Updating the Climate Science
What Path is the Real World Following?
Makiko Sato & James Hansen
Columbia University Earth Institute
web page maintained by Makiko Sato (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Our aim is to help people understand global climate change and how the factors that
drive climate are changing.
We start with climate diagnostics people are usually most interested in climate change itself.
But cause-and-effect analysis requires also data on climate forcings (which drive climate change)
and feedbacks (which amplify or diminish climate change).
We update graphs of "Storms of My Grandchildren." Yet the greatest insight about
processes discussed in "Storms" is often provided by other quantities, for example, the rate of ice
sheet disintegration. We include some data from other scientists or their web sites, as indicated.
Continual updating of data curves, whether global temperature, the Greenland ice sheet mass,
the sun's brightness, Keeling's carbon dioxide record, or other more
obscure quantities, is a most interesting aspect of science. Sometimes data curves follow an
expected path, sometimes not, but we usually learn something. As Richard Feynman said, there is a
pleasure of finding things out.
That pleasure is now mixed with concern. Humans are altering the measured curves.
But whether climate change will be moderate
something humans and most species can adjust to or whether climate change accelerates and
spins out of control, with devastating consequences for future generations that depends.
Future climate depends on how climate forcings change human-made greenhouse
gases, especially carbon dioxide, and forcings that are not yet well measured, especially aerosols.
The speed and degree of climate change also will depend upon how fast amplifying feedbacks,
such as Arctic sea ice, the large ice sheets, and methane hydrates come into play.
Construction of this web site is just beginning.
But already there are interesting new data.
"Storms of My Grandchildren" by James Hansen
Critical Climate Diagnostics and Feedbacks
Global Temperature Change (2010)
- "Global Surface Temperature Change" published in Reviews of Geophysics
- Figures only (last modified 2010/10/07)
- Press Release (2011/01/12)
and Discussions (2012/01/18)
Earth's Energy Imbalance (2011)
- "Earth's Energy Imbalance and Implications" published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
- Figures only (last modified 2013/05/06)
- Press Release (2012/01/30) and Popular Science Summary (2012/01) .
Paleoclimate Implications (2012)
"Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change" published in Climate Change by Springer on June 15.
- Figures only (last modified 2011/07/18)
Perceptions and Dice (2012 and 2013)
- "Perceptions of climate change" PNAS 2012 109 (37) E2415-E2423.
Author Summary and Full Text published ahead of print August 6, 2012.
- Figures only (last modified 2012/09/20)
- Press Release (2012/08/06), Science Briefs" (2012/08) and Discussions (2012/08/11)
- "Reply to Rhines and Huybers: Changes in the frequency of extreme summer heat" PNAS 2013 110 (7) E547-E548; published ahead of print February 5, 2013.
- Figures only (last modified 2013/01/28)
- "Reply to Stone et al.: Human-made role in local temperature extremes" PNAS 2013 110 (17) E1544; published ahead of print March 19, 2013.
- Figure only (last modified 2013/01/30)
Climate Forcing Growth Rates (2013)
- "Climate Forcing Growth Rates: Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain" Environ. Res. Lett. 8 011066 (9pp)
- Figures only (last modified 2013/03/07)
- Popular science summary. (2013/03/29)
Climate Sensitivity (2013)
- "Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric CO2 " submitted to Phil
. Trans. R. Soc. A in May 2012, revised in January 2013 and will be published in July 2013. Posted on arXiv on 2013/04/02.
- Figures & Table (last modified 2013/01/02)
Case for Young People (2013?)
- "Scientific Case for Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change to Protect Young People and Nature" posted on arXiv on 2012/03/23. A newer version submitted to PLOS ONE on 2013/03/27.
- Figures Only
(last modified 2013/03/24)