Despite the devastating impact of the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center, New York City should rebound fully from the tragedy, according to Columbia economics professors David Weinstein and Donald Davis.

Their conclusions are based on a study of population growth in Japanese cities that suffered through earthquakes in 1923 and 1995 and bombing during World War II. Following these catastrophes, many Japanese cities suffered greater population and building losses than did New York on September 11. Yet, these cities rebounded not only to where they had been before the attacks, but actually saw their populations rise to levels that one would have predicted based on their prewar size and growth rates. Not only was there no discernable impact from bombing on city size 20 years after the end of the war, recovery from earthquakes seems, if anything, faster. Following the 1923 earthquake in Tokyo and the 1995 earthquake in Kobe, both cities recovered their pre-quake populations within five years.

"Cities are robust," said Weinstein, also the research director of the Center for Japanese Economy and Business at Columbia's Graduate School of Business. "New York will come back. There's no question in my mind."

Bolstering Weinstein and Davis' prediction is the theory of locational fundamentals, which contends that the unchanging characteristics of locations determines population size. For instance, cities tend to exist in flat areas that are close to water. In New York State, Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse, Albany, and New York City all share these characteristics.

"If there is something that destroys buildings and kills many people, there are locational incentives to rebuild," said Weinstein. "New York's natural harbor and proximity to the Hudson River are constants that suggest the city will rebound from the tragedy of September 11."

New York Times columnist Paul Krugman described the findings in his October 3 column.

The authors acknowledged that their study measured population growth, not the expansion of specific industries. However, they are currently examining additional data from Japan that explores how specific sectors of the economy rebound from catastrophes.