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Events at SIWPS, 2006-07
The Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
International Security Policy Speakers Series presents:
John Mueller, "Iraq, Terrorism, and Threat Exaggeration"
Where: Room 1302
International Affairs Building
Columbia University
When: Thursday, April 25, 12:30-2pm.
John Mueller holds the Woody Hayes Chair of National Security
Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at
Ohio State University. He is currently working on terrorism,
particularly on the reactions (or over-reactions) it often
inspires. His book on the subject, "Overblown: How Politicians and
the Terrorism Industry Inflate National Security Threats, and Why
We Believe Them," was published in November 2006 by Free Press.
Mueller is the author of "Retreat from Doomsday: The Obsolescence
of Major War" (Basic Books, 1989), "Policy and Opinion in the Gulf
War" (University of Chicago Press, 1994), and "Quiet Cataclysm:
Reflections on the Recent Transformation of World Politics"
(HarperCollins, 1995). Mueller has also published scores of
articles in such journals as International Security, American
Political Science Review, Security Studies, American Journal of
Political Science, and the Journal of Conflict Resolution.
Lunch will be served.
The Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University, presents:
"Every Intervention Must End: Foreign Military Interventions and the Timing of Disengagement, from Beirut to Baghdad"
a talk by
Stephanie Pezard
Saltzman Visiting Scholar
Associate Researcher
Small Arms Survey
Graduate Institute of International Studies
University of Geneva
chaired by
Jack Snyder
Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Relations
Columbia University
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
12:15pm-2pm
Room 1302, 13th Floor
School of International and Public Affairs
420 W. 118th St.
New York City
Although the literature on foreign military intervention is replete with analyses of why countries initiate interventions, much less has been written on the opposite decision to withdraw troops. This latter question is of particularly crucial importance when the intervention undertaken repeatedly fails to fulfil the political objectives for which it was initiated, or appears unlikely to do so at an acceptable cost to the intervener. A close analysis of the cases of the American and French interventions in Lebanon in 1982–1984, as well as the American intervention in Somalia in 1992–1994, suggests that the military setbacks experienced by the intervening power can be classified according to a typology that predicts whether they will be followed by an escalatory move or disengagement.
Focusing particularly on the “major” setbacks – such as the bombings against the US marines and French paratroopers barracks in Beirut, as well as the Black Hawk Down incident in Mogadishu– that led to the decision to withdraw in these particular cases, the method of process tracing is used to analyze the successive policy options that political actors raised or dismissed in ensuing policy debates. This study of the decision-making process suggests that withdrawal is a complex process occurring in successive–but, to some extent, predictable–stages that the common characterization of “cutting and running” largely fails to adequately capture.
The Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies presents:
Takedown: The 3rd Infantry Division’s Twenty-One Day Assault on
Baghdad, with Retired U.S. Army Infantry Officer Jim Lacey.
When: Friday, April 13, 12:30- 2pm.
Where: Room 410, International Affairs Building (SIPA)
Columbia University
For three weeks the 3rd Infantry Division, in its drive to capture
Baghdad, was in almost continuous brutal combat. Every armored
vehicle in its assault battalions was hit by rockets, with some
absorbing well over a dozen hits. Takedown is the untold story of
one of the most vicious and brilliant campaigns in the annals of
American military history. Drawing extensively on personal
accounts by the soldiers who did the fighting—and interviews with
senior Iraqi officers—it offers an unprecedented first-hand story
of combat from the Kuwaiti border to the streets of Baghdad,
presenting dramatic eyewitness accounts of some of the most brutal
engagements of any war.
Jim Lacey is a retired U.S. Army infantry officer who works as a
military analyst for the Institute for Defense Analyses. He is
co-author of The Iraqi Perspectives Report: Saddam's Senior
Leadership on Operation Iraqi Freedom From the Official U.S. Joint
Forces Command Report, published in 2006, and editor of Fresh From
the Fight, a collection of essays on the war in Iraq, set to
publish later this year.
