Adam Sobel's Academic Publications


Peer-reviewed journal articles

Either use the list below, or my profile on Web of Science, ORCID or Google Scholar.

2024

(incl. in review or press)
  • Sena, Patricola, Camargo, and Sobel, 2024: The atmospheric effect of aerosols on future tropical cyclone frequency and precipitation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics, submitted. PDF file.
  • Fosu, Sobel, Lee, Camargo, Tippett, Hemmati, Drinka, Polamuri, Bowen, Bloemendaal, 2024: Assessing future tropical cyclone risk using downscaled CMIP6 projections. Journal of Catastrophe Risk and Resilience, submitted. PDF file.
  • Lin, Lee, Camargo, and Sobel, 2024: Poleward migration of the latitude of maximum tropical cyclone intensity --- forced or natural? Journal of Climate, submitted. PDF file
  • Cohen, Sobel, Biasutti, Wang, Simpson, Gettelman, and Hu, 2024: Implementation and exploration of parametrizations of large-scale dynamics in NCAR's Single Column Atmosphere Model SCAM6. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, in press. PDF file
  • Ivanovich, Sobel, Horton, and Raymond, 2024: Stickiness: A new variable to characterize the temperature and humidity contributions toward humid heat. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, in press. PDF file
  • Orenstein, Sobel, Camargo, Elsaesser, and Garg, 2024: The global seasonal relationship between satellite-observed cold pools and rainfall. Journal of Climate, submitted. PDF file
  • Bunge, Sobel, Biasutti, and Wang, 2024: Variable rainfall over steady SST: the effect of the free troposphere on surface pressure and convergence in the East Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 81, 53-63, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-23-0101.1.
  • Ivanovich, Horton, Sobel, and Singh, 2024: Subseasonal variability of humid heat during the South Asian summer monsoon. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL107382, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107382. Abstract and full text (open access).

    2023

  • Sobel, Lee, Bowen, Camargo, Cane, Clement, Fosu, Hart, Reed, Seager, and Tippett, 2023: Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 120, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2209631120.
  • Lee, Sobel, Tippett, Camargo, and Wuëst, 2023: Climate change signal in hurricanes today and near future. Earth's Future, 11, e2023EF003539, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003539. Abstract and full text (open access).
  • Lin, Rousseau-Rizzi, Lee, and Sobel, 2023: An open-source, physics-based, tropical cyclone downscaling model with intensity-dependent steering. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15, e2023MS003686, https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS003686. Abstract and full text (open access).
  • Baldwin, Lee, Walsh, Camargo, and Sobel, 2023: Vulnerability in a tropical cyclone risk model: Philippines case study. Weather, Climate, and Society, 15, 503-523, https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-22-0049.1. Abstract and full text (open access)

    2022

  • Hemmati, Camargo, and Sobel, 2022: How are Atlantic basin-wide hurricane activity and economic losses related? Environmental Research: Climate, doi:10.1088/2752-5295/aca118. Abstract and PDF file (open access).
  • Wang and Sobel, 2022b: A filtered model for the tropical intraseasonal moisture mode. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098320.
  • Qin, Yuan, Wang, Chen, Dai, Sobel, Meng, and Nie, 2022: Climate change attribution of the 2022 Henan extreme precipitation: impacts of convective organization. Science China Earth Sciences, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-022-9953-0. PDF file
  • Wang, Martin, Sobel, Tippett, Dias, Kiladis, Ren, and Wu, 2022: A Multivariate index for tropical intraseasonal oscillations based on the seasonally-varying modal structures. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2021JD035961.
  • Hill, Sobel, Biasutti, and Cane, 2022: On the all-India rainfall index and sub-India rainfall heterogeneity. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, doi:10.1029/2021GL096541.
  • Huaman, Schumacher, and Sobel, 2022: Assessing the vertical velocity of the East Pacific ITCZ. Geophysical Research Letters, 49, doi:10.1029/2021GL096192.
  • Lee, Sobel, Camargo, Tippett, and Yang, 2022: New York State hurricane hazard: history and future projections. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0173.1. PDF file.
  • Ivanovich, Anderson, Horton, Raymond, and Sobel, 2022: The influence of intraseasonal oscillations on humid heat in the Persian Gulf and South Asia. Journal of Climate, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0488. PDF file supplement.
  • Wang and Sobel, 2022a: A unified moisture mode theory for the MJO and BSISO. Journal of Climate, 35, 1267-1291, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0361.1.
  • Russotto, Strong, Camargo, Sobel, Elsaesser, Kelley, Del Genio, Moon, and Kim, 2021: Evolution of tropical cyclone properties across the development cycle of the GISS-E3 global climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14, e2021MS002601, doi:10.1029/2021MS002601. PDF file (open access).
  • Datt, Camargo, Sobel, McTaggart-Cowan, and Wang, 2022: An investigation of tropical cyclone development pathways as an indicator of extratropical transition. Journal of the Japanese Meteorological Society, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2022-037. Abstract and PDF file (open access).

