SOUTH ASIAN CLIMATE NEWS

Vol. 4 No.2 June 2002
  1. Appeal Against Handover of Dept. of Met. Lands
  2. El Nino established and 90% Chance of El Nino Persisting: IRI
  3. Development of Meteorology and Oceanography in Japan
  4. Island News Item on Met. Dept Handover Plans
  5. Daily Mirror Story on Met Dept Handover
  6. Lanka Academic Story on Met Dept
  7. Ceylon Daily News carries Appeal
  8. Prof. Manfred Domroes Writes:
  9. Climate Change, National Security and British Embassy
  10. APN call for Proposals
  11. START Young Scientist Awards
  12. Proposal for Weather and Climate Conference in Sri Lanka
  13. Forthcoming Meetings and Deadlines
  14. Subscriptions
  15. Subscription Form
Many thanks to the several contributors to this issues. New contributions are welcome. Please send in yours by September, 2002 to make it to the next issue of this newsletter. Lareef Zubair, Editor.

Update on Colombo Observatory Handover

An agreement to handover a two-acre parcel of the Department of Meteorology in Colombo-7 to the British High Commission for office buildings (as reported in the last issue) has shocked many. This agreement had been reached by Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the British High Comission as a "government to government deal" according to the British High Commission. The land transfer is still to be finalized. The Treasury Secretary has stated that he went ahead with arrangements, at the request of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, since no one protested. The Director of Meteorology has stated that he did not protest, as it was a "government directive". However, Thirty eminent scientists and engineers have just released an appeal against the move. Various other professional societies, government consultative bodies and related groups are also considering action on the matter. See Below.

An Appeal to Reconsider the Decision to Hand Over Land of the Department of Meteorology.

We, as researchers and users of meteorological data, are keenly aware of the importance of maintaining its quality. Hence, we are alarmed to learn that a good part of the land of the Department of Meteorology Observatory in Colombo is to be handed over to house British High Commission offices. Construction and urbanization close to the observatory will lead to changes in wind and temperature measurements and possibly other measurements. It is not possible to reliably distinguish the impact of urbanization from that of climate change. Indeed, it is doubtful whether international standards of data collection can be maintained.

Handing over the land, will also preclude the expansion of the Department so that it can cater to the emerging demands for weather and climate services. We also know that it will be damaging to move this station as the impact of relocation on the observations cannot be identified easily. It is important to maintain continuity of data records.

Interpretations from meteorological data are needed for many purposes such as estimating the scope of climate change, understanding the implications of air pollution, assessing likelihood of floods and droughts, designing water resources systems, providing aviation services, planning for wind and hydro-electricity generation, designing habitable buildings, and understanding the impact of climate on the health of the public. Hence maintaining meteorological data quality is of wide-ranging and far-reaching importance.

In addition, due to various environmental problems, such as global warming, it has become more important than ever to understand our climate. In this respect, Sri Lanka is blessed in having good historical meteorological data with our best record available in Colombo. This record is one of the finest in the tropics next to Madras and interpretations from it are of international importance. Hence, damaging the integrity of the data would be considered with alarm by the global environmental community.

Hence, we earnestly appeal that the lands of the Department of Meteorology be not handed over to the British High Commission. We also appeal that support for environmental data gathering in general is enhanced.

Current Signatories

In Sri Lanka

Name Affiliation

Outside Sri Lanka

90% Chance of El Nino Persisting : IRI, 17 July 2002.

The International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) issues monthly summaries about the current state of ENSO, and the consensus of models that forecast ENSO developments for the coming 6 or more months.

