Natural Hazards

2002 USA Skin Cancer Statistics

	Over 1,000,000 new cases of primary skin cancer projected
		800,000: Basal cell carcinomas
		160,000: Squamous cell carcinomas
		53,600: Malignant melanomas
	# of deaths due to skin cancer – 9,600
	7,400 – Malignant melanomas

Malignant Melanoma

	Lifetime risks for malignant melanoma:

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Malignant Melanoma

	Melanoma is more common than any non-skin cancer among women between 25 and 29 years old.
	Every hour one person dies from melanoma.

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Ultraviolet (UV) Radiation

	UVC: Wavelength 200 - 280 nm
	UVB: Wavelength 280 - 320 nm
	UVA: Wavelength 320 - 400 nm

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Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC’s)

	Chemically inert
	Highly volatile
	Used in refrigeration, insulation fire extinguishers, air conditioners, aerosols

Molina and Rowland,
 Nature 1974

	In the stratosphere…
	CFCs : CCl2F2 ® CClF2•  +  Cl•
	Cl•  +  O3 ® ClO•  +  O2
	ClO• +  O ® Cl•  +  O2
	Net: O  +  O3 ® 2O2

Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer

	Signed 1987
	Ratified by over 50 countries
	Took effect 1989
	Development of HCFC’s and HFC’s
	Less Cl, more H.

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1987 EPA Estimates

	1% reduction in stratospheric ozone
	_  2% increase in UVB on Earth
	2-3% average global decrease in ozone, 1968-1988

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Sunbathing

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Lima vs Japan

	Why do earthquakes in Lima kill, on average, 50 times as many people, as comparably-sized earthquakes in Japan?
	Note: the two countries have comparable population densities.

Risk of Disaster

	Risk of Disaster = Hazard x Vulnerability
	Hazard = Probability of a potentially damaging natural phenomenon
	Vulnerability = Probability of a structure subject to a given hazard being damaged / destroyed

Japan vs Lima

	Different vulnerability…
	Parts of Lima have:
		overcrowded conditions
		unsuitable buildings
		dilapidated buildings
		limited movement options for inhabitants

Disaster Prevention

	Two Conceptual Approaches
	Dominant: Concentrates on hazard prevention / prediction
	Political: Concentrates on vulnerability seen as the consequences of socio-economic processes

Disaster Mitigation

	“Top down” mitigation
		before or after a disaster
		flood defenses
		disaster relief
		large scale
		high tech

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Top-Down Approach

	Seismo-geological zoning
	Construction of new housing
	Reconstruction of infrastructure
	New-housing credits
	Three years spent on zoning
	No reconstruction allowed during this time
	Housing built in marginally vulnerable areas
	Housing credits to middle class only

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Top-Down Approach

	Creating new farms in non-drought regions
	Digging wells
	Providing new potato seed
	Distribution of emergency food
	23% of planned new farms built
	No wells dug
	No potato seed distributed
	Food distribution successful

Critiques of “Top down” Mitigation

	Failure to address vulnerability
	Failure to involve people
	Susceptibility to manipulation

An important aspect of successful mitigation seems to be involvement of community-based organizations

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"Distribution of food supplies by..."

	Distribution of food supplies by local distribution committees
	Set up of local health committees
	Assistance from government technical staff

Natural disasters now kill an average of 100,000 people / yr, compared with
3 million / yr between 1900 and 1920

But the number affected by natural disasters has increased from 50 million / yr in 1950 to 200 million / yr now

Compound Disasters are Increasing

	Compound disasters: Disasters involving both natural and technological hazards
	Flooding along the Mekong river (2000/2001)
	* Partly bad luck - long monsoon season
	* Partly man made - illegal logging

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Compound Disasters

	The “developed” countries are certainly not immune from compound disasters!