Introduction to Impact Analysis

The following proposal outlines a program to evaluate alternative economic and social outcomes that could result from pursuing an array of cultural, artistic and environmental conservation and development options over a 5 to 10 year horizon in Yunnan Province. This study could provide guidance to leaders, decisionmakers as well as implementers to select the best development scenarios to benefit the people of Yunnan, provide surplus for other uses and be funded. This proposal outlines possible study parameters, phases, some of the costs for the phases and preliminary next steps.

Response to Threats to Yunnan’s Cultural and Ecological Wealth

Yunnan Province is home to the greatest ethnic and national diversity in China with 23 different ancient minority nationalities. The Province also has a wealth of natural resources – timber, minerals, arrable land, scenic splendors, etc. Globalization, westernization, industrialization, social and informational pressures threaten to eradicate, degrade or homogenize (inappropriately westernize) the great cultural and historical resources and to squander the natural resources. These pressures can only increase with the progress China is making to join the WTO.

To support the fundamental rights of minority nationalities to determine their economic future and to conserve and sustainably develop their cultural and natural resources, Yunnan needs to analyze the economic impacts of the many different development strategies and carefully select among those that could be pursued in harmony with cultural objectives.

Much work has been done already to lay the foundation for such a study. [Describe the work of the Center.] The next step is to study, analyze, evaluate and chose among the different options.

This is not to replace any of the many collaborative projects that are emerging from the rich dialogues among the participants in the Joint Leadership Conference. Nor is it to substitute for the existing provincial planning process. This project would attempt to inform decisionmakers, artists, scholars and businesspersons on the different strategies to achieve the long range goals.

Structure of Economic Analysis

The alternatives analysis needs to proceed in two parallel and intersecting tracks. Track one is study (and inventory) of the potential cultural activities. Track two is study of the economic development projects that impact those cultural endeavors, including industrial and power development, mineral extraction, road building, etc. The core focus must be first on understanding how to enhance the potential of cultural activities, second on what the predictable impacts that uncontrolled development can have on those cultural activities.

The economic analysis would be undertaken by a joint team of international experts in each economic sector collaborating with Yunnan scholars, experts and members of national minorities. Provincial leaders would participate in and inform the discussions. Existing documentation – such as Provincial surveys and development plans – would be used as much as possible.

The analysis would start by laying out alternative development strategies to meet core long term objectives. These objectives—to be developed through dialogue with provincial leaders, local scholars, minority nationalities’ leaders and international experts – could include:

Conservation of cultural heritage

Expansion of tourism and exports

Industrial and economic development consistent with conservation of cultural heritage

Expanding educational enrichment in Yunnan and beyond

Provide a world model for intercultural development and prosperity

The track one analysis would evaluate the market potential for expanding and sustaining the cultural resources of Yunnan’s minority nationalities (domestic art, tourism, art export, nationalities’ art education, museums, education, cultural heritage, etc.) in the context of evolving world markets. The analysis would rest on input from the minority nationalities’ artists in collaboration with those experts who could see ways of increasing the potential of those arts. For example, it would evaluate the art products that could be produced, the markets where the products could be sold, the competition from other areas of the world for indigenous cultural artifacts, etc. The objective is to determine the economic potential of an array of strategies, standing on their own and assuming no threats from other sectors of the economy.

The second track analysis would evaluate the full cost-benefit considerations of those economic development activities that impact national minorities and their cultural heritage and potential. These include: transportation, industrial development (mineral extraction, electric power development, materials processing), land cultivation, agriculture and macro-tourism. It would integrate the results of the first track to evaluate overall economic development alternatives in the province to provide leaders, decisionmakers and implementers with a sound basis for making long range, implementable and financeable development plans. For example, local villages where artisans live may be very negatively impacted by the development of roads through their forests. The total cost of road building, for example, needs to include the societal costs of dislocations of peoples (and the real economic costs), the loss of productivity, the degradation of the environment (animal and flora survival and migration, exposure, erosion, etc.) in the context of the economic benefits of the roads (income from mineral extraction, logging, employment, etc.).

Study Phases

The study would be conducted in three phases. The objective of phase one would be to scope out the dimensions of the alternatives analysis. It would consist of a general scoping meeting including provincial leaders and scholars, international experts and leaders of national minorities as well as representatives of world funding bodies and multinational corporations. It could be conducted at quite low cost.

Phase two would be the performance of the study. It could take from approximately nine months to a year from the development of the scope of work. It could cost in the neighborhood of $500,000 to $1 million US. It would involve provincial leaders as providers of guidance and input. The work would be conducted by small teams of international experts and local scholars. Additional input and verification would be sought from community members of the minority nationalities and artisans at all levels.

Phase three would have two components, one focused on developing the cultural potential, the other focused on guiding economic development to avoid negative effects on cultural activities. The first would include work with local community participants – minority nationalities and artisans -- to develop projects identified in phase two as achieving Yunnan Province long range objectives and being able to be implemented and funded. This phase would also include a review of development plans in other spheres of economic activity to determine that the overall Yunnan Province program supported in the most efficient and cost effective manner the overall long range development objectives. Costs would vary with the size of each development project, but would be fully self-sustaining. The Province might want to continue using the international experts to assist in long term planning, program and project management, etc., but that would be outside the scope of this proposal, but would be very supportive and complimentary to the study objectives. The second component would include developing regulatory and possibly statutory guidelines and controls over economic development that would protect and enhance the value of cultural resources.

Preliminary Next Steps

The first step is to obtain funding commitments from several international organizations and the Province to support the first phase. These entities should also be willing to support phases two and three on the basis of reviewing the outcome of phase two and the economic potential of phase three proposals in the context of the Province’s commitment to pursue harmonious and sustainable economic development policies. Subsequent steps will be guided by the outcome of the first phase.