Summary

The IRI's assessment is that there is an approximately 90% probability of El Niño conditions during the remainder of 2002 and into early 2003-in other words, it is highly likely that current conditions represent the early phase of an El Niño that will continue into early 2003. This assessment is based on the collective forecasts of many computer models of various types, as well as on the experience of the several oceanographers and atmospheric scientists familiar with the El Niño phenomenon. Compared with the statement from one month ago, this probability has increased by 15%, since substantial warm SST anomalies have continued since late May and are considered likely to continue for the next 6-9 months. If these SST conditions do continue as expected, the most likely strength of the El Niño will be approximately one-third to one-half of the strength of the 1997-98 El Niño, and climate impacts will therefore be comparably weaker than those associated with the 1997-98 El Niño. During the period from mid-June to mid-July, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central and eastern tropical Pacific remained near one degree C above average, which is high enough to represent an El Niño episode if continued over a sufficient number of months. The atmosphere has also maintained features suggestive of El Niño, such as westerly wind anomalies in the western and central Pacific and a somewhat below normal Southern Oscillation Index. However, a persistent pattern of eastward-shifted convection characteristic of El Niño episodes has not yet commenced. This missing feature has often been lacking in the early stages of past El Niño episodes.

Note 1 - The SST averaged over the April through June period has already satisfied the NOAA/National Weather Service's requirement for this to be called an El Niño, even if it does not continue into the remainder of this calendar year. In this assessment, we are assuming a definition requiring a longer-lasting episode (e.g., 6 or more months).

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Development Meteorology and Oceanography : The Japanese Experience

Recollection of conversation with Prof. Taroh Matsuno, Director-General, Frontier Research System for Global Change Research, June 7. 2002, Lareef Zubair.

Modern Meteorology in Japan started with the sinking a ship in the Edo period during storm conditions around 1880's. Thereafter, there was considerable interest in both meteorology and oceanography. After the Meiji reformation (140 years ago), the scientists who had Edo patronage were exiled to Hokkaido. Here they continued their scientific interests in Meteorology and Oceanography. Eventually, they were drawn into the scientific establishment of Japan. They were instrumental in the formation of the Japan Meteorological Society (JMS) and Japan Oceanographic Society (JOS) in 1882. This society has continued to function, publishing newsletters and journals with only small breaks until the present.


It was during this period that many meteorological stations were established all over Japan. As a result, Japan had one of the densest meteorological observations stations network by the turn of the nineteenth century. The Japan Meteorological Agency and the Japan Marine Sciences Organization were established then. They always had a research department. Initially the Japanese Meteorological Society was dominated by the Japan Meteorological Agency. But over time the JMS has developed a standing of its own. These agencies were under the Ministry of Science and Technology

.


However, the Universities were under another Ministry, the Ministry of Education and Culture. Perhaps because of this the interaction between the agencies and Universities were limited. Many of the Universities had only a few geophysicists in physics department who did not have much power compared to, say, those in Astronomy or Nuclear Physics. Eventually, as the public became disillusioned with nuclear energy, research switched towards the environmental field.


The first professorship in meteorology and oceanography were established in the early part of the last century. The contacts between Meteorology and Oceanography departments were modest for many decades. But lately, meteorology seems to be at the center of environmental education and many students even outside meteorology are taking courses. As a result, it is becoming more broad-based. There are many more Universities with courses in meteorology and oceanography.

The journal of the JMS and JOS were started after the 1950's. I served as an editor for that journal until 1988. The annual meetings produce a very large number of abstracts. This time there were nearly 700 in all aspects including applied topics such as hydrology. But in general there was not much communication between government research efforts in geosciences and the efforts in Universities. After the recent merger between the Ministry of Science and Technology and Ministry of Education and Culture, communications have improved.

The Frontier system of research centers were conceived of by government officials - they used the word "Frontier" in the same sense as "Advanced". Initially, the first Frontier system was dedicated to research into the brain. The outlay of funds were tremendous for brain research unlike that for later Frontier Institutes. The idea was to bring together scientists temporarily to work on a problem for a period of time only. This is quite in contrast with the system of life-long employment in Japan. This is a new experiment and is in line with all the changes that are taking place in Japan.


