Publications List

Forecast Work

This page lists papers and archived postings developed for a project entitled Influenza Outbreak Prediction: Applying Data Assimilation Methodologies to Make Skillful Forecasts of an Inherently Chaotic, Nonlinear System, which is funded through the NIH (NIGMS)/NSF (DMS) joint initiative to support research at the interface of the biological and mathematical sciences. The title is a bit of a mouthful (as is the funding program name); basically, we are using data assimilation methods, as commonly employed in numerical weather prediction, in conjunction with real-time observations of influenza incidence to train and optimize model simulations of influenza transmission dynamics on the fly and then use those optimized models to generate real-time forecasts of influenza outcomes. Additional funding comes from the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority of the Department of Health and Human Services, as well as the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS) program of the the NIH.

In Review
  • Yang, W., A. Karspeck, and J. Shaman: Comparison of filtering methods for the modeling and retrospective forecasting of influenza epidemics.

    2013
  • Shaman, J, A. Karspeck, W. Yang, J. Tamerius, and M. Lipsitch, 2013: Real-Time Influenza Forecasts during the 2012-2013 Season. Nature Communications, 4: Article Number 2837, doi:10.1038/ncomms3837.
  • Shaman, J, A. Karspeck, and M. Lipsitch, 2013: Week 1 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season ArXiv:1301.3110 [q-bio.PE].
  • Shaman, J, A. Karspeck, and M. Lipsitch, 2013: Week 52 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season ArXiv:1301.1111 [q-bio.PE].

    2012
  • Shaman, J, A. Karspeck, and M. Lipsitch, 2012: Week 51 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season ArXiv:1212.6678 [q-bio.PE].
  • Shaman, J, A. Karspeck, and M. Lipsitch, 2012: Week 50 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season ArXiv:1212.5750 [q-bio.PE].
  • Shaman, J, A. Karspeck, and M. Lipsitch, 2012: Week 49 Influenza Forecast for the 2012-2013 U.S. Season ArXiv:1212.4678 [q-bio.PE].
  • Shaman, J. and A. Karspeck, 2012: Forecasting Seasonal Outbreaks of Influenza. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(50): 20425-20430, doi:10.1073/pnas.1208772109.