During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Lacey worked for Time magazine as
an embedded journalist and was with the 101st Airborne Division
during the march to Baghdad. He has published numerous articles and
editorials on international and military affairs in many of the
nation's leading newspapers and magazines.
Refreshments will be served.
The Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies International
Security Policy Speakers Series presents:
Amy B. Zegart, "Jihadist Plans for Iraq: Why Victory in Iraq
Matters"
Where: Room 802, 8th Floor
International Affairs Building
Columbia University
When: Thursday, April 5, 4-6pm.
The public and private statements of al-Qa'ida show that they view
this as a major battlefield in their global war with the US. They
described the US as "defeated" in the summer of 2005 and since then
have begun to implement their plans for Iraq, plans that reflect
their global focus and their desire for an Islamic state in the
Arab and Islamic heartland. Mary Habeck argues that a precipitous
withdrawal from Iraq, in addition to other negative consequences,
will also be a transformative victory for the jihadis and a turning
point in the war on terror.
She is an Associate Professor in Strategic Studies and teaches
courses on military history and strategic thought at the Paul H.
Nitze School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins
University. Before coming to SAIS, she was a professor in Yale
University's history department for eleven years. She is the
author of "Knowing the Enemy: Jihadist Ideology and the War on
Terror" (Yale, 2005), "Storm of Steel: The Development of Armor
Doctrine in Germany and the Soviet Union, 1919-1939" (Cornell,
2003) and has co-edited two volumes on the First World War and the
Spanish Civil War. She is currently working on two more books on
the war on terror entitled "Attacking America: How Jihadis Are
Fighting Their 200-Year War" and "Fighting the Enemy: the US and
its War against the Jihadis."
Refreshments will be served.
The Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies presents
the Second Annual Saltzman Forum:
“Intelligence Reform in the Age of Terror: An Assessment”
When: Friday, March 23, 2007, 9am-12:30pm
Where: Room 1512, 15th floor, International Affairs Building
School of International and Public Affairs
420 West 118th Street
New York City
Panelists include:
General William E. Odom-
Former Director of the National Security Agency; Assistant Chief of
Staff for Intelligence; Military Assistant to the President’s
Assistant for National Security Affairs
Mark M. Lowenthal-
Former Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and
Production; Staff Director of House Permanent Select Committee on
Intelligence; and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for
Intelligence Research
Robert L. Jervis-
Head of Declassification Panel for the Director of Central
Intelligence Agency; Consultant to CIA and National Intelligence
Council; Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Relations
Richard K. Betts-
Former member, National Security Advisory Panel for the Director of
Central Intelligence; Staff of Senate Select Committee on
Intelligence; author of Enemies of Intelligence; Director, Arnold
A. Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
Refreshments will be served
The Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies presents:
"Peace as Emergent Reality," with SIPA Professor and CICR Director
Andrea Bartoli
When: Tuesday, February 27, 2-4pm
Where: Room 1102, International Affairs Building
Columbia University
Morningside Campus
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement for Mozambique was signed in Rome on October 4, 1992. A significant role during the long years that
led to the successful conclusion was played by the Community of
Sant'Egidio, an international non-governmental organization that
facilitated, observed, mediated and supported the peace process.
The speaker has been an observer of this unfolding process and has
direct access to the actors, the issues and the process that led to
the positive conclusion of the war in Mozambique. This presentation
is an attempt to elaborate useful insights into the peace process
that might provide useful indication for future strategies.
Andrea Bartoli currently serves as Director of the International
Conflict Resolution Program at Columbia University. His research
focuses on regional conflict resolution in Southern Africa,
conflict resolution and the role of religions, and learning
organization in the field of conflict resolution.
Refreshments will be served.
The Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies and the
Comparative Defense Studies Program at Columbia University present:
“States, Proxies and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from the Israeli
Case," with Professor Hillel Frisch.