In the mid-90's, the Ministry of Science and Technology decided to pursue a Frontier Institute for Global Change. I was a Professor in the University then. I was called upon to chair a committee, which was consulted on a report advocating a Frontier system for global change research. In Japan, government officials like to have consultations before taking decisions. This committee only gave broad outlines and we did not consider the funding or the actual scope of the undertaking. I was part of a later committee that looked at those specifics later.


So the Frontier System for Global Change Research is now established with input from both the government agencies such as the National Space Development Agencies (NASDA), Japan Marine Science and Technology Agency (JAMSTEC) and the participation of the Universities. So this is an experiment. Both the government scientific agencies and the Universities employees are used to a system where there is life long employment, a specific way of giving bonuses and continuity. So the Frontier System for Global Change Research that is only 5-7 years old is really an experiment. It will be interesting to see where it goes.


Island News Article: Saturday 8, June 2002.
Part of met. dept. land for new British embassy office building
By Himangi Jayasundere
The Government has agreed to provide part of the Meteorological Department land to the British embassy here triggering protests from researchers, and meteorologists.
The unpublicised construction plan is expected to take over one third of the Met. Department's land, a move researchers say will hinder the quality of the department's meteorological data.
A spokesman for the British High Commission yesterday confirmed the proposed construction. He said that a new office building of the embassy was to be built on the land in question which covers an extent of two acres. However, he refused to comment further saying it was "a government deal".
The Director of the Department of Meteorology when contacted, declined to comment, saying "I can't say, very sorry".
However, according to the 'South Asia Climate News' (SACN) website, the move will cramp up the Meteorology Department and preclude expansion in the future. Further "the integrity of a meteorological record which ranks as one of the finest in the tropics after Madras is at risk".
It points out that the move will result in 'compromising' on the data quality by cramping up the meteorological observations and through the impact of new big buildings in close proximity to instruments, it will also diminish the department's capacity to expand in the future. "Particularly in an area in which global warming has become such an important issue, the long data record in Colombo becomes extremely valuable even from a global standpoint and one needs to protect its integrity for the future from urbanisation in general and large constructions close by" the SACN said.
"The ease with which the government has handed over the land is symptomatic of the lack of appreciation of environmental data gathering" it added.

Pointing out that interpretations from the data is required for estimating the scope of climate change, understanding the implications of global pollution, vulnerability to hazards such as floods and droughts, in designing water resources systems, in providing aviation services in planning for wind and hydro electricity generation and in understanding the impact of climate on the health of the public.

"Hence, we are alarmed at the report that a good part of the land of the Department of Meteorology is to be handed over to house the British High Commission" the SACN said adding that this would lead to changes in wind and temperature measurements, while it would also result in difficulties in distinguishing the impact of urbanisation from that of actual climate change. "Indeed it is doubtful whether the full international standards of data can be maintained" it said adding that the impacts of relocation can also not be distinguished easily.

According to SACN construction has not begun yet and it may not be too late for reconsideration, perhaps in concert, with British meteorologists. Even if unsuccessful, such an effort may prevent further encroachments.

Meteorological Department land for British H.C. Nearly two acres of the Meteorological Department land is to be handed over to the British High Commission as an extension to their garden crippling many meteorological researches of one of Asia's best meteorological centres, Treasury sources said yesterday.

A number of past and present members of the Meteorological Department expressed fears that the relocation could make a difference in the pattern of research and observations, which were maintained during the past 150 years.

" The integrity of the meteorological record, ranked as only second best to Madras, in the region records is at risk," a former meteorologist said.

Most of the observation instruments would be re-located and cramped preventing a fair judgement, he warned.

The Head of the Meteorology Department refused to comment on the relocation adding that the decision was taken nearly one year back by the Treasury and Land Commissioner. He also stressed that they have no choice but to relocate, following the government directive.

