Robert S. Erikson, professor of political science, has co-authored the paper, "Forecasting House Seats from Generic Congressional Polls," an election forecast that discusses the possibility of Democrats winning a majority of the House seats - currently a heavily analyzed topic in midterm elections.
After reviewing voter polls for the upcoming Nov. 7 Congressional elections, Erikson and his colleagues from Dartmouth College and Temple University forecast that Democrats should gain 32 seats in the House, making Democratic control of that chamber "a near certainty."
The prediction is part of detailed analysis of recent polls that examines current trends and compares these responses with those from midterm elections going back to 1946. Using computer simulation based on statistical analysis of the historical data, the political scientists say the current patterns show Democrats making big gains. Erikson co-authored the analysis with Dartmouth's Joseph Bafumi and Christopher Wlezien of Temple.
"If current trends in the congressional generic ballot polling persist (which they have in past elections), the Democrats are near certain to win control of the House," the three write in an analysis released this week. Of course, in the world of election politics, unexpected events could make a change in the predictions. One telling factor, say the researchers, is the lead Democrats have over Republicans in these polls. If the Democrats hold on to a lead of at least eight points among likely voters, a Democratic majority in the House is very likely. "If the lead dips below this level, the Republicans can rekindle their hope of holding the House," they conclude.
A blog entry on the paper can be found on pollster.com.
On election night, two members of the Columbia faculty will be providing behind-the-scenes political analysis for major news stations. Erikson will be stationed at CBS, and Robert Shapiro, professor of political science, will be working with ABC on exit poll analysis.
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