Steven Cohen, director of the graduate program in earth sciences and policy management at Columbia's School of International and Public Affairs and Columbia Law student, Greg Frankel co-authored an article in Newsday on 5/3 about the challenges the next mayor will face.

Despite a $2.8-billion surplus, Mayor Giuliani's proposed tax cut, recent labor settlements and construction commitments to a new ball park may lead to deficits approaching $3 billion a year once he leaves office, Cohen and Frankel wrote.

According to Cohen and Frankel, in addition to the deficit, the next mayor's largest challenge will be the rising cost of garbage disposal.

The Fresh Kills landfill on Staten Island received its last ton of waste from the Department of Sanitation (DES) on March 22. Consequently, the city's annual bill for collecting and disposing of residential trash has risen nearly 50 percent to about $658 million.

Although the city was paying less than $50 per ton for disposal at Fresh Kills, some contracts with private firms cost more than $100 per ton.

Under long-term plans the city will enter into 20-year contracts with six private waste firms. These contracts will have fixed cost increases and, according to the DES, no minimum tonnage requirements. However, over the next 20 years, legislative changes and marketing development could increase the cost of disposing waste considerably.

In January, three companies controlling a quarter of the city's waste market threatened to pull out of the commercial sector if the price cap imposed by the waste trade commission was not raised.

According to Cohen and Frankel, "bargaining against a consolidated private carting industry could throw the city for a loss."

The long-term plan will create more difficulties for New York because three of the six proposed local waste facilities will be owned and operated by private companies rather than the DES.

Fresh Kills recent closure provides New York's leaders with both an opportunity and a challenge to control the cost of waste management.

As landfill space continues to diminish, stricter regulations on new landfills by state and federal environmental protection agencies could increase the cost of new landfills and limit future landfill capacity.

New York City may have to deal with economic and political shocks in the coming years, if it fails to plan for long-term waste management.