virginia Maryland 6 EAST SOUTH CENTRAL Alabama Mississippi Kentucky Tennessee 7 WEST SOUTH CENTRAL Arkansas Oklahoma Louisiana Texas 8 MOUNTAIN Arizona Nevada Colorado New Mexico Idaho Utah Montana Wyoming 9 PACIFIC Alaska Oregon California Washington Hawaii 1 ICPSR 9563 Page 57 ABC NEWS STATE CODES ALA 01 Alabama LAS 02 Alaska ARI 03 Arizona ARK 04 Arkansas CAL 05 California COL 06 Colorado CON 07 Connecticut DEL 08 Delaware D/C 09 District of Columbia FLO 10 Florida GEO 11 Georgia HAW 12 Hawaii IDA 13 Idaho ILL 14 Illinois IND 15 Indiana IOW 16 Iowa KAN 17 Kansas KEN 18 Kentucky LOU 19 Louisiana MAI 20 Maine MAR 21 Maryland MAS 22 Massachusetts MIC 23 Michigan MIN 24 Minnesota MIS 25 Mississippi ISS 26 Missouri MON 27 Montana NEB 28 Nebraska NEV 29 Nevada N/H 30 New Hampshire N/J 31 New Jersey N/M 32 New Mexico N/Y 33 New York N/C 34 North Carolina N/D 35 North Dakota OHI 36 Ohio OKL 37 Oklahoma ORE 38 Oregon PEN 39 Pennsylvania R/I 40 Rhode Island S/C 41 South Carolina S/D 42 South Dakota TEN 43 Tennessee TEX 44 Texas UTA 45 Utah VER 46 Vermont VIR 47 Virginia WAS 48 Washington W/V 49 West Virginia WIS 50 Wisconsin WYO 51 Wyoming 1 Page 58 ICPSR 9563 ABC NEWS REGION CODES 1 EAST 2 MIDWEST Connecticut Illinois Delaware Indiana District of Columbia Iowa Maine Kansas Maryland Michigan Massachusetts Minnesota New Hampshire Missouri New Jersey Nebraska New York North Dakota Pennsylvania Ohio Rhode Island South Dakota Vermont Wisconsin 3 SOUTH 4 WEST Alabama Alaska Arkansas Arizona Florida California Georgia Colorado Kentucky Hawaii Louisiana Idaho Mississippi Montana North Carolina Nevada Oklahoma New Mexico South Carolina Oregon Tennessee Utah Texas Washington Virginia Wyoming West Virginia