Note to Students: Please read Elizabeth Pond’s chapter and the articles by Mearsheimer and Van Evera before the first meeting.
DRAFT SYLLABUS (11/13/01)
COLLOQUIUM ON EUROPEAN SECURITY
International Affairs U8565 Spring 2002
Thurs. 4:10-6:00 p.m. Prof. Cynthia Roberts
Office Hrs: Thurs. 2:30-4:00; 6:00-6:30 p.m. e-mail: [email protected]
and by appointment office telephone: 212-772-5502
In the 20th century Europe endured two world wars, smaller wars in the Balkans, and a cold war that divided the continent. When the Berlin wall was finally torn down in 1989, optimism prevailed that Europe was entering a new era of peaceful cooperation based on common interests, shared values, and stable institutions. The experiences of the final years of the century – including brutal conflicts in the former Yugoslavia and Soviet Union and rough post-communist transitions – seriously dampened such expectations. Terrorism against the U.S. at the start of the 21st century led to NATO’s first invocation of Article 5 security guarantees and fresh doubts about NATO’s usefulness. The ensuing war also raised anew the question of an independent European foreign and defense policy and the unresolved problem of how best to engage Russia in Euro-Atlantic security institutions.
Will the 21st century bring more ethnic clashes and a return to competitive balancing and power struggles among the European powers or a preoccupation with insecurity, threats and wars generated by outside actors? Will Europe’s present prosperity and zone of peace expand with the spread of democracy and institutions across the continent? The future of security in Europe depends largely on whether the factors that support a stable peace are enduring and exert greater force than those elements that promote conflict and war
This course surveys historical and current case studies in the context of theoretical debates about the sources of security and insecurity and war and peace. The aim is to establish a foundation for analyzing the prospects for a secure order in Europe in the first part of the 21st century. The emphasis is on problems concerning strategic calculations, military strategy and nuclear weapons, political processes, and institutional dynamics. Separate sections in the second half of the term are devoted to selected current policy challenges, such as ethnonational conflict, transitions in East Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, NATO enlargement, and European foreign and defense initiatives.
Course Requirements
Students are required to complete the assigned readings prior to each session and participate in class discussions. Roman numerals correspond generally to weekly meetings, although some topics will carry over to a second session. After consultation with the professor, each participant is expected to deliver a 15 minute oral presentation that reviews selected reading assignments. An outline of the presentation should be prepared and distributed to the class on the day of the presentation.
Students will also write a paper of approximately 25 pages on a topic approved by the instructor. A two - three page paper proposal is due by March 14. The proposal should address the following points: (1) Puzzle: What is the empirical puzzle or policy question you wish to investigate and explain, and why is it important? (2) Hypotheses and Tentative Argument: What are the potential answers that you will explore, and which of them seems initially most persuasive? (3) Evidence: What empirical material will you examine to test the hypotheses and support your argument against alternative views? Papers are due the last day of class.
Reading assignments will be available on-line at a course web page and also on college reserve in Lehman Library. Select bibliographies for all of the topics covered in the course are listed at the end of the syllabus but are not on reserve.
The following books have been ordered at the Columbia Bookstore:
Sean M. Lynn-Jones and Steven E. Miller, eds., The Cold War and After: Prospects for Peace, expanded ed., (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1993).
Bruno Tertrais, Nuclear Policies in Europe, Adelphi Paper No. 327, IISS (London: Oxford University Press, 1999).
Some of the articles assigned in this class may also be found in the following readers:
Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. Arguments on Causes of War and Peace, 2nd ed. (New York, 2001).
Michael E. Brown, et al., eds., The Perils of Anarchy: Contemporary Realism and International Security (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1995).
Michael E. Brown, et al., eds., Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1997).
Students who lack a basic knowledge of recent European diplomatic history should consult a suitable text, such as Rene Albrecht-Carrie, A Diplomatic History of Europe since the Congress of Vienna, rev. ed. (Harper & Row, 1973), A.J.P. Taylor, The Struggle for Mastery in Europe, 1848-1914 (Oxford, 1971) or A.W. DePorte, Europe Between the Superpowers, 2nd ed. (Yale University Press, 1986). Useful general discussions on the causes of war include Geoffrey Blainey, The Causes of War, 3rd ed. (Free Press, 1988) and Michael Howard, The Causes of Wars, 2nd ed. (Harvard University Press, 1984). Any student who needs to review basic theoretical questions is advised to supplement the required readings with Robert J. Art and Robert Jervis, eds., International Politics, 5th ed. (New York: Longman, 2000).
