Dick Morris

New York is a great place to talk politics these days, and Monday, the School of International and Public Affairs(SIPA) brought together seasoned campaign watchers to talk about who they think is really leading in the Republican and Democratic presidential primaries; if former Senator Bill Bradley can appeal to enough voters; and who is likely to win the New York Senate race.

Adjunct professor Jeffrey Pollock, president of the polling firm Global Strategies, organized and moderated the panel, which included Dick Morris, a former advisor to President Clinton and a Columbia College graduate; Michael Tomasky, New York magazine political writer; and Jay DeDapper, WNBC channel 4 political reporter.

In particular, panelists looked closely at the race between Vice President Al Gore and former Senator Bill Bradley, discussing how each could distinguish himself from the other when they have such strikingly similar platforms.

Panelists agreed that Bradley's success has come as a surprise, and DeDapper said that while critics like to say Bradley is too boring to appeal to voters, the one thing he's noticed in covering the Gore/Bradley campaign is that voters do connect with Bradley in unexpected ways.

"I think there's a slickness fatigue," DeDapper said. "I think there's a visceral reaction to a packaged candidate that is seen to have his soundbites together and his TV image together, and Al Gore is the embodiment of that. I think that Bradley appeals to people in a way we're not conditioned to think of."

Tomasky and Morris agreed that while Gore has made a clear attempt to distance himself from President Clinton and the Monica Lewinsky scandal, he could ultimately hurt himself by also removing himself from what Morris said is outstanding work he has done behind the scenes throughout Clinton's presidency.

"What they tell you is that Clinton runs the White House," said Morris. "The myth is that Hillary runs the White House. But the reality is that Gore has been running the White House. Fifty percent of the work has been handed to Gore, and it's usually the issues that are tough."

Tomasky agreed and said Gore has not touted his White House work enough. "Isn't it amazing that he's running for president and you don't know these things?" he said. "Gore has one great strength and that is this knowledge and experience."

But DeDapper said analysts have been too quick to dismiss Gore as the loser, when it is still so early in the campaign. "We're writing the obituary here of Al Gore, and it's been written by many of us. But it's really early to be saying that Al Gore isn't going to get it together."

On the Republican front, panelists agreed that John McCain will pose a realistic threat to George W. Bush. Tomasky said McCain will be the "key to the whole thing," and DeDapper agreed, saying that recently, "McCain had the look of a winner" and had attracted the bulk of the coverage.

Tomasky compared this election to past presidential elections of the 1980's, in which he said conservatism was on an upswing. "In 1980, all the intellectual momentum was with conservative thinktanks," he said. "We've got a budget surplus (now)... and liberalism is on an upswing, while conservatism is descending."

The panelists also talked about the upcoming senate race. Monday, neither candidate had announced candidacy, though Tuesday, Clinton said she officially plans to announce her candidacy in January.

Participants disagreed as to who would win - Morris said Giuliani has as good as won while Tomasky felt that Clinton still has a good chance.

But all agreed that it is still far too early to predict a Senate winner.

"There's a hyperventilating quality to the coverage of this race that's completely insane," said Tomasky. "It's still 11 months before the primary is set to take place."