What Is the relationship between “Hazard” and “Risk”?

“Hazard” is a process which has potential human impacts.

“Risk” is a function of both “hazard” and accumulated human assets.

“Vulnerability/resiliency” is related to ability to withstand/tolerate/respond.

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Multiple Hazard Model (1st G)

Multiple Hazard Model (3rd G)

Premise: Disaster Resilience is a characteristic of sustainable societies.

Disaster Resilience will enhance social development.

Disasters highlight social and economic inequities, and affect the poor disproportionately.

Thus, Disaster Resilience is an agent of poverty reduction and social stability.

Disaster Resilience provides an additional incentive for international investment.

The Context

Urban areas are experiencing rapid and unplanned growth. Proper growth can be channeled to increase prosperity and sustainability.

Cities are centers of education and culture, fueling innovation and creativity. But they are exposed to natural hazards.

The Context (Continued)

Building disaster resilient metropolitan areas accomplishes the dual goal of achieving social development and protecting the people and their built environment.

Integrated urban areas will be centers for the application of sustainable development strategies based on science and rational planning.

The Challenge

Three Components of Urban Disaster Resilience

Rational planning process that includes hazard mitigation as strategic element.

Portfolio of Integrated Risk Management Strategies, including financial, regulatory, and market incentives.

Emergency preparedness and response.

Examples: Three Cities

Caracas

Landslides, floods, earthquakes

outline hazard assessment process and relation to urban planning

Duality of mitigation and physical planning

Class distinctions and safety

Istanbul

Earthquakes

Prediction and faith in/role of science

Role of public awareness

How to pay: Benefit-cost analysis of mitigation alternatives and relation to policy

use of technology and economics

Accra

Chronic vs. catastrophic danger

Human activity and amplification of hazard

Integrated mitigation

Relation between city and hinterlands

Role in development

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"Water"

Water

Transportation

Communications

Electricity

Fuel and Natural Gas

Sewage

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"Robust and Reliable Water Supply..."

Robust and Reliable Water Supply System

Need for Water Storage Inside the City

Backup Power for Pumping Stations

Strong Water Distribution System

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Common construction practice in many countries results in residential buildings subject to “pancake collapse” in earthquakes.

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New and existing construction follows a pattern of inadequate mitigation.

Anatolian Plate is being squeezed westward at about
1 inch year^-1

The seismicity in the eastern Mediterranean is the consequence of large scale plate motions.

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The Istanbul Problem:

The 1999 earthquake sequence in northwestern Turkey probably has overstressed the segment of the North Anatolian Fault just south of Istanbul. The probability of a major earthquake striking Istanbul in the next thirty years has doubled.

The 1999 sequence killed 17,000 and caused extensive property damage. Public awareness of earthquake risk in Turkey is high. Reducing earthquake loss is a high priority policy problem in Turkey, and is a component of World Bank lending program. Turning point for city planning.

13M people, 75% illegal construction. Scenario earthquake predicted to kill 60-70000 and destroy 10,000 buildings.

We know enough to save lives. Can Istanbul be the leading example or large-scale mitigation?

Original Structure

Three Retrofitting
Strategies

Fragility Curves

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Accra

Chronic vs. catastrophic danger

Human activity and amplification of hazard

Integrated mitigation

Relation between city and hinterlands

Role in development

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Relation to agriculture

Economic development requires agricultural reform: soil fertility

Soil fertility affected by N-fixing crops

N-fixing crops hold water and reduce flooding in watershed

Solve 2 problems at once?

Sanitation

Remove garbage from floodways

Cheap energy?

Solve 3 problems at once?


	“Hazard” is a process which has potential human impacts.

	“Risk” is a function of both “hazard” and accumulated human assets.

	“Vulnerability/resiliency” is related to ability to withstand/tolerate/respond.


	Disaster Resilience will enhance social development.
	Disasters highlight social and economic inequities, and affect the poor disproportionately.
	Thus, Disaster Resilience is an agent of poverty reduction and social stability.
	Disaster Resilience provides an additional incentive for international investment.


	Urban areas are experiencing rapid and unplanned growth. Proper growth can be channeled to increase prosperity and sustainability.
	Cities are centers of education and culture, fueling innovation and creativity. But they are exposed to natural hazards.


	Building disaster resilient metropolitan areas accomplishes the dual goal of achieving social development and protecting the people and their built environment.
	Integrated urban areas will be centers for the application of sustainable development strategies based on science and rational planning.



		Rational planning process that includes hazard mitigation as strategic element.

		Portfolio of Integrated Risk Management Strategies, including financial, regulatory, and market incentives.

		Emergency preparedness and response.

		Examples: Three Cities


	Landslides, floods, earthquakes
	outline hazard assessment process and relation to urban planning
	Duality of mitigation and physical planning
	Class distinctions and safety


	Earthquakes
	Prediction and faith in/role of science
	Role of public awareness
	How to pay: Benefit-cost analysis of mitigation alternatives and relation to policy
	use of technology and economics


	Chronic vs. catastrophic danger
	Human activity and amplification of hazard
	Integrated mitigation
	Relation between city and hinterlands
	Role in development


	Water
	Transportation
	Communications
	Electricity
	Fuel and Natural Gas
	Sewage


	Robust and Reliable Water Supply System
	Need for Water Storage Inside the City
	Backup Power for Pumping Stations
	Strong Water Distribution System


	The 1999 earthquake sequence in northwestern Turkey probably has overstressed the segment of the North Anatolian Fault just south of Istanbul. The probability of a major earthquake striking Istanbul in the next thirty years has doubled.
	The 1999 sequence killed 17,000 and caused extensive property damage. Public awareness of earthquake risk in Turkey is high. Reducing earthquake loss is a high priority policy problem in Turkey, and is a component of World Bank lending program. Turning point for city planning.
	13M people, 75% illegal construction. Scenario earthquake predicted to kill 60-70000 and destroy 10,000 buildings.
	We know enough to save lives. Can Istanbul be the leading example or large-scale mitigation?


	Economic development requires agricultural reform: soil fertility
	Soil fertility affected by N-fixing crops
	N-fixing crops hold water and reduce flooding in watershed

	Solve 2 problems at once?


	Remove garbage from floodways
	Cheap energy?

	Solve 3 problems at once?