An estimated 38,000 families were cut off from welfare assistance on Nov. 30 when federal time limits on their benefits expired. This comes at an especially difficult time as jobs in the city are more scarce than they have been in years.

This means low income families could become more vulnerable, according to a report released recently from Columbia's National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP) Research Forum on Children, Families, and the New Federalism. The report, "Policies Affecting New York City's Low-Income Families," highlights the urgency of the issues facing the city's most vulnerable families.

The report reviews New York City's progress in implementing welfare reform since 1996 and highlights several practical areas where the city can do more to help its most vulnerable low-income families.

"Including all New Yorkers as we recover and rebuild New York City will be an issue of tremendous importance for the next mayor," said Barbara B. Blum, co-author of the report, director of the Research Forum and senior lecturer at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia. The report offers several concrete recommendations to city, state and federal policymakers to help make the next phase of welfare reform throughout the five boroughs more effective.

"New York City has in just a few years made commendable progress in transforming its welfare system from one that emphasized provision of cash assistance to one that seeks to help people support their families by working," said Hugh O'Neill, a co-author of the report and president and founder of Appleseed, Inc. "The transformation is not yet completed, and we are entering a period where the challenges we face may be greater."

Blum and O'Neill note that a slowdown in the city's economy—already evident before the Sept. 11 attack on the World Trade Center—will imperil the progress the city has made in moving people from welfare to work. According to a report released by NYC Comptroller Alan G. Hevesi on Oct. 4, the city could lose an estimated 115,300 jobs this fiscal year as a result of the attack. Further, the repercussions of the attack could cost the city's economy between $90 billion and $105 billion over the next two years. The immense impact of the Sept. 11 tragedy on the city's economy makes the challenges described in the NCCP report even greater and more urgent.

Blum notes that despite dramatic declines in New York's overall welfare caseload and with the federal time limits on individual cash assistance, thousands of low income people are likely to lose much needed support services. At the same time, more children not living with a parent (so-called child-only cases) are entering the city's welfare rolls.