Second Annual Saltzman Forum "Intelligence Reform in the Age of Terror: An Assessment"

“Now, why reform?  Why did the Congress decide to reform?  As I saw it, I thought they were going to do it because of 9/11 and the mistaken intelligence about Iraq before the invasion. And as I sat in these committees and listened and tried to add some light to what seemed to me to be pits of darkness, it seemed that the rationale for the reform was, We must have an intelligence community which prevents the President from making mistakes.  In other words, the assumption – the unwritten assumption or the unspoken assumption – was that, given the right intelligence Presidents will always make the right decisions.  Now, your suspicion should have been very high at that point.  But that was the driving rationale again and again.”

-General William E. Odom

“Whoever uses the phrase “connecting the dots about intelligence,” you should turn off your hearing aid right away, it just does not, either the person is being dishonest or doesn’t understand and it just is not helpful.  The analogy of course has its limits.  But if you want the signal, the noise ratio is a much better place to start…Alright, more specifically what are analytic problems and the solutions come from being aware and thinking about it better and better methodology.  One problem I think is the premature closure.  We know from research in psychology and how people think that for probably good evolutionary reasons, we’re really hard-wired to jump to conclusions quickly.  Back out there in the evolutionary times when you're out in the field or out in the savanna and something moves in the bush, you better decide very quickly whether it’s the wind or a lion.” 

-Professor Robert Jervis

On March 23rd, 2007 Columbia University’s Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies hosted its second annual Saltzman Forum.  The forum, “Intelligence Reform in the Age of Terror: An Assessment”, brought together a panel of intelligence experts to discuss the impact of recent intelligence reform and ways to improve coordination within the intelligence community.  Panelists included SIWPS professors Richard Betts and Robert Jervis, former National Security Agency Director General William E. Odom and former Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis and Production Mark Lowenthal.

For the full transcript from the forum, click here.

"The Military Role in Establishing Democratic Governance"

"I think in the early days of this transition, it is predominantly a military operation, and it is a lesson in secure environment.  So the military forces are going to dominate the circumstance.  But this does have to be part of a coherent plan that has a vision that goes well beyond the military phase of this operation.  The only way to accomplish that in my view is to bring forward into the battle space those elements of the political-economic-social community of our government, rule of law, et cetera, et cetera, that begin the process from the earliest stage.  Now this may be one or two guys at the brigade level, or it may be one or two guys at the brigade level plus a Civil Affairs team that has different technical expertise.  Maybe the civilian guy that comes has got a great expertise on the formation of town counsels, how you create ground-level things.  What’s a good, smart way to have non-elective town counsels formed?"

-Major General (Ret) William Nash 

"We called the teachers and the parent teacher association to the schools and the Iraqis cleaned them out, brought in some furniture they could find, and we opened the schools after that, and they did it.  I mean they did it themselves.  It involved this whole endeavor, long days of working with the Iraqis and determining what their priorities were.  It involved holding court inside the courtyard of the police station.  And we had just long processions of tribal leaders, community leaders, doctors, teachers, civilian officials who ran the gas stations, the utilities, and I sat there and dealt with each one of these individuals.  And we made decisions, we passed judgments, we tried to resolve disputes between some of the tribes.  We did everything, we did all those kinds of things.  Mostly importantly, we made decisions.  At the end of the day we made a decision and then we directed resources to actually accomplish that.  One of the most important things is we actually performed.  And I knew that early on we had to our-perform traditional lines of authority if we want to have whatever we’re doing take root." 

-Lieutenant Colonel James Gavriles

On February 9th, the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies hosted a conference which brought together experts from academia, the military, the NGO sector and the government to discuss the role of the US military in democratization and governance. For a full transcript of the conference, click here.

Talks and Articles by SIWPS Professors

Recent talks by Professor Richard Betts include:

"Future Challenges to National Security," at the Georgetown University America and the World Project on February 26th

"Intelligence Reform," at New York University on February 27th

"Developing Problems in U.S. National Security Policy" at Dartmouth College on April 4

Professor Betts also published:

"Not With My Thucydides You Don't," The American Interest, vol. 2, no. 4 (March/April 2007)

To read the article, click here.

"Commentary on U.S. Relations with Iran", The National Interest, Spring 2007

To read the article, click here.

Talks and Articles by SIWPS Professors

Professor Kimberly Marten gave a lecture "Disrupting the Balance: Russian Efforts to Control Kazakhstan's Oil." at Radio Free Europe/RadioLiberty.

For coverage of this talk, click here.

Talks and Articles by SIWPS Professors

Professor Lincoln Mitchell's article "Beyond Bombs and Ballots: Dispelling Myths About Democracy Assistance" was published in The National Interest March/April 2007.

To read the article, click here.

Talks and Articles by SIWPS Professors

Professor Tonya Putnam presented a paper "Courts Without Borders: The Domestic Sources of U.S. Extraterritorial Regulation" at Yale Law School on March 9

Education in Crisis and Transition

Dana Burde and co-PI Columbia University economist Leigh Linden won grants from the National Science Foundation and the Spencer Foundation to continue the study in
Afghanistan "Protecting Children from War and Ensuring their Prospects for the Future: Educating in the Context of Crisis and Transition."  The combined total of the grants is approximately $600,000.

Program on Genocide Prevention

Andrea Bartoli and the Center for International Conflict Resolution (CICR) have received grants from Humanity United, Bridgeway and the Ford Foundation to support the creation of an executive training program on genocide prevention, with the first group of diplomats, intelligence and military officers convening at SIPA in January of 2007. The program will assemble emerging leaders from an influential and diverse group of countries to impart and foster exchange of knowledge about the warning signs of genocide and the possibility and practice of prevention.

For more information please click here.

Columbia University
Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies
420 West 118th Street
13th Floor, IAB
New York, NY 10027

www.columbia.edu/cu/siwps
-----------------------------------------------------------------
If you'd like to subscribe please contact Professor Lincoln Mitchell
or if you'd like to receive this newsletter by fax please call 212-854-4616

All Rights Reserved - Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies