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Table 4.5.3. Counted votes and undervotes in Florida counties in the 2000 presidential election
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Punch ballot counties Bush Gore Other Net for Gore Undervote Exp net Exp tot net Var
Baker 5611 2392 152 -3219 94 -9.6 -3228.6 23.0
Broward 177939 387760 9538 209821 0 0.0 209821.0 0.0
Collier 60467 29939 1791 -30528 2082 -179.2 -30707.2 515.4
Duval 152460 108039 4674 -44421 4967 -216.3 -44637.3 1259.2
Hardee 3765 2342 129 -1423 85 -5.0 -1428.0 21.3
Highlands 20207 14169 776 -6038 489 -21.8 -6059.8 123.4
Hillsborough 180794 169576 9978 -11218 5531 -44.8 -11262.8 1397.9
Indian River 28639 19769 1219 -8870 1058 -49.2 -8919.2 266.0
Lee 106151 73571 4676 -32580 2017 -92.7 -32672.7 506.9
Marion 55146 44674 3150 -10472 2445 -64.7 -10536.7 614.5
Miami-Dade 289708 329169 7108 39461 8845 145.0 39606.0 2271.2
Nassau 16408 6955 424 -9453 195 -20.1 -9473.1 47.7
Osceola 26237 28187 1265 1950 642 5.8 1955.8 163.1
Palm Beach 153300 270264 10503 116964 0 0.0 116964.0 0.0
Pasco 68607 69576 4585 969 1776 3.1 972.1 446.9
Pinellas 184849 200657 13017 15808 4226 43.6 15851.6 1062.4
Sarasota 83117 72869 4989 -10248 1809 -29.9 -10277.9 455.3
Sumter 12127 9637 497 -2490 593 -17.2 -2507.2 150.2
TOTAL PUNCH 1625532 1839545 78471 214013 36854 -553.1 213459.9 9324.5
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Optical scan counties Bush Gore Other Net for Gore Undervote Exp net Exp tot net Var
Alachua 34135 47380 4240 13245 225 1.7 13246.7 10.7
Bay 38682 18873 1318 -19809 529 -8.9 -19817.9 25.7
Bradford 5416 3075 184 -2341 40 -0.5 -2341.5 2.0
Brevard 115253 97341 5892 -17912 277 -1.1 -17913.1 13.5
Calhoun 2873 2156 146 -717 78 -0.5 -717.5 3.8
Charlotte 35428 29646 1825 -5782 168 -0.7 -5782.7 8.2
Citrus 29801 25531 1912 -4270 163 -0.6 -4270.6 7.9
Clay 41903 14668 985 -27235 100 -2.4 -27237.4 4.9
Columbia 10968 7049 497 -3919 617 -6.5 -3925.5 30.0
Flagler 12618 13897 601 1279 55 0.1 1279.1 2.7
Franklin 2454 2047 144 -407 70 -0.3 -407.3 3.4
Gadsden 4770 9736 225 4966 122 2.1 4968.1 6.0
Gulf 3553 2398 197 -1155 48 -0.5 -1155.5 2.3
Hamilton 2147 1723 96 -424 0 0.0 -424.0 0.0
Hendry 4747 3240 152 -1507 39 -0.4 -1507.4 1.9
Hernando 30658 32648 1929 1990 101 0.2 1990.2 4.9
Jackson 9139 6870 294 -2269 94 -0.7 -2269.7 4.6
Lafayette 1670 789 46 -881 0 0.0 -881.0 0.0
Lake 50010 36571 2030 -13439 245 -1.9 -13440.9 12.0
Levy 6863 5398 468 -1465 52 -0.3 -1465.3 2.5
Liberty 1317 1017 76 -300 29 -0.2 -300.2 1.4
Manatee 58023 49226 3092 -8797 111 -0.4 -8797.4 5.4
Monroe 16063 16487 1345 424 83 0.1 424.1 4.0
Okaloosa 52186 16989 1639 -35197 85 -2.1 -35199.1 4.1
Okeechobee 5057 4589 208 -468 84 -0.2 -468.2 4.1
Orange 134531 140236 5388 5705 966 1.0 5706.0 47.4
Polk 90310 75207 3112 -15103 228 -1.0 -15104.0 11.2
Putnam 13457 12107 673 -1350 83 -0.2 -1350.2 4.0
Seminole 75790 59227 2783 -16563 219 -1.3 -16564.3 10.7
St.Johns 39564 19509 1698 -20055 426 -7.0 -20062.0 20.6
St.Lucie 34705 41560 1725 6855 537 2.4 6857.4 26.2
Suwannee 8009 4076 376 -3933 42 -0.7 -3933.7 2.0
Taylor 4058 2649 103 -1409 82 -0.8 -1409.8 4.0
Volusia 82368 97313 3992 14945 0 0.0 14945.0 0.0
Walton 12186 5643 494 -6543 133 -2.4 -6545.4 6.4
Washington 4995 2798 233 -2197 292 -4.0 -2201.0 14.1
TOTAL OPTICAL 1075707 909669 50118 -166038 6423 -38.2 -166076.2 312.5
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(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)
Counties not separating Bush Gore Other Net for Gore Undervote Exp net Exp tot net Var
Desoto P 4256 3321 235 -935 80 -2.5 -937.5 20.1
Dixie P 2697 1827 143 -870 14 -0.7 -870.7 3.5
Escambia O 73171 40990 2688 -32181 665 -9.2 -32190.2 32.4
Gilchrist P 3300 1910 185 -1390 47 -3.1 -1393.1 11.6
Glades P 1841 1442 82 -399 62 -1.9 -400.9 15.7
Holmes O 5012 2177 207 -2835 97 -1.9 -2836.9 4.7
Jefferson P 2478 3041 124 563 29 0.8 563.8 7.4
Leon O 39073 61444 2630 22371 175 1.9 22372.9 8.5
Madison P 3038 3015 110 -23 27 0.0 -23.0 6.9
Martin P 33972 26621 1420 -7351 133 -4.1 -7355.1 33.7
Santa Rosa O 36339 12818 1245 -23521 153 -3.6 -23524.6 7.4
Union O 2332 1407 87 -925 25 -0.3 -925.3 1.2
Wakulla P 4512 3838 237 -674 49 -1.0 -675.0 12.4
TOTAL OTHER 212021 163851 9393 -48170 1556 -25.6 -48195.6 165.3
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TOTAL PUNCH 1681626 1884560 81007 202934 37295 -565.8 202368.2 9435.6
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TOTAL OPTICAL 1231634 1028505 56975 -203129 7538 -51.2 -203180.2 366.6
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GRAND TOTAL 2913260 2913065 137982 -195 44833 -616.9 -811.9 9802.2
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Expected net for Gore among undervote = -616.9
Expected plurality for Gore after recount = -811.9
Standard error for plurality = 99.01
Z-score = expected plurality/s.e. = -8.20
(6) Expected net for Gore among ascertained undervotes assuming 26% recovery
rate among punch ballot counties, 5% recovery rate in other counties.
(6) = (4)/{(1)+(2)+(3)} x (5) x recovery rate
(7) Expected net for Gore among county totals.
(7) = (4) + (6)
(8) Variance of expected net for Gore for county totals
= MR{P[B]+P[G]-R(P[G]-P[B])^2}
where M=undervote = (5)
R=recovery rate
P[B]=observed proportion for Bush = (1)/{(1)+(2)+(3)}
P[G]=observed proportion for Gore = (2)/{(1)+(2)+(3)}