Meanwhile a spokesperson for the British High Commission said that the decision for the hand over was taken at top government level and added that the land would be used to build an extension to the House of British High Commission.

http://www.dailymirror.lk/2002/07/23/News/4.html Lanka Academic Web Site Carries Story at http://www.lacnet.org/the_academic/archive/2002_06_06/index.shtml Ceylon Daily News Carries Appeal at http://www.dailynews.lk/2002/07/15/letters.html#4

Letter from Prof. Manfred Domroes:

Thank you very much for sending the NEWS concerning the handover of a good portion of the Department of Meteorology premises in Colombo to expand the British High Commission Residences. I am really shocked about the development that has already happened and that is intended to take place in future. Meteorological observations in Sri Lanka are among the eldest available in the world, with uninterrupted series of data available which are of immense value to the whole globe for climate change studies which effect the whole mankind. I strongly request the authorities concerned in Sri Lanka to maintain the status of meteorological and climatic measurements in Colombo without any disturbance. During the past 35 years I have often and regularly consulted the Department of Meteorology in order to achieve excellent observations.The quality of data is excellent and must be maintained in future. Reading that the measurements are already dislocated from the present site, I am deeply concerned about the future quality of data and their comparability with the past long-series data. I support all efforts withdrawing the plans to handover the Department of Meteorology lands and to enhance support for environmental data gathering in general. Prof. Dr.Dr.h.c. Manfred Domroes Affiliation: Senior Professor in Geography and Climatology Mainz University 55099 Mainz Germany Phone: +49-6131-39-22296 Fax: +49-6131-39-24735 eMail: physische.geographie@geo.uni-mainz.de Homepage: http://www.geo.uni-mainz.de/domroes

Climate Change, National Security and the British Embassy, by Lareef Zubair, was carried in all three English Daily News papers in Sri Lanka Island June 22, 2002 (see http://www.island.lk/2002/06/22/satmag01.html ) Daily Mirror June 18, 2002 (http://www.dailymirror.lk/2002/06/18/opinion/3.html) Ceylon Daily News (July 10, 2002) Also it was highlighted as a feature article in Lanka Academic Feature Page

Asia-Pacific Network Call for Proposals 2002

The Asia Pacific Network is calling for proposals for up to $100,000 per annum to foster global change research, increase developing country participation in research, strengthen interactions between science community and policy makers. The proposal should involve three approved countries. The deadline for the pre-proposals(optional) is June7, 2002 and for the full proposal is September 25, 2002. Contact: lstevenson@apn.gr.jp http://www.apn.gr.jp

START Young Scientist Awards- Application and Guidelines To recognize the achievements of outstanding young scientists from developing countries in Africa, Asia, and Oceania, the International START Secretariat is requesting nominations for the START Young Scientist Award Program. Award decisions will be based on a journal article published by the young scientist (preferably in English). In keeping with START?s mission of conducting research on regional aspects of global change, the article should focus on some aspect of global change research that is being conducted on a regional level or has a strong regional focus. Applicants for the START Young Scientist Awards must be 40 years of age or younger at time of deadline. In the case of multi-authored articles, the applicant should be the lead author of the article. The article should have been published within the last three years. Papers not yet published but in press can qualify for the award. In this case, a copy of the letter of acceptance from the journal must accompany the application materials. Articles will be reviewed in consultation with the respective START Regional Centers/Secretariats and by a special review committee. Completed applications consist of the following: * ONE journal article (multiple articles will not be reviewed) * A brief biography * Copy of letter of acceptance from the journal, if the article is not yet in print There is no specific application form. Applications are considered complete when all of the above materials are received. Incomplete application packages will not be reviewed. Please submit applications to: Ms. Amy Freise Program Coordinator International START Secretariat 2000 Florida Avenue, NW, Suite 200 Washington, DC 20009 USA Phone: (+1-202) 462-2213 Fax: (+1-202) 457-5859 E-mail: afreise@agu.org The deadline for submission of nominations/applications is June 30, 2002.

