### GORE WIN LIKELY IN ELECTORAL COLLEGE

By considering current polls in the battleground states and their statistical error, we infer a likely win in the Electoral College for Gore
1. Gore Favored in the Electoral College , by Robert S. Erikson and Karl Sigman.

### US Presidential Election 2000: Updated Saturday November 4; results have sharpened

AS THE EVIDENCE FROM STATE POLLS ACCUMULATES, THE CASE FOR A GORE ADVANTAGE IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE UNDER A DEAD HEAT POPULAR VOTE SCENARIO HAS SHARPENED.THE MOST INTERESTING QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE CRITICAL VALUE OF THE POPULAR VOTE AT WHICH THE ODDS OF WINNING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE IS THE SAME FOR BOTH CANDIDATES. THE ANSWER IS 51.4 BUSH/48.6 GORE (OF THE TWO-PARTY VOTE). IN OTHER WORDS THE BREAK EVEN POINT IS A BUSH ADVANTAGE OF ABOUT 2.8 POINTS IN THE POPULAR VOTE. IF THE POPULAR VOTE IS EVEN, THEN GORE WINS WITH VIRTUAL CERTAINTY. IF BUSH LEADS BY 5 POINTS IN THE POPULAR VOTE, THEN BUSH WINS AN ELECTORAL COLLEGE LANDSLIDE.
1. A Dead Heat and the Electoral College (G.W. Bush versus Al Gore), by Robert S. Erikson and Karl Sigman.

2. A Simple Stochastic Model For Close US Presidential Elections, by Robert S. Erikson and Karl Sigman. (The basics in this paper are applied in the above paper to the US Presidential Election 2000.)