Course and Reading Schedule
I. Framing the Issues: Alternative Futures for Europe
Elizabeth Pond, The Rebirth of Europe (Brookings, 1999). prologue and chap 1.
John J. Mearsheimer, "Back to the Future: Instability in Europe After the Cold War," International Security, vol. 15, no. 1 (Summer 1990), pp. 5-56 (reprinted in Lynn-Jones and Miller, The Cold War and After).
Stephen Van Evera, "Primed for Peace: Europe After the Cold War," International Security, vol. 15, no. 3 (Winter 1990-91), pp. 7-57 (reprinted in Lynn-Jones and Miller, The Cold War and After).
Supplementary
Jack Snyder, "Averting Anarchy in the New Europe," International Security, vol. 14, no. 4 (Spring 1990), 5-41.
Robert Jervis, "The Future of World Politics: Will It Resemble the Past?" International Security, vol. 16, no. 3
(Winter 1991/92).
Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder, "Democratization and War," Foreign Affairs, vol. 74, no. 3 (May-June 1995).
II. Concerts and Collective Security: Then and Now?
Paul W. Schroeder, "The 19th-Century International System: Changes in the Structure," World Politics, vol. 39, no. 1 (October 1986), pp. 1-26.
Richard K. Betts, "Systems for Peace or Causes of War? Collective Security, Arms Control, and the New Europe," International Security, vol. 17, no. 1 (Summer 1992), pp. 5-43.
Richard H. Ullman, "The Changed Premises of European Security," in Richard K. Betts, ed., Conflict After the Cold War. Arguments on Causes of War and Peace (New York: Macmillan, 1994), pp. 157-172.
Elizabeth Pond, "Come Together: Europe’s Unexpected New Architecture," Foreign Affairs, vol. 79, no. 2 (March/April 2000), pp. 8-12.
III. Reassessing the Origins of World War I
Paul W. Schroeder, "World War I as Galloping Gertie," Journal of Modern History, vol. 44, no. 3 (September 1972), pp. 319-345.
Stephen Van Evera, "The Cult of the Offensive and the Origins of the First World War," International Security, vol. 9, no. 1 (Summer 1984), pp. 58-107. (reprinted in in Steven E. Miller, ed., Military Strategy and the Origins of the First World War (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985).
Jack Snyder, The Ideology of the Offensive: Military Decision Making and the Disasters of 1914 (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1984), chap. 1.
Scott D. Sagan, "1914 Revisited: Allies, Offense, and Instability," International Security, vol. 11, no. 2 (Fall 1986), pp. 151-76 (in Betts, Conflict After the Cold War, pp. 330-343).
IV. World War II in Europe: Aggression and Alliances: Inefficient Balancing and Deterrence Failure
Jeffrey L. Hughes, "The Origins of World War II in Europe: British Deterrence Failure and German Expansionism," Journal of Interdisciplinary History, vol. 18, no. 4 (Spring 1988), pp. 851-891, (reprinted in Robert I. Rotberg and Theodore K. Rabb, The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), pp. 281-322).
Douglas Porch, "Arms and Alliances: French Grand Strategy and Policy in 1914 and 1940," in Paul Kennedy, ed., Grand Strategies in War and Peace (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1991), pp. 125-143.
Randall L. Schweller, Deadly Imbalances: Tripolarity and Hitler’s Strategy of World Conquest (New York: Columbia University Press, 1998). Online at CIAO. (Recommended)
Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, "Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity," International Organization, vol. 44, no. 2 (Spring 1990), pp. 137-68. OR
Thomas J. Christensen, "Perceptions and Alliances in Europe," International Organization, vol. 51, no. 1 (Winter 1997), pp. 65-97.
V. NATO Strategies and Doctrinal Debates During and After the Cold War
Bruno Tertrais, Nuclear Policies in Europe, Adelphi Paper No. 327, IISS (London: Oxford University Press, 1999).
Richard K. Betts, “Compound Deterrence vs. No-First Use: What’s Wrong is What’s Right,” Orbis, vol. 28, no. 4 (Winter 1985).
Robert Jervis, "The Political Effects of Nuclear Weapons: A Comment," International Security, 13, no. 2 (Fall 1988), pp. 80-90, reprinted in The Cold War and After, pp. 70-80.
John Mueller, “The Essential Irrelevance of Nuclear Weapons,” International Security, vol. 13, no. 2 (Fall 1988), reprinted in The Cold War and After, pp. 45-69.
VI. War in the Balkans: Ethnic Conflict and International Responses
Barry R. Posen, "The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict," Survival, vol. 35, no. 1 (Spring 1993), pp. 27-47.
