set more off
cap log close
log using Markov, replace

use MarkovInput, clear

******************************
* 1. Define dependent variable
******************************

gen dem = polxnew > 7 if polxnew < .
gen aut = polxnew < 1 if polxnew < .
gen part  = dem==0 & aut==0 if polxnew < .
label variable dem "Democracy"
label variable aut "Autocracy"
label variable part "Partial Democracy"

gen tripolx=0 if aut & polxnew<.
replace tripolx=1 if part & polxnew<.
replace tripolx=2 if dem & polxnew<.
lab def tripolx 0 "Autocracy" 1 "Partial Dem." 2 "Democracy"
lab val tripolx tripolx
gen Ltripolx = L.tripolx
lab val Ltripolx tripolx

gen y0 = tripolx<1
gen y1 = tripolx<2
gen Ly0 = L.y0
gen Ly1 = L.y1


*******************************
* 2. Generate interactive terms
*******************************

gen Lgdpy0 = Lgdp *Ly0
gen Lgdpy1 = Lgdp *Ly1
gen Lgrowthy0 = Lgrowth*Ly0
gen Lgrowthy1 = Lgrowth*Ly1
gen Lurbany0 = Lurban*Ly0
gen Lurbany1 = Lurban*Ly1
gen Ldensy0 = Ldensity*Ly0
gen Ldensy1 = Ldensity*Ly1
gen Ltradey0 = Ltrade*Ly0
gen Ltradey1 = Ltrade*Ly1
gen Lsumdy0 = Lsumdown*Ly0
gen Lsumdy1 = Lsumdown*Ly1
gen Lcursey0 = Lcurse*Ly0
gen Lcursey1 = Lcurse*Ly1


******************************
* 3. Markov Results
******************************

******************************
* 3a. GDP only
******************************
oprobit tripolx Ly0 Ly1 Lgdp Lgdpy1

dis _b[Lgdp] + _b[Lgdpy1]
test Lgdp+Lgdpy1=0

******************************
* 3b. GDP+modernization
******************************

oprobit tripolx Ly0 Ly1 Lgdp Lgdpy0 Lgdpy1  Lgrowth Lgrowthy0 Lurban Lurbany1 Ldensity Ldensy0

dis _b[Lgdp] + _b[Lgdpy1]
test Lgdp+Lgdpy1=0
dis _b[Lgdp] + _b[Lgdpy1] + _b[Lgdpy0]
test Lgdp+Lgdpy1+Lgdpy0=0
dis _b[Lgrowth ] + _b[Lgrowthy0 ]
test Lgrowth +Lgrowthy0 =0
dis _b[Lurban ] + _b[Lurbany1]
test Lurban + Lurbany1=0
dis _b[Ldensity ] + _b[Ldensy0 ]
test Ldensity + Ldensy0 =0

*********************************
* 3c. GDP+modernization+political
*********************************

oprobit tripolx Ly0 Ly1 Lgdp Lgdpy1 Lgrowth Lgrowthy0 Lurban Lurbany1 Ltrade Ltradey1  Lsumdown Lsumdy0 Lsumdy1 Lcurse

dis _b[Lgdp] + _b[Lgdpy1]
test Lgdp+Lgdpy1=0
dis _b[Lgrowth ] + _b[Lgrowthy0 ]
test Lgrowth +Lgrowthy0 =0
dis _b[Lurban ] + _b[Lurbany1]
test Lurban + Lurbany1=0
dis _b[Ltrade ] + _b[Ltradey1]
test Ltrade + Ltradey1=0
dis _b[Lsumdown ] + _b[Lsumdy1]
test Lsumdown + Lsumdy1=0
dis _b[Lsumdown ] + _b[Lsumdy1] +_b[Lsumdy0]
test Lsumdown + Lsumdy1+Lsumdy0=0


save MarkovData, replace

log close
set more on