Syllabus
    Topics / Written Assignments Due

Readings

1 Mon. Aug. 29 Introduction to B6014
Probabilistic Thinking

Getting Started in Microsoft Excel
Tables and Charts

Microsoft Excel: A Self-Assessment
Solution to Excel Self-Assessment
Introduction to Pivot Tables 
Levine book:
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
2 Tues. Aug. 30 Descriptive Statistics, PivotTable Documenting Excel Calculations ...
To Financial Advisors ...
Taleb Outsells Greenspan ...
Levine book:
Chapter 3

After this class, you can do any/all of Practice Problems I

3 Wed. Aug. 31 Basics of Probability Discovering the Odds 
Why Game Shows Have Economists ...
Levine book:
Chapter 4.1

After this class, you can do Practice Problems II: 1-5, 18-23, 32-34, 42-43

    No Review Session this week  
4 Thu. Sep. 1 Conditional Probability
Expected Value and Variance 
of a Probability Distribution
Geico's Two Rates: White-collar ...  
Levine book:
Chapter 4.2 through 4.4, 5.1

After this class, you can do Practice Problems II: 6-17, 24-25, 35-41

5 Fri. Sep. 2 Binomial Distribution
Problem Set 0 Due (Excel-Word Basics)
Levine book:
Chapter 5.3

After this class, you can do Practice Problems II: 26-31, 44-51

6 Tue. Sep. 6 Quiz: (first half of class time)
Introduction to the Normal Distribution
Assignment 1 Due (Rick Beck I)
Levine book:
Chapter 6.1 - 6.4

After this class, you can do Practice Problems III: 1-2, 14, 22-27

  Wed. Sep. 7 Review Session
5:45 PM, 330 Uris
Practice Problems II: 20, 33, 35
7 Thu. Sep. 8 More Normal
Basics of Portfolio Analysis
After this class, you can do Practice Problems III: 3-9, 13
8 Fri. Sep. 9 Correlation and Covariance
More Portfolios
Site Calculates Risk Factors ...
The Prosecutor's Fallacy
Linear functions of random variables 
Gotham Bank Investment Services 
Recipe for Disaster
Levine book:
Chapter 3.5, 5.2

After this class, you can do Practice Problems III: 17-21

9 Tue. Sep. 13 Central Limit Theorem
Normal Approximation to the Binomial
Assignment 2 Due (Queen of Diamonds)
After this class, you can do Practice Problems III: 10-12, 15-16
  Wed. Sep. 14 Review Session
5:45 PM, 330 Uris
Practice Problems III: 14, 18, 20
10 Thu. Sep. 15 In-class Midterm Review  
  TBA Extra Review Session
TBA
 
11 Fri. Sep. 16 Midterm Exam  
12 Tue. Sep. 20 Sampling Theory
Confidence Intervals for Single Populations
The Polling: Report Says ...
How Insiders Were Fooled
Deja Vu
Hurdles Emerge ...
Levine book:
Chapter 7, 8

After this class, you can do Practice Problems IV 1-2, 23-27

    (no regular review session this week)  
13 Thu. Sep. 22 More Confidence Intervals
Small Samples, Two Populations
Student's t Distribution
Sample Size Selection

After this class, you can do all Practice Problems from Part IV 

14 Fri. Sep. 23 Basic Hypothesis Testing The Truth Wears Off
Cheaters Find an Adversary ...
You Might Already Know This ...
Fingerprint Matches Come Under More Fire ...
Federal Agency Warns that Alcohol Test ...

Levine book: Chapter 9

After this class, you can do Practice Problems V 1-2, 4-6, 11-24, 26-41

15 Tue. Sep. 27 Hypothesis Testing for Multiple Populations
Extension: Goodness-of-fit Tests
Levine book: Ch. 10
Note: There are numerous types of hypothesis tests
in the book, which may be of interest for the advanced
student. Our final exam will not have any hypothesis
tests beyond the five types we have covered in class.

After this class, you can do all Practice Problems from Part V 
(New ones: 3, 7-10, 25, 42-50)

  Wed. Sep. 28 Review Session
5:45 PM, 330 Uris
Practice Problems IV: 3, 8, 12, 15, 17, 18
Practice Problems V: 1, 4, 5, 7, 8
16 Thu. Sep. 29 Excel Day: Bring Laptop  
17 Fri. Sep. 30 Simple Regression  Freakonomics
Levine book: Chapter 13
18 Tue. Oct. 4 Simple Regression
Assignment 3 Due (Napster and Beck II)
After this class, you can do all Practice Problems from Part VI.
  Wed. Oct. 5 Review Session 4
5:45 PM, 330 Uris
Practice Problems V: 10, 12
Practice Problems VI: 6, 8, 14
19 Thu. Oct. 6 Multiple Regression  Sex, Love, and Voting
The Formula
How Good Are Zillow's Estimates?
Levine book: Chapter 14
20 Fri. Oct. 7 Multiple Regression: Model Building and Validation
In-class Excel Exercise: Jenny Tsai
Levine book: Chapter 15

After this class, you can do all Practice Problems from Part VII.
It's a good time to start looking at the practice Final Exams.

21 Tue. Oct. 11 Multiple Regression
Assignment 4 Due (Simple Regression)

 

  Wed. Oct. 12 Review Session
5:45 PM, 330 Uris
Practice Problems VII: 9, 12, 14
  TBA "Hail Mary" Review Session
TBA
 
22 Thu. Oct. 13 Assignment 5 Due (Beck III)
Problems with Regression Models: 
Multicollinearity, Heteroscedasticity
Non-normality of Errors 
 
  Tue. Oct. 18 Final Exam
TBA
 

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