Columbia University

School of International and Public Affairs

International Conflict Resolution Program

PREVENTING INTERNATIONAL DEADLY CONFLICT IN THE GLOBAL AGE

THEORY, TOOLS, AND ACTORS (U6868)

Wednesdays 6:10 ­ 8:00 PM

Room IAB 1101

Instructor:

Ana Cutter ([email protected])

Program Officer, Conflict Prevention

Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs

170 East 64th Street

Telephone: (212) 838-4120

Conflict Prevention is the “Actions, policies, procedures or institutions undertaken in particularly vulnerable places and times in order to avoid the threat or use of armed force and related forms of coercion by states or groups as the way to settle the political disputes that can arise from the destabilizing effects of economic, social, political, and international change.” [1]Accordingly, prevention can take place at different point in the cycle of a conflict, i.e. "when there has not been a violent conflict in recent years…before significant violence signals possible escalations…when there has been recent violence but peace has been restored.”  

- Michael Lund, Preventing Violent Conflict (1996) 

                 I.     Course Methodology

This course will be held taught as a seminar class with an emphasis on discussion.  The semester is divided into three sections focusing respectively on: theory, tools, and actors. The first section of readings and discussion will focus on different approaches to understanding war and conflict, as well as at new learning on root causes of conflict in the post-Cold War period. The section on tools will look first at operational tools of prevention—those employed in the face of imminent crises, and second at structural tools of prevention, which refers to the long-term measures used to ensure that deadly conflict does not arise in the first place.  The final section will look at external actors (states, international and regional organizations, and international NGOs) and their potential roles in preventing international conflict. At the mid-point of the semester, students will participate in a scenario exercise using the case study of Macedonia.  The scenario process is an approach to facilitating discussion and is designed to challenge students to think creatively about the roles and capacity for action of different groups and organizations in situations of deadly conflict. 

This more theoretical and policy focused approach will be supplemented by the students work and presentation of case studies in conflict prevention.  After the fourth session, each class will break into two parts, the first half will be devoted to a discussion of the readings, and the second to the presentation and discussion of case studies by student teams.

                   II.     Objectives

1)    To provide students with an overview of the literature on deadly conflict and its prevention and encourage them to think critically about issues in international affairs.

2)    To explore the various strategies and tools developed by international actors seeking to prevent deadly conflict around the globe;

3)    To give students the opportunity to examine the theory and tools of conflict prevention in the context of a specific country or region that has experienced deadly conflict in the last 10 years.  

                     III.     Background

In a 2000 Foreign Affairs article Ted Robert Gurr, director of the Minorities at Risk Project at the University of Maryland, referred to conflict prevention as “the ‘preferred’ instrument of the new [international] regime.”  While one could argue that there is more rhetoric than action on the part of the international community in regards to conflict prevention, the concept of developing a proactive approach to deadly conflict and war is certainly receiving more attention within the community of people studying, writing, and working in international affairs.

This increased interest in conflict prevention and preventive action on the part of scholars and practitioners is due to a variety of factors, including:  1) A perceived rise in deadly conflict in the post-Cold War period; 2) The changing characteristics of conflict in this same period—most markedly the shift from inter- to intra-state conflicts, the rising tolls of civilians as victims, the increased access to modern weaponry, and the heightened awareness of the regional impacts of conflicts such as with refugees, environmental devastation, and economic crises; and 3)  The impact of the relatively recent technological capacity of those around the world to witness the horrors of war 24 hours a day on CNN.  All of these factors have led to a rising interest in developing international strategies that focus on the causes rather than the consequences of violence.

In 1997 the Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict published its Final Report.  Building on the argument that the international community must develop proactive rather than reactive strategies, the Final Report made three critical statements.  The first is that deadly conflict is not inevitable; second, the need to prevent conflict is increasingly urgent; and third, prevention is possible.  Following the lead of United Nations, which is integrating conflict prevention as a central theme to all its work, the major donor countries, the international and regional organizations and a diverse array of academic institutions and nongovernmental organizations have embraced conflict prevention as the solution. 

Using the Carnegie Commission’s Final Report as a point of orientation, the course will critically explore the concept of conflict prevention as it is evolving in international affairs in theory, in the development of policy strategies or tools, and in practice, with a specific focus on external actors.  There are at least as many skeptics as converts to the concept on conflict prevention.  The debate centers on the assertion by many theorists that violence in the international system is inevitable and that efforts on the parts of states and other actors to prevent conflict are futile.  Proponents of conflict prevention counter that violence is a choice made by people and their leaders, and that leaders and states are as capable of building peace as they are at making war—and that external actors such as others states, the United Nations, and non

governmental organizations, can play a constructive role in preventing deadly conflict around the world.