Proposal for International Climate Conferenece in Colombo in 2003: from Prof. Manfred Domroes

I urgently repeat my request to think over an international climate conference to take place in Colombo. A few years ago I have already suggested to you such a conference which should take place in Colombo bringing together international scientists who work scientifically on the climate of Sri Lanka. Such a meeting in Colombo should include all aspects of climate in Sri Lanka, including climate change. By myself, I have done substantial studies on many aspects of the climate of Sri Lanka, including climate change. My idea behind the conference is to publish as a result a wonderful textbook on Weather and Climate of Sri Lanka. Such book should deliver basic and detailed information to the academic world and to the interested people as well. I personally would suggest a chapter on Tourism Climate in Sri Lanka, for example.) There is a bulk of scientists with very good papers, and we easily can fill up a good conference. However, we must start preparation quickly. I even would suggest to have this Conference in Colombo, with the Department included. The intended conference should be an international one open to all scientists working on weather and climate of Sri Lanka.Above are just some preliminary ideas. It´s a good mixture to have a local and a foreign scientist plus an advisory board.

Prof. Dr.Dr.h.c. Manfred Domroes Department of Geography Mainz University 55099 Mainz Germany Phone: +49-6131-39-22296 Fax: +49-6131-39-24735 eMail: physische.geographie@geo.uni-mainz.de Homepage: http://www.geo.uni-mainz.de/domroes

Editors Comments: Further discussions with Prof. Domroes has established that there must be some one in Sri Lanka to help organize the conference. Any scientists based in Sri Lanka who are interested in such an undertaking are requested to contact Prof. Domroes or the editor.

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10th Asian Congress of Fluid Mechanics in Sri Lanka in May 2004 Prof. S. Sivasegeram (University of Peradeniya) writes: You may have heard that the next Asian Congress for Fluid Mechanics is to be Peradeniya in 2004 May. I hope that you will be around and encourage fellow Sri Lankans to participate.

Editors Comment: This is really tremendous news as this is an important congress and it was previously held in India, China, Japan, Iran and it may be the first time its being held in a smaller country. Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology have always been big themese in these conferences. It affords a venue for compiling and showcasing research in Sri Lanka in these fields related to Fluid Mechanics.

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SUBSCRIPTIONS

Name: Dr. Rohinton Emmanuel Address: Dept. of Architecture, University of Moratuwa Moratuwa 10400, SRI LANKA Telephone: (94) 1 651 047 (w); (94) 1 625 637 (h) Fax: (94) 1 650 622 Email: rohinton@mail.ac.lk Description of your involvement in the field: (use additional space as needed) My research centers on mitigating the negative effectsof the urban heat island (UHI) effects in tropical cities. I have done some work on the UHI phenomenon in the Colombo Metro Region (CMR). My empahsis is on the effects of UHI upon human comfort and cooling energy needs in tropical cities.

Name:       BUDDHIKA N. HEWAKANDAMBY
Address:    University of Sheffield, Dept. Chemical and Process Engineering,
                  Newcastle St, Sheffield, S1 3JD, United Kingdom


Telephone: +44 114 222 7570
Fax:           +44 114 222 7501
Email:       cpp98bnh@shef.ac.uk

Description of your involvement in the field: (use additional space as
needed)

I am a fluid dynamist who has a general interest in geophysical flows. Most
of my work is based on thin films though I have published on Dynamics of
Atmospheres and Oceans (Elsavier). The publication is on a stability
analysis to investigate the limiting parameter space using a multiple scale
perturbation scheme. Novelty of the scheme is that it can accomodate non
periodic disturbances given that the amplitude is small.

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Sri Lanka Meteorology, Oceanography and Hydrology Network

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Lareef Zubair 103 Monell Building, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, P.O.Box 1000, Palisades, NY 10964-8000, U.S.A or to Lareef Zubair, c/o Natural Resources Management Services, Mahaweli Authority of Sri Lanka, Dam Site, Polgolla, Sri Lanka. Email: slmon_news@hotmail.com to Contents