Several interlinked events happened in 1973 that had a
great influence on subsequent world political and economic order:
US withdrawal from Vietnam
- Clear sign of declining US hegemony.
- The US had pumped an enormous amount of money into Asia,
helping fuel economic growth and exacerbate currency problems (see below).
- As US policy priority, diverted attention from other
issues of global leadership.
Oil Prices (founded 1960)
- OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)
tripled price of oil at end of 1973. It had been $3 dollars a barrel since
1957, now raised to $10.
- Ended (along with Nixon to China in 1972) possibilities
of Third World unity.
- Contributed to recession.
- Enormous dollar flows to oil producing countries passed
through in Western banks, and OPEC countries then invested their money
in these banks. This helped destabilize dollar and create enormous liquidity.
Recession (1973-5, 1979)
- Crisis of overproduction spurred by rise in oil prices.
It was centered in US, and was unique in that it was accompanied by inflation
as a result of high liquidity.
- Commodity prices fell. Third World countries outside
Asia have not recovered. (Some even explain collapse of Soviet bloc as
result of collapsed Third World markets).
- Investors searched for profitable investments, encouraging
deregulation to facilitate this search. Seen as origins of "flexible"
capitalism.
End of Bretton-Woods
- 1958-1971 most currencies pegged to dollar, which was
backed by gold with prices remaining steady at $35 an ounce.
- But with growing trade, most countries could not entirely
control capital flows or the value of their currencies on informal markets
(especially with rise of transfers within multinational corporations).
- Increasing amounts of dollars flowed overseas as countries
preferred to hold foreign exchange reserves in dollars, but also as part
of US aid and military budgets. About $700 million dollars per year (net)
flowed out of US in the 1960s. Value of dollar decreased in informal markets--an
especially large problem in face of Vietnam War and first US trade deficit
ever in 1971. US also feared it did not hold enough gold to back the dollar.
- By August, 1971 the price of gold rose to $44 an ounce.
The US unilaterally withdrew gold backing for dollars held abroad. In the
words of US Secretary of the Treasury John Connally, "Foreigners are
out to screw us. Our job is to screw them first."
- By avoiding deflationary measures, the US avoided the
kind of austerity solution that it encouraged other countries to undertake.
This was also a clear sign that the US was unable to manage the global
economy.
- Dollar and other major currencies exchanged on open market
by end of 1970s.
Beginning of Deregulation
- Demise of Bretton-Woods was the first step in deregulation
of international and domestic economic policies.
- Free-marketers argued that crises of 1970s were the result
of neo-Keynesian policies of excessive government intervention.
- By 1980 World Bank and IMF were attaching liberalization,
deregulation and austerity policies to their loans.
- Rise of "flexible" capitalism. Business and
capital could move increasingly unhindered by law and regulation.
- Global liquidity (amount of money in circulation) continues
to rise. Much of that money held in US treasury bonds, sustaining huge
deficits in US budget and current accounts budget. Currency speculators
and international institutions increasingly dominate economies of poor
countries.
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