Macartan Humphreys
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[This page describes ongoing field projects; for information on completed projects and theoretical research visit the writing section. ]

I am working on a number of field projects on development. Many of these are what we call “field experiments”–a research strategy in which researchers work very closely with development agencies, politicians and practitioners in order to study fundamental causal processes. The key idea of a field experiment is that some form of lottery is used in order to be able to identify truly comparable "treatment" and "control" groups, much as is done in health or agricultural research. While this approach has not be used much to study the political economy of development in the past it holds a lot of potential. Researchers can get much higher quality data than is normally available from "off the shelf" approaches, or from observational studies. Organizations that partner with them can get pro bono support in designing first rate evaluations. Not only can the allocation of resources be more transparent and equitable using this approach but organizations will be in a strong position to make evidence-based claims about the developmental impacts of their programs.

Here are some of the main project I am involved in a the moment:

Postconflict development in Congo (with the IRC). We are working on a major study of the political and economic impacts of development aid in Eastern DR Congo. The DRC study has a population coverage of approximately 1.8 million people and will continue until 2011 (see baseline survey and report). In addition to using public lotteries to generate a control group we are using randomized intervention to examine the impacts of gender quotas for decision making. Our baseline survey was conducted in summer of 2007, final surveys and measures will be taken in 2010-2011. The big questions here are: is development aid effective in building peace? Do provisions to promote women’s representation in decision making help?

Parliamentary Accountability in Uganda (with Jeremy Weinstein, supported by CGD and AusAID). We are working with the African Leadership Initiative to produce annual scorecards for all of Uganda's members of parliament, recording their behavior in the parliament, in committee and in their constituencies (see the 2007 and 2008 scorecards and a motivating model). This information is then made available through workshops to about half of the constituencies in the country. The major questions are: does knowing more allow constituents to hold their representatives accountable? Does anticipation of this alter elite behavior?

Technological diffusion and climate change (with Vijay Modi, Jiehua Chen and the Uganda Millennium villages). If energy efficient woodstoves are adopted on a large enough scale, households will be able to benefit from funds delivered through the Clean Development Mechanism. Technology adoption however is often slow and not well understood. In this field experiment we are using randomized seeding of the new technology to learn about diffusion process through social networks and assess how best to support the development of a market for this kind of technology.

[Photo credit: MVP]

War in Aceh (with Jeremy Weinstein, Laura Paler and Paddy Barron; supported by the Folke Bernadotte Academy). In a study of post conflict development undertaken with the World Bank, we are looking at the effectiveness of a large community driven development project in Aceh. As part of this we have undertaken a large comprehensive survey of over 1000 GAM fighters to study why they joined, how they behaved during the war, and how they return to lives as civilians..

[Photo of Acehnese GAM fighters at left is from the BBC website, credited to AFP]

Conflict and cohesion in Liberia (with Jim Fearon, Jeremy Weinstein and IRC). In this field experiment we have been studying the political effects of development aid in Lofa county in Northern Liberia. The core idea is that aid is delivered in a way that gives communities a big say in how it is to be used. The big question is does development aid delivered in this way work? Does it affect the way communities make collective decisions? We have been exploring the use of behavioral measures of the form used by behavioral economists to see if the intervention has had an effect on how communities work together. Our evidence says that it did (see AER paper and this working paper, also this summary of lessons learned).

[Photo credit: Gwen Taylor. The man is holding an example of a ballot used in his community to decide on priority development needs. The poster in the background is a reminder that this in this post conflict many are still displaced and missing]

Conflict mapping in Congo (supported by USAID). A lot of research on conflict suffers because of poor quality data. Researchers often rely on events data collected by media and official organizations or on recall based questions in surveys. We are now running a pilot in Congo to see whether it is feasible to collect systematic data on conflict events through a system in which large numbers of phone holders in remote areas (conditional on phone coverage) register conflict events on behalf of their communities in real time through an automated SMS system.

[Photo: Peter van der Windt: We adopt a very public approach in villages and only employ the system in the village collectively agrees; this image show one village saying yes.]

