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The
1999 earthquake sequence in northwestern Turkey probably has
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overstressed
the segment of the North Anatolian Fault just south of
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Istanbul. The probability of a major earthquake
striking Istanbul in the
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next
thirty years has doubled.
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The
1999 sequence killed 17,000 and caused extensive property
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damage. Public awareness of earthquake risk in
Turkey is high.
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Reducing
earthquake loss is a high priority policy problem in Turkey,
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and
is a component of World Bank lending program. Turning point for
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city
planning.
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13M
people, 75% illegal construction. Scenario earthquake predicted to
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kill
60-70000 and destroy 10,000 buildings.
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We
know enough to save lives. Can
Istanbul be the leading example
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or
large-scale mitigation?
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