                     IV.     Readings

The majority of the assigned readings will come from the following books. These books can be bought at Labyrinth Books (536 W112th Street). All additional readings will be available on reserve at Lehman Library.

·                Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. Preventing Deadly Conflict: Final Report Summary. New York: Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1998.  This is available in its entirety on the website http://www.ccpdc.org

·                Crocker, Chester A., and Osler Hampson, Fen with Aall, Pamela. Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Conflict. Washington, D.C., United States Institute of Peace, 1996.

·                Kaldor, Mary. New Wars, Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press, 1999.

·                Ignatieff, Michael. The Warrior's Honor: Ethnic War and the Modern Conscience. Ontario: Owl Books, 1998.

Other books used in course include the following.

·       Barash, David P., ed. Approaches to Peace. New York: Oxford University Press, 2000.

·       Rubin, Barnett, ed. Cases and Strategies for Preventive Action. New York: The Century Foundation Press, 1998.

·       Rubin, Barnett. Blood on the Doorstep: The Politics of Preventive Action. Forthcoming 2001.

·       Cahill, Kevin M., ed. Preventive Diplomacy: Stopping Wars Before they Start. New York: Routledge and The Center for International Health and Cooperation, 2000.

Internet sites of interest to students include:

·                Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict at http://www.ccpdc.org

·                Organization of Economic Development Cooperation (OECD)/ Development Assistance Committee website at http://webnet1.oecd.org/oecd/pages/home/displaygeneral/0,3380,EN-home-notheme-2-no-no-no,00.html

·                 Lund, Michael. “A Toolbox to Respond to Conflict and Build Peace,” http://www.caii-dc.com/ghai/toolbox.htm

·                Transatlantic Internet Seminar Kosovo/a and Southeastern Europe (TISKSE) at http://www.rboston.com/bosch/
 

                   V.     Requirements

1)    Class Participation:  This is an essential part of the course.  Students are responsible for the assigned readings and are expected to come to class with a set of prepared discussion questions developed from the readings.  Each students will chose at least three sets of questions to type up and turn into the instructor as part of their participation grade. (30%)

2)    Scenario Debriefing:  During the week of October 10-17 the class will participate in a scenario exercise using the case study of Macedonia. After the exercise is completed, each student will prepare a short debriefing paper (1,000 words maximum) describing each students assigned role and activity during the scenario due in class on October 24. (20%)  

3)    Research Paper: Working in teams, students will prepare a 6,000 to 8,000-word comparative policy assessment of a key dimension of international conflict prevention efforts.  This paper should: 1) provide an overview of the issue, 2) identify the conflict prevention strategy or tool utilized in the context of at least two countries; 3) assess the overall success or failure of international engagement in each case, and; 4) suggest lessons to be learned. The course instructor must approve all topics and a proposed bibliography in advance. (Class Presentation 10%, Final Paper 40%)

Ø     Paper topics are due in class on September 19.  

Ø     Drafts or outlines of the paper will be presented and discussed in class beginning October 3.

Ø     Scenario Debriefing paper is due in class on October 24

Ø     Final paper is due Wednesday, November 28.  No extensions will be granted.

                     VI.     Agenda for classes

1) INTRODUCTION

 SEPTEMBER 5TH -- SESSION 1              Preventing Deadly Conflict: An Introduction Required Readings

·       Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict. Final Report, xvii- xlvi. http://www.ccpdc.org

·       Ignatieff, The Warrior's Honor, 3-71.

2) THEORY (Sessions 2-5)

These sessions will focus on the thinking on war and peace and international relations before and after the cold war. Readings in this unit also explore the debate among scholars about the peaceful nature of democracies.

  SEPTEMBER 12TH -- SESSION 2Old Wars and New WarsRequired Readings

·                Kaldor, New Wars, Old Wars, Chapters 2-5

·                Ignatieff, The Warrior's Honor, 72-190.

SEPTEMBER 19TH -- SESSION 3

Peace, Non-Violence, and the Democratic Peace Debate

Text Box: The peoples of our planet have a sacred right to peace…UN Declaration on the Right of Peoples to Peace, 1984    Required Readings

·                Young, Nigel. “Peace Movements in History.” In Approaches to Peace, edited by Barash, 228-237.

