Stefania Albanesi: Research
Maternal Health and the Baby
Boom
Stefania Albanesi, Columbia University, NBER and CEPR
Claudia Olivetti, Boston University and NBER
June 2010 (First version: May 2009)
Abstract
Abstract U.S. fertility rose from a low of 2.27 children for women born in 1908 to a peak of 3.21 children for women born in 1932. It dropped to a new low of 1.74 children for women born in 1949, before stabilizing for subsequent cohorts. We propose a novel explanation for this boom-bust pattern, linking it to the huge improvements in maternal health that started in the mid 1930s. Our hypothesis is that the improvements in maternal health contributed to the mid-twentieth century baby boom and generated a rise in women's human capital, ultimately leading to a decline in desired fertility for subsequent cohorts. To examine this link empirically, we exploit the large cross-state variation in the magnitude of the decline in pregnancy-related mortality and the differential exposure by cohort. We find that the decline in maternal mortality is associated with a rise in fertility for women born between 1921 and 1940, with a rise in college and high school graduation rates for women born in 1933-1950, and with a decline in fertility for women born in 1941-1950. These findings are consistent with a theory of fertility featuring a trade-off between the quality and quantity of children. The analysis provides new insights on the determinants of fertility in the U.S. and other countries that experienced similar improvements in maternal health.
JEL Classification: J11, J13, J24, N12, N3, N92
Keywords: Maternal mortality; Fertility choice; Human capital; Baby Boom; Baby Bust.
Data (Compressed file. Data in
dta format. See Extended Appendix for details.)
Older version: NBER WP 16146
This work is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.
Last updated: 6/22/2010.