Columbia University Pandemic Flu Response

After extensive study, experts believe that an influenza pandemic may well occur at some point in the foreseeable future. There were three recognized influenza pandemics in the 20th century: in 1918-19, 1957 and 1968. The 1918 pandemic caused more than a half million deaths in the United States, and an estimated 50 million deaths worldwide, making it the greatest natural disaster in history. The other pandemics, while much milder, were also responsible for significant illness and deaths.

It is impossible to predict the exact timing of the next pandemic, to know what influenza virus strain will be responsible or to foretell the degree of severity. While there has been much publicity about the “bird flu” (avian influenza H5N1), it may or may not cause an influenza pandemic. When an influenza pandemic does occur, it is expected that greater numbers of people will become ill - and remain ill for longer periods - than in normal influenza seasons.

The main defense against influenza is immunization. However, with currently available methods, it takes at least 4-6 months for a new influenza vaccine to be developed and produced in quantity. Therefore, it is likely that it would be several months after the appearance of a pandemic influenza strain before an effective vaccine would become available. While arrangements can be made to vaccinate students, staff and faculty in accordance with U.S. Public Health Service guidelines, colleges and universities must create advance response plans that do not rely on vaccine as a first measure.

Nonpharmaceutical Measures

Both before and after a vaccine is available, the application of effective nonpharmaceutical measures is recommended. Some measures that may be recommended include the following:

• Basic infection control measures of hand washing and cough etiquette
• Social distancing to reduce contact - e.g., possible cancellation of large public gatherings and changing educational and workplace environments and schedules
• Possible dismissal of students from school
• Isolation and treatment of suspected cases
• Voluntary home confinement of household members with confirmed or probable influenza and their caregivers until the sick person is well and can no longer spread infection (i.e., 7-10 days)

Impact on Higher Education

It is easy to imagine how universities might be affected significantly by a major influenza epidemic because of the diverse, global makeup of their campuses and the frequency of international travel among their students, faculty and staff. The impact on university operations might include unprecedented demands on student health services; the relocation of students in residence halls to accommodate the ill; the establishment of social isolation sites to limit the spread of disease; severe reductions in the work force because of illness of faculty, staff and families; and significant economic losses due to reduced productivity of the institution and unanticipated expenses. During a pandemic, between one-third and one-half of the work force can be expected to be absent at any one time, due to illness of employees or their families. 

The University is developing, and implementing as appropriate, effective systems to help communicate up-to-date information in the event of a pandemic or other emergency to students, faculty, staff and families. For additional information, please see the Planning and Response section of this website.