·                Mead, Margaret. “Warfare is Only an Invention—Not a Biological Necessity.” In Approaches to Peace, edited by Barash, 19-22.

·                Friedman, Thomas L. The Lexus and The Olive Tree. Farrar, Straus & Giroux: 2000, 195-218.

·                Snyder, Jack. “Democratization and War.” Foreign Affairs (Summer 1995): 79-

·                Allison, Graham and Owada, Hisashi. The Responsibilities of Democracies in Preventing Deadly Conflict. New York: Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1999. Available in the publications section on the Carnegie Commission web site at http://www.ccpdc.org.

* Optional viewing of PBS documentary A Force More Powerful: A Century of Nonviolent Conflict

 SEPTEMBER 26TH -- SESSION 4Roots of ViolenceRequired Readings

·                Ayoob, Mohammed. “State Making, State Breaking, and State Failure.” In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crocker, Hampson, and Aall, 37-51.

·                Collier, Paul and Hoeffler, Anke. “Greed and Grievance in Civil War,” World Bank paper, (2001) Available on World bank web site http://www.worldbank.org/research/conflict/papers/greedandgrievance.htm

·                Gurr, Ted Robert. “Minorities, Nationalists, and Ethnopolitical Conflict In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crocker, Hampson, and Aall, 53-78.

Guest Speaker: Kazuhide Kuroda, Post Conflict Unit, The World Bank (confirmed)

 OCTOBER 3RD ­ SESSION 5Perspectives on Conflict Prevention Required Readings

·                Bedjaoui, Mohammed. “ The Fundamentals of Preventive Diplomacy.” In Preventive Diplomacy, edited by Cahill, 29-50.

·                Baker, Pauline. “Conflict Resolution versus Democratic Governance: Divergent Paths to Peace?” In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crocker, Hampson, and Aall, 563-572.

·                Rubin. Blood on the Doorstep, chapter 7.

·                Stedman, Stephen John. “Alchemy for a New Order: Overselling ‘Preventive Diplomacy’” Foreign Affairs (Spring 1995).

·                Carment, David and Schnabel, Albrecht. “Conflict Prevention: Naked Emperor, Path to Peace, Grand Illusions or Just Difficult?” Paper presented at 41st Annual Convention of the International Studies Association, Reflection, Integration, Cumulation: International Studies Past and Future, Los Angeles, March 2000.

3)    TOOLS (Sessions 6-10)

 OCTOBER 10TH -- SESSION 6Tools of Conflict Prevention—Early WarningIntroduction to the Scenario Exercise

Text Box: Between the emotion and the response falls the shadow. T.S. Eliot

 Required Readings

·                Lund, Michael. “Early Warning and Preventive Diplomacy.” In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crock, Hampson, and Aall, 379-402.

·                Rubin, Blood on the Doorstep, Chapter 8.

·                George, Alexander L. and Holl, Jane E., The Warning Response Problem and Missed Opportunities in Preventive Action. New York: Carnegie Corporation, 1997. Available on web site www.ccpdc.org

·                Gurr, Ted Robert, “Early Warning Systems: From Surveillance to Assessment to Action.” In Preventive Diplomacy, edited by Cahill, 243-262.

·                Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs, “Background Paper on Macedonia.” Developed for Macedonia scenario exercise, New York, July 2001. To Be Handed Out in Class.

OCTOBER 17TH -- SESSION 7Wrap up of scenario exerciseTools of Conflict Prevention ­Operational/The Sanctions Debate Required Readings

·                Skidelsky, Lord Robert and Mortimer, Edward, “Economic Sanctions as a Means to International Health.” In Preventive Diplomacy, edited by Cahill, 144-161

·                Cortwright, David and Lopez, George. “Carrots, Sticks, and Cooperation: Economic Tools of Statecraft.” In Cases and Strategies, edited by Rubin, 113-134.

·                Human Rights Watch, Explanatory Memorandum Regarding the Comprehensive Embargo on Iraq Humanitarian Circumstances in Iraq (2000), Available at http://www.hrw.org/press/2000/01/iraq-memo.htm

·                Rubin, Michael, “Food Fight,” The New Republic (June 18, 2001): 18. To Be Handed Out in Class.

Guest Speaker: Michael Rubin, Fellow, Washington Institute of Near East Policy and Carnegie Council on Ethics and International Affairs 2000-2001 Fellow (confirmed)

OCTOBER 24TH --SESSION 8 Tools on Conflict Prevention ­ Operational/The Use of Force

Required Readings

·                Has, Richard N. “Using Force: Lessons and Choices for U.S. Foreign Policy.”  In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crocker, Hampton, and All, 197-208

·                Betts, Richard. “The Delusion of Impartial Intervention.” In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crocker, Hampton, and All, 333-342.