When: Thursday, February 22, 12:30-2:00 pm
Where: Room 1302, International Affairs Building
Columbia University
This paper looks at patterns of counterinsurgency across Israel's
three insurgency arenas, Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon, and
demonstrates the importance of external states, i.e., Egypt, Syria,
Iran and Jordan, and their relationships to non-state actors in
determining the effectiveness of counter-insurgency. According to
Professor Frisch, the relationship to outside state actors and
environments is crucial to achieving and sustaining counter
insurgency efforts. Israel has thus far been able to sustain
counter-insurgency efforts in the West Bank because of Jordanian
cooperation, has been less successful in Gaza due to Egypt's
non-cooperation and faces the toughest challenge against the
Hizbullah because of the massive support it receives from Iran and
Syria. This is topic has not been researched sufficiently and is
under-theorized, yet has important policy implications for the
United States, particularly in Iraq.
Hillel Frisch is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Politics,
Bar-Ilan University, Israel and research at the BESA Institute. He
has written books and numerous articles on Palestinian politics and
Arab politics and security affairs and is currently working on a
book on the Palestinian quest for a military and a study on the
politics of Palestinian Assassinations.
Cosponsored by: Lionpac, South Asian Law Students Association, The Earth Institute, American Jewish Committee, Towards Reconciliation, India Initiative, Towards Reconciliation, Jewish Law Students Association, South Asian Business Association, The President's and Provost's Student Event Fund, and the Multicultural Business Association
India, America, Israel: Emerging Relations
Monday, February 12, 7:00 PM
102 Jerome Greene Hall (in the Law School, 116th and Amsterdam)
Come hear Ambassador Raminder Singh Jassal, current Charge De Affairs to the Embassy of India in the US and former Ambassador to Israel, together with David Harris, Executive Director of the American Jewish Committee, and other speakers discuss the amazing things that have been happening between India, the US, and Israel over the past decade. Other speakers will include: Mandakini Sud, Internal Communications Specialist for the Bureau for Development Policy at the United Nations Development Program (UNDP); and Nissim Reuben Program Officer of Indian-Jewish American Relations for the American Jewish Committee. Joydeep Mukherji, Director of Standard and Poor's Sovereign Ratings Group, will moderate. An Indian food reception will follow (Kosher and Vegetarian).
Please RSVP by Friday, February 9th by visting http://progpalace.hypermart.net/indian.shtml or clicking here
If you have any questions relating to the event, please contact Ari Gardner (arigardner@gmail.com) or Nirvikar Jassal (nsj2106@columbia.edu)
The Saltzman Institute for War & Peace Studies, the Middle East
Institute and the Comparative Defense Studies Program at Columbia
University present:
Efraim Inbar, “Israeli-Turkish Relations and the Robustness of
Realism”
Where: Room 1302
International Affairs Building
Columbia University
When: Monday, February 12, 12:30- 2:00pm
Since the beginning of 1990s Turkish-Israeli relations moved into
high gear even as political Islam surged in Turkey and the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict became more religiously charged. To a
realist, the formation of a partnership between these two states
would validate realist assumptions about strategic considerations
in political decisions. Today, however, political challenges to the
Ankara-Jerusalem entente have emerged. Professor Inbar will discuss
changing Turkish-Israeli relations using international relations
theory as the basis for his analysis.
Efraim Inbar is a Professor in Political Studies at Bar-Ilan
University in Israel and the Director of its Begin-Sadat (BESA)
Center for Strategic Studies. His area of specialization is Middle
Eastern strategic issues with a special interest in the politics
and strategy of Israeli national security. He has written over 50
articles in professional journals, edited numerous collections of
articles, and is the author of four books The Israeli-Turkish
Entente (2001); Rabin and Israel's National Security (1999); Labor
Party Positions on National Security (1991); Outcast Countries in
the World Community (1985). Professor Inbar received his M.A. and
Ph.D. (Political Science) at the University of Chicago. He served
as visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University (2004), at
Georgetown University (1991-92), and visiting scholar at the
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (1996). Prof.
Inbar was appointed as a Manfred Warner NATO Fellow (1998), was a
visiting fellow at the (London) International Institute for
Strategic Studies (2000), and was the recipient of the Onassis
Fellowship (2003).
The Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies Presents:
Ambassador Andrzej Towpik-Permanent Mission of Poland to the UN
"Shaping National Security Policy in Poland in Post-Cold War Europe"
Date: Wednesday, January 24, 2007
Time: 12:00-1:30PM
Location: Saltzman Seminar Room, Room 1302 IAB
Ambassador Towpik has served in his position since 2004.
Previously, Ambassador Towpik was the Polish Under-Secretary of
State for Defense Policy from 2002 to 2004, and from 1997-2002
served as Head of the Polish Permanent Representation to NATO.
Ambassador Towpik will discuss the challenges Poland faced in
creating a cohesive National Security policy in the aftermath of
the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies International
Security Policy Speakers Series presents:
Amy B. Zegart, "U.S. INTELLIGENCE AND THE ORIGINS OF 9/11"
Where: Lindsay Rogers Room (Room 707) 7th Floor
International Affairs Building
Columbia University
When: Thursday, January 25, 4-5:30pm.
Amy Zegart is Associate Professor at UCLA's School of Public
Affairs, where she teaches courses in U.S. foreign policy and
public management. Zegart has been featured by The National Journal
as one of the ten most influential experts in intelligence reform.
She worked on the Clinton Administration's National Security
Council staff in 1993, served as a foreign policy advisor to the
Bush-Cheney 2000 presidential campaign, and has testified before
the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. Her research focuses
on the design problems of U.S. national security agencies.
She received a Ph.D from Stanford and her first book, "Flawed By
Design: The Evolution of the CIA,JCS and NSC" won the highest
national dissertation award in Political Science. More recently,
she has written about adaptation failures in the CIA and FBI, the
role of presidential commissions, organizational problems in
nonproliferation policy, and port security. Her book about why U.S.
intelligence agencies adapted poorly to the rise of terrorism after
the Cold War is forthcoming from Stanford University Press. Zegart
has served as a national security analyst for CNN, MSNBC, Fox News
Channel, & NPR. Because of the need to end early, the talk will
begin at 4pm sharp. A 48-page selection from her book manuscript is
available in the Saltzman Institute for those who wish to read it
before her appearance.
The Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies at Columbia
University cordially invites you to:
“Going Through Crunch Time in the South Caucasus,” with former
Georgian Ambassador to the United States, Canada and Mexico Tedo
Japaridze.
When: Thursday, January 4, 2007. Noon – 1:30 PM
Where: Saltzman Seminar Room (13th floor) Room 1302, International
Affairs Building
School of International and Public Affairs
Morningside Campus
Columbia University
As components of the wider Black Sea region that sits on the edges
of three strategic equations (the European, the Middle Eastern and
the Eurasian) the countries in the South Caucasus possess
significant strategic importance to the United States, the European
Union, the OCSE, NATO and Russia. All three South Caucasian
countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) are in the midst of a
painful and turbulent transition period, which some experts admit
is more tumultuous than the analogous transitions that other
countries in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe have
experienced. Meanwhile, internal conflict is threatening to hamper
the development of the region. Former Ambassador Japaridze will
discuss the most important issues facing these countries, including
the ongoing state-building process, and the current and future state
of Georgia-Russian relations.
Former Ambassador Tedo Japaridze (born in Tbilisi, Georgia) enjoyed
a distinguished career as a diplomat, educator and international
businessman. He was the Georgian Ambassador to the U.S., Canada and
Mexico for eight years, where he spearheaded the efforts to link the
energy sources of the Caucasus region to the energy needs of the
West. Ambassador Japaridze was a Senior PhD Research Fellow, at
the USA and Canada Studies Institute, at the Academy of Sciences in
the Soviet Union from 1977 to 1989. He received his Bachelors degree
from Tbilisi State University’s Faculty of Western European
Languages and Literature. He has written numerous articles and
books on U.S-Soviet relations and Georgian-American relations,
European security, regional security in the South Caucasus, and
post-Soviet affairs.