[This page describes ongoing field projects; for information on completed projects and theoretical research visit the writing section. ] I am working on a number of field projects on development. Many of these are what we call “field experiments”–a research strategy in which researchers work very closely with development agencies, politicians and practitioners in order to study fundamental causal processes. The key idea of a field experiment is that some form of lottery is used in order to be able to identify truly comparable "treatment" and "control" groups, much as is done in health or agricultural research. While this approach has not be used much to study the political economy of development in the past it holds a lot of potential. Researchers can get much higher quality data than is normally available from "off the shelf" approaches, or from observational studies. Organizations that partner with them can get pro bono support in designing first rate evaluations. Not only can the allocation of resources be more transparent and equitable using this approach but organizations will be in a strong position to make evidence-based claims about the developmental impacts of their programs. Here are some of the main project I am involved in a the moment:
	Postconflict development in Congo (with the IRC). We are working on a major study of the political and economic impacts of development aid in Eastern DR Congo. The DRC study has a population coverage of approximately 1.8 million people and will continue until 2011 (see baseline survey and report). In addition to using public lotteries to generate a control group we are using randomized intervention to examine the impacts of gender quotas for decision making. Our baseline survey was conducted in summer of 2007, final surveys and measures will be taken in 2010-2011. The big questions here are: is development aid effective in building peace? Do provisions to promote women’s representation in decision making help?
Parliamentary Accountability in Uganda (with Jeremy Weinstein, supported by CGD and AusAID). We are working with the African Leadership Initiative to produce annual scorecards for all of Uganda's members of parliament, recording their behavior in the parliament, in committee and in their constituencies (see the 2007 and 2008 scorecards and a motivating model). This information is then made available through workshops to about half of the constituencies in the country. The major questions are: does knowing more allow constituents to hold their representatives accountable? Does anticipation of this alter elite behavior?
	Technological diffusion and climate change (with Vijay Modi, Jiehua Chen and the Uganda Millennium villages). If energy efficient woodstoves are adopted on a large enough scale, households will be able to benefit from funds delivered through the Clean Development Mechanism. Technology adoption however is often slow and not well understood. In this field experiment we are using randomized seeding of the new technology to learn about diffusion process through social networks and assess how best to support the development of a market for this kind of technology. [Photo credit: MVP]
War in Aceh (with Jeremy Weinstein, Laura Paler and Paddy Barron; supported by the Folke Bernadotte Academy). In a study of post conflict development undertaken with the World Bank, we are looking at the effectiveness of a large community driven development project in Aceh. As part of this we have undertaken a large comprehensive survey of over 1000 GAM fighters to study why they joined, how they behaved during the war, and how they return to lives as civilians.. [Photo of Acehnese GAM fighters at left is from the BBC website, credited to AFP]
	Conflict and cohesion in Liberia (with Jim Fearon, Jeremy Weinstein and IRC). In this field experiment we have been studying the political effects of development aid in Lofa county in Northern Liberia. The core idea is that aid is delivered in a way that gives communities a big say in how it is to be used. The big question is does development aid delivered in this way work? Does it affect the way communities make collective decisions? We have been exploring the use of behavioral measures of the form used by behavioral economists to see if the intervention has had an effect on how communities work together. Our evidence says that it did (see AER paper and this working paper, also this summary of lessons learned). [Photo credit: Gwen Taylor. The man is holding an example of a ballot used in his community to decide on priority development needs. The poster in the background is a reminder that this in this post conflict many are still displaced and missing]
Conflict mapping in Congo (supported by USAID). A lot of research on conflict suffers because of poor quality data. Researchers often rely on events data collected by media and official organizations or on recall based questions in surveys. We are now running a pilot in Congo to see whether it is feasible to collect systematic data on conflict events through a system in which large numbers of phone holders in remote areas (conditional on phone coverage) register conflict events on behalf of their communities in real time through an automated SMS system. [Photo: Peter van der Windt: We adopt a very public approach in villages and only employ the system in the village collectively agrees; this image show one village saying yes.]