Mark Danner, "Bosnia: The Turning Point," The New York Review of Books, February 5, 1998, pp. 34-41.
V.P. Gagnon, Jr., "Ethnic Nationalism and International Conflict: The Case of Serbia," International Security, vol. 19, no. 3 (Winter 1994/95), pp. 130-166 (reprinted in Brown, Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict).
Stuart Kaufman, "The Irresistible Force and the Imperceptible Object: The Yugoslav Breakup and Western Policy," Security Studies, vol. 4, no. 2 (Winter 1994-95), pp. 281-329.
Adam Roberts, "NATO’s ‘Humanitarian War’ over Kosovo," Survival, vol. 41, no. 3 (Autumn 1999), pp. 102-23.
Jack Snyder, From Voting to Violence. Democratization and Nationalist Conflict (New York: Norton, 2000), pp. to be assigned.
Milada Anna Vachudová, "Peaceful Transformations in East Central Europe," in Michael E. Brown, The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict (MIT Press, 1996), chap. 2.
Anatol Lieven, “The Weakness of Russian Nationalism,” Survival, vol. 41, no. 2 (Summer 1999), pp. 53-70.
Dave Russell and Mark Mitchell, “Fortress Europe, National Identity and Citizenship,” in Fergus Carr, ed., Europe: The Cold Divide (Palgrave, 1998), chap. 4.
VIII. Transitions in East Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union: Political,
Economic and Security Challenges
Juan J. Linz and Alfred Stepan, "Toward Consolidated Democracies," Journal of Democracy, vol. 7, no. 2 (April 1996), pp. 14-33.
Joel S. Hellman, "Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Postcommunist Transitions," World Politics, vol. 50, no. 2 (1998), pp. 203-234.
Cynthia Roberts and Thomas Sherlock, "Bringing the Russian State Back In: Explanations for the Derailed Transition to Market Democracy," Comparative Politics, vol. 31, no. 4 (July 1999), pp. 477-498.
Bruce G. Blair, “Loose Cannon,” The National Interest, No. 52 (Summer 1998), pp. 87-92.
Milada Anna Vachudová, “The Leverage of International Institutions on Democratizing States: Eastern Europe and the European Union,” unpublished paper, 2000.
IX. Russian Interests and Ambitions: Sources and Implications for Regional Security
Zbigniew Brzezinski, "The Premature Partnership," Foreign Affairs, vol. 73, no. 2 (March/April 1994), pp. 67-82.
Vladimir G. Baranovsky and Alexei G. Arbatov, “The Changing Security Perspective in Europe,” in Arbatov, Karl Kaiser, and Robert Legvold, eds., Russia and the West: The 21st Century Security Environment (M.E. Sharpe, 1999), pp. 44-73.
Allen C. Lynch, "The Realism of Russia's Foreign Policy," Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 53, no. 1 (January 2001), pp. 7-31.
Timothy Colton and Michael McFaul, “Russia’s Role,” Foreign Affairs vol. 80, no. 6 (November/December 2001), pp. 46-58.
X. The Role of Euro-Atlantic Security Institutions in the Post-Cold War Era: What Purposes should NATO serve? How Long will the Alliance Last? Should NATO Go Further East? Whither Russia in Europe’s Security Institutions?
Robert B. McCalla, "NATO's Persistence After the Cold War," International Organization, vol. 50, no. 3 (Summer 1996), pp. 445-75.
Robert J. Art, "Why Western Europe Needs the United States and NATO," Political Science Quarterly , vol. 111, no. 1 (Spring 1996).
Karl-Heinz Kamp, “NATO Entrapped: Debating the Next Enlargement Round,” Survival, 40-3 (Autumn 1998), pp. 170-86. OR Article To Be Assigned.
Robert E. Hunter, “Solving Russia: Final Piece in NATO’s Puzzle,” The Washington Quarterly, vol. 23, no. 1 (2000), pp. 115-134.
XI. Europe’s Foreign and Security Policy
Philip H. Gordon, “Europe’s Uncommon Foreign Policy,” International Security, 22:3 (Winter 1997/98), pp. 74-100.
Josef Joffe, “Where Germany Has Never Been Before,” The National Interest, no. 56 (Summer 1999), pp. 45-53.
Richard Medley, “Europe’s Next Big Idea,” Foreign Affairs, vol. 78, no. 5 (September/October 1999), pp. 18-22.
Peter Schmidt, “ESDI: “Separable but not separate”? NATO Review (Spring/Summer 2000), pp. 12-15.
Additional article to be assigned.
XII. Conclusions