Refreshments will be served.
The Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies presents: "U.S. National Security in the Wake of the Midterm Elections," a conversation with Robert D. Kaplan.
When: Friday, November 17, 12-2 PM
Where: Lerner Hall, Room 477
Morningside Campus
Columbia University
Robert D. Kaplan is national correspondent for the Atlantic Monthly and author of The Arabists, Balkan Ghosts, Imperial Grunts, Eastward to Tartary, and The Coming Anarchy, Mr. Kaplan will offer his views on North Korea, the Middle East, the Global War on Terror, and his recent travels with the U.S. military.
This event is co-sponsored by the Columbia University Forum on Political Violence, U.S. Military Veterans of Columbia University, Media and Communications in War and Peace, and SIPA's online policy forum, The Morningside Post (www.themorningsidepost.com).
The Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies International
Security Policy Speakers Series presents:
Stephen P. Rosen, "New Nuclear Interactions"
Where: Lindsay Rogers Room (Room 707) 7th Floor
International Affairs Building
Columbia University
When: Thursday, November 2, 4-6pm.
Stephen Peter Rosen is director of John M. Olin Institute for
Strategic Studies and Beton Michael Kaneb Professor of National
Security and Military Affairs at Harvard University. He was awarded
a prize by Harvard University in 2002, the Harvard College
Professorship, in recognition of excellence in undergraduate
teaching. Professor Rosen is the author of "Winning the Next War:
Innovation and the Modern Military," which won the 1992 Furniss
Prize for best first book on national security affairs awarded by
the Mershon Center at Ohio State University, and of "Societies and
Military Power: India and its Armies." He has recently completed a
project on strategy and the biology of cognition, and his book "War
and Human Nature" was published by Princeton University Press in
2004. Professor Rosen is on the Board of Visitors of the Joint
Forces Command and advisor to the United States Department of
Defense and Central Intelligence Agency.
The Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies at Columbia
University presents:
Kathy Roth-Douquet and Frank Schaeffer, co-authors of "AWOL: the
Unexcused Absence of America’s Upper Classes from Military Service"
followed by comments from Professor Richard Betts, Director of the
Saltzman Insitute, Elyse Ross of the College Democrats, and Matt
Sanchez of the College Republicans.
When: Wednesday, October 11, 2006, 12:30- 2:00pm
Where: 420 W 118th Street,
Room 801, Int'l Affairs Building
Morningside Campus, Columbia University
In contrast to previous generations, American elites now have little
personal connection to the military forces that bear the burdens of
national defense. This gap creates misunderstandings and raises
significant questions about political responsibility, social
equity, and institutional leadership. Should something be done to
close the gap? What consequences follow, whether or not the gap is
addressed? The authors of this book, a Democrat and a Republican,
collaborated to explore the issue and develop proposals for
resolving it.
The Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, Columbia University
presents:
“Resistance is Futile: The Nuclear Revolution and the Persistence of US Unipolar Preponderance,” by H. Campbell Craig, Professor of Politics and International Relations at Southampton University, UK
Date: September 29, 2006, 12:30pm
Location: Room 1302, International Affairs Building
420 West 118th Street
New York City
Professor Craig’s lecture will seek to explain the failure of states
to balance against American power since the end of the Cold War.
Over the past fifteen years, the gap between the United States and
all of its would-be rivals in military capabilities has grown
enormously. Over the past five years, the United States has acted
in an increasingly unilateralist and unpopular manner. Yet none of
these potential rivals have even begun to attempt to match American
military power; nor have they formed military alliances to
counteract the United States. As William Wohlforth has written,
"The absence of balancing is a fact."