    2021

  • Sobel, Wing, Camargo, Vecchi, Patricola, Lee, and Tippett, 2021: Tropical cyclone frequency. Earth's Future, 9, doi:10.1029/2021EF002275. Abstract and PDF file (open access).
  • Martin, Son, Butler, Hendon, Kim, Sobel, Yoden, and Zhang, 2021: The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the Madden-Julian oscillation. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, https://doi.org/10.1038/ s43017-021-00173-9.
  • Martin, Orbe, Wang, and Sobel, 2021: The MJO-QBO relationship in a GCM with stratospheric nudging. Journal of Climate, 34, 4603-4624.
  • Liu, Camargo, and Sobel, 2021: Understanding differences in tropical cyclone activity over the Arabian sea and Bay of Bengal. Mausam, 72, 187-198.
  • Sobel, 2021: Usable climate science is adaptation science. Climatic Change, 166, 8. Preprint View-only full text
  • Sobel, Sprintall, Maloney, Martin, Wang, de Szoeke, Trabing, and Rutledge, 2021: Large-scale state and evolution of the atmosphere and ocean during PISTON 2018. Journal of Climate, 34, 5017-5035. PDF file
  • Martin, Sobel, Wang, and Butler, 2021: Variability in QBO temperature anomalies on annual and decadal timescales. Journal of Climate, 34, 589-605. PDF file
  • Johnston, Wang, Lee, Moum, Rudnick, and Sobel, 2021: Near-inertial wave propagation in the wake of Super Typhoon Mangkhut: Measurements from a profiling Float array. Journal of Geophysical Research, 126, doi: 10.1029/2020JC016749. PDF file

    2020

  • Wang, Sobel, Lee, Ma, Chen, Curcic, and Pullen, 2020: Propagating mechanisms of the 2016 Summer BSISO Event: air-sea coupling, vorticity, and moisture. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2020JD033284.
  • Lee, Camargo, Vitart, Sobel, Camp, Wang, Tippett, and Yang, 2020: Sub-seasonal predictions of tropical cyclone occurrence and ACE in the S2S dataset. Weather and Forecasting, 35, 921-938. Abstract and full text
  • Nie, Dai, and Sobel 2020: Dry and moist dynamics shape regional patterns of extreme precipitation sensitivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.1913584117 .
  • Camargo and coauthors, 2020: Characteristics of model tropical cyclone climatology and the large-scale environment. Journal of Climate, 33, 4463-4487.
  • Martin, Vitart, Wang, and Sobel, 2020:The impact of the stratosphere on the MJO in a forecast model. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2019JD032106.
  • Bieli, Sobel, Camargo, Murakami, and Vecchi, 2020b: Application of the cyclone phase space to extratropical transition in a global climate model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:10.1029/2019MS001878.
  • Shepherd and Sobel, 2020: Localness in climate change. Comparative Studies of South Asia, Africa and the Middle East, 40 (1), 7-16.
  • Lee, Camargo, Sobel, and Tippett, 2020: Statistical-dynamical downscaling projections of tropical cyclone activity in a warming climate: Two diverging genesis scenarios. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0452.1. Abstract and full text
  • Bieli, Sobel, Camargo, and Tippett, 2020a: A statistical model to predict the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones. Weather and Forecasting, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-19-0045.1. Abstract and full text

