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Research Papers “Firm Reorganization, Chinese Imports, and US Manufacturing Employment” Link
Discussion Papers, U.S. Census Bureau, Center for Economic Studies, CES 17-58, October 2017 Selected Press Coverage: Marginal Revolution (March 1, 2017), The Washington Post (March 31, 2017), The Wall Street Journal (April 2, 2017), Index.hu (January 9, 2018), Index.hu (February 28, 2018) Abstract What is
the impact of Chinese imports on employment of US manufacturing firms?
Previous papers have found a negative effect of Chinese imports on
employment in US manufacturing establishments, industries, and regions.
However, I show theoretically and empirically that the impact of offshoring
on firms - which can be thought of as collections of establishments -
differ from the impact on individual establishments, because offshoring
reduces costs at the firm level. These cost reductions can result in firms
expanding their total manufacturing employment in industries in which the
US had a comparative advantage relative to China, even as specific
establishments within the firm shrink. Using novel data on firms from the
US Census Bureau, I show that the data support this view: US firms expanded
manufacturing employment as reorganization toward less exposed industries
in response to increased Chinese imports in US output and input markets
allowed them to reduce the cost of production. More exposed firms expanded
employment by 2 percent more per year as they hired more (i) production
workers in manufacturing, whom they paid higher wages, and (ii) in services
complementary to high-skilled and high-tech manufacturing, such as R&D,
design, engineering, and headquarters services. In other words, although
Chinese imports may have reduced employment within some establishments,
these losses were more than offset by gains in employment within the same
firms. Contrary to conventional wisdom, firms exposed to greater Chinese
imports created more manufacturing and nonmanufacturing jobs than
non-exposed firms.
“International Financial Adjustment in a Canonical Open Economy Growth Model” Link with Richard H. Clarida, NBER Working Paper No. 22758, October 2016, Abstract Gourinchas and
Rey (2007) have shown that international financial adjustment (IFA) in the path of expected future
returns on a country’s international investment portfolio can complement or
even substitute for the traditional adjustment channel via a narrowing of
country’s current account imbalance. In their paper, GR derive this result
using a log linearization of a net foreign asset accumulation identity
without reference to any specific theoretical model of IFA in expected
foreign asset returns or the real exchange rate. In this paper we calibrate
the importance of IFA in a standard open economy growth model
(Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe, 2003) with a well-defined steady level of foreign
liabilities. In this model there is a country specific credit spread which
varies as a function of the ratio of foreign liabilities to GDP. We find
that allowing for an IFA channel results in a very rapid converge of the
current account to its steady state (relative to the no IFA case) so that
most of the time that the country is adjusting, all the adjustment is via
the IFA channel of forecastable changes in the costs of servicing debt and
in the appreciation real exchange rate. By contrast, in the no IFA case,
current account adjustment by construction does all the work and current
account adjustment is much slower. "Does
Financial Liberalization Promote Imports?" September
2016, submitted, Link (Winner of Harriss Prize 2013, Olga Radzyner
Award 2014) Abstract This paper proposes a new channel through which
financial shocks affect firms - imported intermediate inputs - and
investigates its empirical implications for firms' production decision in a
panel of Hungarian firms and banks. In a model of liquidity-constrained
heterogeneous firms, only the most productive firms import the higher
productivity foreign intermediates because these firms are the only ones
that can afford the necessary financing. In this model, a financial
liberalization results in lower interest rates on bank loans that reduces
the relative cost of imported intermediates, induces firms to become
importers and leads continuing importers to import more. Thus capital
market liberalization acts like trade liberalization. Using the last stage
of Hungarian financial account liberalization in 2001 as a natural
experiment, I find that, as predicted by the theory, firms whose banks were
given access to new international sources of credit increased their
intermediate import shares of production. Moreover, this increase was
financed by the short-term liquidity arising from the liberalization. These
findings support the hypothesis that positive credit supply shocks reduce
the relative cost of imported intermediates, and induce firms to import and
increase the share of imports in their intermediate input use. Work in
Progress “Measuring
Retailers’ Productivity”
with Stephen J. Redding and David E. Weinstein “The
Role of Market Structure and the Firm’s Boundary in the Propagation of
Industry Specific Shocks: The Case of the China Shock in the US” “The Geography of US
Firms’ Organization” “Financial
Shocks, Capital Accumulation and Skill Biased Technical Change across
Space” with Dávid
Krisztián Nagy
Ildikó
Magyari
ildiko.magyari@columbia.edu
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