According to Professor Craig, would-be rivals to the United States
have no desire to wage war against it because they understand that
this can only mean their destruction. They could choose to develop
a nuclear arsenal with the aim of establishing a condition of mutual
assured destruction with the United States, but such a course
entails decades of enormous costs and risks. A far more attractive
option for these states is to cede preponderance to the US and
develop small, invulnerable nuclear arsenals that provide for them
a minimum deterrent. .
Professor Craig has taught at international relations at Southampton
and Yale University. He holds an M.A. from the University of
Chicago, and a PhD in U.S. Diplomatic History from Ohio University.
His publications include Destroying the Village: Eisenhower and
Thermonuclear War (1998); Glimmer of a New Leviathan: Total War in
the Realism of Niebuhr, Morgenthau, and Waltz (2003); and The
Atomic Bomb and the Origins of the Cold War, co-authored with
Sergei Radchenko and Yuri Smirnov (forthcoming).
Date: September 22: Professor Richard Betts, Arnold A. Saltzman Professor of War and Peace Studies, will moderate the discussion Friday, September 22, beginning at 12:00 p.m. in Room 1501 of the International Affairs Building, Morningside Campus.
Panelists will include:
Lisa Anderson, James T. Shotwell Professor of International
Relations, and Dean, School of International and Public Affairs
Robert Jervis, Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of Political Science
Gary Sick, Senior Research Scholar, Middle East Institute and
Adjunct Professor of International Affairs
Jack Snyder, Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International
Relations
The Harriman Institute and the School of International and Public
Affairs, Columbia University, present:
Building Islamic States at the Edge of Empire: Historical
Reflections on the North Caucasus
Date: September, 15th 2006
Time: 2:30pm
Location: Room 1219, International Affairs Building
420 W. 118th Street
New York City
Panel Discussion
"Shamil's Imamate: its Role and Significance"
Moshe Gammer (Middle Eastern and African History, Tel Aviv
Univerity)
"Islam and Politics in Post-Imperial Space: the North Caucasus,
1917-1918"
Michael Reynolds (Near Eastern Studies, Princeton University)
The panel will be moderated by Professor Mark von Hagen (Harriman
Institute, Columbia University)
The nuances of the North Caucasian past are often ignored, while the
current conflicts in this region are read in terms of historical
determinism, as though the ways things are now is the way they
always were and always will be. New readings of this neglected
history stand to tell different stories about a region which is
often discussed but rarely understood.
The speakers will examine familiar issues in North Caucasian history
from fresh perspectives. Moshe Gammer will explore the influence and
legacy of Imam Shamil, who created and maintained a state for
twenty-five years which united Chechnya and Dagestan. Michael
Reynolds will look at the relationship between Islam and politics
as the Russian Empire disintegrated and revolution swept through
the North Caucasus one the eve of the formation of the the Soviet
Union. They will consider the many ways in which the North
Caucasian mountaineers negotiated the task of creating indigineous
forms of governmentality, responding both to the exigencies of
imperial power and to realities which predated contact with Russia.
A discussion will follow the presentations.
Moshe Gammer's books Muslim Resistance to the Tsar: Shamil and the
Conquest of Chechnia and Daghestan (1994; Russian translation 1998)
and The Lone Wolf and the Bear. Three Centuries Chechen Defiance of
Russian Power (2006) together provide the most comprehensive
account of Northeast Caucasian history available in English. He is
a Senior Lecturer of Middle Eastern and African History at Tel Aviv
Univerity.
Michael Reynolds is currently working on a book project tentatively
titled "Shattering Empires: the Ottoman-Russian Struggle for the
Caucasus and Anatolia." His article "Myths and Mysticism: A
Longitudinal Perspective on Islam and Conflict in the North
Caucasus" was recently published in the journal Middle Eastern
Studies. He is an Assistant Professor of Near Eastern Studies at
Princeton University.
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