Nat. Hazards, submitted December 2016.

Northern hemisphere tropical cyclones during the quasi-El Niño of late 2014.

Adam H. Sobel
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York, NY

Suzana J. Camargo
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY.

Anthony G. Barnston
International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY

Abstract

During the second half of 2014, the tropical Pacific was in a state marginally consistent with El Niño. While oceanic indicators were indicative of a weak El Niño event, a number of atmospheric indicators were not, and a number of forecast centers did not declare an El Niño. Nonetheless, the most active tropical cyclone basins of the northern hemisphere --- those of the North Atlantic and Pacific --- showed tropical cyclone statistics that in some respects were consistent with El Niño. In particular, the numbers of relatively intense storms in the four basins considered | major hurricanes in the Eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic, super typhoons in the Western North Pacific, and hurricanes in the Central North Pacific | formed a pattern strongly consistent with El Niño.