Climatic Change, submitted 7/10.
Michela Biasutti, Adam Sobel*, Suzana Camargo, Timothy Creyts
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
of Columbia University, Palisades, NY
Abstract
As the global climate warms due to increasing greenhouse gases, the regional climate of the Gulf of
Mexico and Caribbean region will also change. This study presents the latest estimates of the expected changes
in temperature, precipitation, tropical cyclone activity, and sea level.
Changes in temperature and precipitation are derived from climate model simulations produced for the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), by comparing projections for
the mid- and late-21st century to the late 20th century and assuming a ”middle-of-the-road” scenario for future
greenhouse gas emissions. Regional simulations from the North America Regional Climate Change Program
(NARCCAP) are used to corroborate the IPCC AR4 rainfall projections over the US portion of the domain.
Changes in tropical cyclones and sea level are more uncertain, and our understanding of these variables has
changed more since IPCC AR4 than in the case of temperature and precipitation. For these quantities, the current
state of knowledge is described based on the recent peer-reviewed literature.