·                George, Alexander. “The Role of Force in Diplomacy: A Continuing Dilemma for U.S. Foreign Policy.”  In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crocker, Hampson, and All, 209-222.

·                Smith, Tony. “Morality and the Use of Force in a Unipolar World: The Wilsonian Moment?” Journal of Ethics and International Affairs (2000): 11-22.

·                Caplan, Richard. “Humanitarian Intervention: Which Way Forward.” Journal of Ethics and International Affairs (2000): 23-38.

OCTOBER 31ST -- SESSION 9Tools of Conflict Prevention—Structural/Development Aid  Required Readings

·                Lancaster, Carol. “Redesigning Foreign Aid.” Foreign Affairs (September-October 2000)

·               OECD DAC. “Guidelines on Conflict, Peace and Development Co-operation on the Threshold of the 21st Century,” (1995): 9-29.  Available on OECD/DAC website at http://webnet1.oecd.org/oecd/pages/home/displaygeneral/0,3380,EN-document-63-2-no-24-4515-0,00.html

·                Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars, Conflict Prevention Project. The Role of Foreign Assistance in Conflict Prevention, Conference Report (January 2001), Sections I-IV. Available at http://wwics.si.edu/cp/janrptoc.htm

NOVEMBER 7 ­SESSION 10

Tools of Conflict Prevention—Structural/Creating International Norms and Law

Required Readings

·                Barash, David P.,” International Law,” Approaches to Peace. New York: Oxford University Press (2000): 107-113.

·                Farer, Tom J., “Restraining the Barbarians: Can International Criminal Law Help? Human Rights Quarterly 22.1 (2000): 90-117.

·                Urquhart, Brian, “The Rusty Tools of Peace,” World Policy Journal 17 (Winter 2000/2001): 2-5.

·                Rivkin, David B. and Casey, Lee A., “The Rocky Shoals of International Law,” National Interest 62 (Winter 2000/2001): 35-45.

4.)   ACTORS (Session 11-13)

 NOVEMBER 14TH --SESSION 11Actors: States, Regional Security Organizations Required Readings            

·                Wedgewood, Ruth. “Regional and Subregional Organizations in International Conflict Management.” In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crocker, Hampson, and All, .275-286.

·                Graeger, Nina. “Security Organizations in Europe ­Lessons Learned from the European Experience,” http://www.accord.org.za/publications/papers/99-7.htm (1999)

·                Muyangwa, Monde and Vogt, Margaret A. An Assessment of the OAU Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, and Resolution 1993-2000. International Peace Academy, 2000. Available on web site of International Peace Academy http://www.ipacademy.org/Publications/Publications.htm (2000)

Guest Speaker: Margaret Vogt, Special Assistant to the Assistant Secretary-General, United Nations Department of Political Affairs (tentatively confirmed)

NOVEMBER 21ST ­SESSION 12Actors: United Nations

                  Required Readings

·                Annan, Kofi. Preventing Armed Conflict, Report of the Secretary General, 2001. http://www.un.org/Docs/sc/reports/2001/574e.pdf

·                Boutros-Ghali, Boutros.” Reflections on the Role of the UN and its Secretary General.” In Preventive Diplomacy, edited by Cahill, 189-204.

·                Cater, Charles K. and Wernester, Karin. “From Reaction to Prevention: Opportunities for the UN System in the New Millennium.” International Peace Academy (2000). www.ipacademy.org/Publications/Publications.htm

Guest Speaker: Dr. Khan, Department of Political Affairs, United Nations (confirmed)

NOVEMBER 28TH ­SESSION 13                                   FINAL PAPERS DUE

Actors: A Role for Civil Society

Required Readings

·                Anderson, Mary B. “Humanitarian NGOs in Conflict Intervention.” In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crocker, Hampson, and All, 343-354.

·                Aall, Pamela. “Nongovernmental organizations and Peacemaking.” In Managing Global Chaos, edited by Crocker, Hampson, and All, 433-443.

Guest Speaker: Andy Loomis, Project Manager, Search for Common Ground in Macedonia (confirmed)

DECEMBER 5TH—SESSION 14

Final Paper Presentations

Conclusions and Evaluation


[1] Michael Lund, A Guide to Conflict Prevention,  http://www.caii-dc.com/ghai/toolbox.htm