Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

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Figure in Author Summary Published in Print

Figure P1. Frequency of occurence (y-axis) of local temperature anomalies divided by local standard deviation (x-axis) obtained by binning all local results for the indicated region and 11-year period into 0.05 frequency intervals. Area under each curve isunity. Standard deviations are for the 1951-1980 period.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2012/02/07)

Data for part A, part B, part C, part D.
Only part A in PDF.

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Figure in GISS Popular Science Page

A.

In PDF: All 4, (Last modified: 2012/08/03)

D.


In PDF: All 4, 1951-1980, 1981-1991, 1991-2001, 2001-2011. (Last modified: 2012/08/03)

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Updates of Figures Published in PNAS Plus On-Line

NOAA terminated GHCN V2 at November 2011. So we are switching to GHCN V3 for updates. For the difference between V2 and V3, please see this page. We also switched to ERSST for ocean temperature.

Figure 1. Jun-Jul-Aug surface temperature anomalies in 1955, 1965, 1975 and the past six years relative to 1951-1980 mean. Number on upper right is the global mean (average over all area with data).
In PDF. (Last modified: 2014/01/12)

Figure 1 but Dec-Jan-Feb. In PDF. (Last modified: 2014/01/12)

Figure 2. Standard deviation of local Jun-Jul-Aug (above) and Dec-Jan-Feb (below) mean surface temperature for 30-year-periods 1951-1980 (left maps) and 1981-2010. In the middle maps the local 30-year (1981-2010) temperature trend was removed before calculating the standard deviation.
In PDF (Last modified: 2012/01/19)


Standard Deviation using ERSST (now used in GISS Temperature analysis) In PDF (Last modified: 2014/01/14)

Figure 2 top, but for NH land only.
In PDF (Last modified: 2012/07/26)


In PDF (Last modified: 2014/01/14)

Figure 3. Jun-Jul-Aug surface temperature anomalies in 1955, 1965, 1975 and 2006-2011 relative to 1951-1980 mean temperature in units of the local detrended 1981-2010 standard deviation of temperature. Numbers above each map are percent of surface area covered by each category in the color bar.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2011/12/31)

Figure 4. Frequency of occurence (y-axis) of local temperature anomalies (relative to 1951-1980 mean) divided by local standard deviations (x-axis) obtained by counting how many gridboxes have anomalies within each 0.05 interval over 11-year periods. Area under each curve is unity.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2011/12/31)

Figure 5. Area covered by temperature anomalies in the categories defined as hot (> 0.43σ), very hot (> 2σ), and extremely hot (> 3σ) with analogous divisions for cold anomalies. Anomalies are relative to 1951-1980 climatology, with σ also from 1951-1980 data. Lowest row is Southern Hemisphere summer.
n PDF. (Last modified: 2012/01/26)

Figure 6.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2012/05/11)

In two colors; dark red for extremely hot areas and white for the rest. Numbers after yea r numbers are the percent of the extremely hot areas and those at the top right are the me an of anomaly/standard deviation over the defined areas. 1977-1988, 198 9-2000, 2001-2011.

Figure 6 but S. Hemisphere.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2012/05/11)

Figure 6 but for both hemispheres.
InPDF. (Last modified: 2012/01/24)

Figure 6 but Dec-Jan-Feb.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2012/05/11)

Figure 6 but Dec-Jan-Feb in S. Hemisphere.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2012/06/06)

Figure 6 but Dec-Jan-Feb and for bothe hemispheres. (Last modified: 2012/03/20)

Figure 7. Percent area covered by temperature anomalies categpries defined as hot (> 0.43σ), very hot (> 2σ), and extremely hot (> 3σ). Anomalies are relative to 1951-1980 climatology; σ is from 1951-1980 data, but results are similar for the alternative choices in Figure 2.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2012/01/26)

Figure 8. Jun-Jul-Aug and Dec-Jan-Feb temperature anomalies (°C) for area shown on the right.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2011/10/18)

Figure 9. Frequency of occurrence (y-axis) of local temperature anomalies divided by local standard deviation (x-axis) obtained by binning all local results for 11-year periods into 0.05 frequency intervals. Area under each curve is unity. Standard deviations are for the indicated base periods.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2012/01/19)

Figure 9 but only for the base periods and 2001-2011.
In PDF. (Last modified: 2012/07/31)

Figure S1. Jun-Jul-Aug surface temperature anomalies in 1931, 1934, 1936, 1941, 1947, 1953. Number on upper right is the global mean (average over all area with data).
In PDF. (Last modified: 2012/03/26)

Figure S2. Jun-Jul-Aug surface temperature anomalies over land in 1931, 1934, 1936, 1941, 1947, 1953 relative to 1951-1980 mean temperature in unit of the local 1951-1980 standard deviation of temperature. Numbers above each map are the percent of surface area covered by each category in the color bar. Figure in PDF. (Last modified: 2012/03/26)

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With 1931-1980 for the anomaly base period and standard deviation calculations

With GHCN-M version 2 used in PNAS paper, Fig. 1 (Jun-Jul-Aug), Fig. 1 (Dec-Jan-Feb) (2012/08/08)

With GHCN-M version 3 which we should use from now, Fig. 1 (Jun-Jul-Aug), Fig. 1 (Dec-Jan-Feb) (2012/08/07)

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With GHCN-M version 2 used in PNAS paper, Fig.2 (2012/08/08)

With GHCN-M version 3 which we should use from now, Fig.2 (2012/08/09)

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With GHCN-M version 3 which we should use from now, Fig.6 (2012/08/09)

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With GHCN-M version 3 which we should use from now, Colored Bell Curves.

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Extra Figures not Shown in the Paper

In the U.S. and the northern part of Eurasia the winters were very cold in the late 1970s. We should check how large portions were with < -3σ.

Dec-Jan-Feb, 1977-1979. (Last modified: 2012/03/20)

Dec-Jan-Feb, 1977-1979. (Last modified: 2012/03/20)

(Last modified: 2012/03/20)

(Last modified: 2012/03/20)

(Last modified: 2012/03/20)

The results show that although there were regions with T < -4C, there was not much area with < -3σ because standard deviations were large in winter, ~2C in the very cold regions and these regions sum up negligible when we look at the whole NH land.

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Regional Summer Temperature in Longer Time Period

The work below was done more recently with GHCN v3, so you may see slight difference from Fig. 8, but it won't change our basic results.

PDF The middle row shows the temperature anomalies in °C, and the bottom row shows the temperature anomalies in the units of the local 1951-1980 standard deviations. Data through 2011. Updated on 2012/03/23