    2019

  • Camargo, Camp, Elsberry, Gregory, Klotzbach, Schreck, Sobel, Ventrice, Vitart, Wang, Wheeler, Yamaguchi, and Zhan, 2019: Tropical cyclone prediction on subseasonal time-scales. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 8, 150, doi: 10.6057/2019TCRR03.04. abstract & full text (open access).
  • Ma, Sobel, Kuang, Singh, and Nie, 2019: A moist entropy budget view of the South Asian summer monsoon onset. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, doi:10.1029/2019GL082089. PDF file
  • Wang, Tippett, Sobel, Martin, and Vitart, 2019: Impact of the QBO on prediction and predictability of the MJO convection. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1029/2019JD030575. PDF file
  • Moon, Kim, Camargo, Wing, Sobel, Murakami, Reed, Scoccimarro, Vecchi, Wehner, Zarzycki, and Zhao, 2019: Wind and thermodynamic structures of tropical cyclones in global climate models and their sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0172.1. PDF file
  • Sobel, Lee, Camargo, Mandli, Emanuel, Mukhopadhyay, and Mahakur, 2019: Tropical cyclone hazard to Mumbai in the recent historical climate. Monthly Weather Review, 147, 2355-2366. PDF file
  • Maher, Gerber, Medeiros, Merlis, Sherwood, Sheshadri, Sobel, Vallis, Voigt, and Zurita-Gotor, 2019: Model hierarchies for understanding atmospheric circulation. Reviews of Geophysics, 57, 250-280.
  • Wing, Camargo, Sobel, Kim, Moon, Murakami, Reed, Vecchi, Wehner, Zarzycki, and Zhao, 2019: Moist static energy budget analysis of tropical cyclone formation and intensification in high-resolution climate models. Journal of Climate, 32, 6071-6095. PDF file
  • Maloney and many co-authors, 2019: A framework for process-oriented evaluation of climate and weather forecasting models. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 100, 1665-1686. PDF file
  • Martin, Wang, Nie, and Sobel, The influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on the Madden-Julian oscillation in idealized cloud-resolving simulations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 76, 669-688. PDF file
  • Sobel, Camargo, and Previdi, 2019: Aerosol vs. greenhouse gas effects on tropical cyclone potential intensity and the hydrologic cycle. Journal of Climate, 32, 5511-5527, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0357.1. PDF file
  • Bieli, Camargo, Sobel, Evans, and Hall, 2019a: A global climatology of extratropical transition, Part I: Characteristics across basins. Journal of Climate, 32, 3557-3582. PDF file
  • Bieli, Camargo, Sobel, Evans, and Hall, 2019b: A global climatology of extratropical transition, Part II: Statistical performance of the cyclone phase space. Journal of Climate, 32, 3583-3597. PDF file

    2018

  • Nie, Sobel, Shaevitz, and Wang, 2018: Dynamic amplification of extreme precipitation sensitivity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.1800357115. Open access, link goes to full text.
  • Wang, Ma, Sobel, and Tippett, 2018: Propagation characteristics of BSISO indices. Geophysical Research Letters, 45, 9934-9943, doi: 10.1029/2018GL078321.
  • Wang, Sobel, Tippett, and Vitart, 2018: Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-018-4492-9. PDF file
  • Sobel, Pillai, et al., 2018: Improving Lead Time for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting: Review of Operational Practices and Implications for Bangladesh. World Bank, Washington, DC, 56 pp. PDF file
  • Biasutti and coauthors, 2018: Global energetics and local physics as drivers of past, present and future monsoons. Nature Geoscience, 11, 392-400.
  • Shepherd and coauthors, 2018: Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-018-2317-9. PDF file
  • Lee, Camargo, Sobel, Vitart, and Tippett, 2018b: Sub-seasonal tropical cyclone genesis prediction and MJO in the S2S dataset. Weather and Forecasting, doi:10.1175/WAF-D-17-0165.1. Abstract and full text
  • Wang, Lee, Waliser, Zhang, Sobel, Maloney, Li, Jiang, and Ha, 2018: Dynamics-oriented diagnostics for the Madden-Julian oscillation. Journal of Climate, 31, 3117-3135. PDF file
  • Tandon, Zhang, and Sobel, 2018: Understanding the dynamics of future changes in extreme precipitation intensity. Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076361.
  • Lee, Tippett, Sobel, and Camargo, 2018a: An environmentally forced tropical cyclone hazard model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, DOI: 10.1002/2017MS001186. PDF file
  • Kim, Moon, Camargo, Wing, Sobel, Murakami, Vecchi, Zhao, and Page, 2018: Process-oriented diagnosis of tropical cyclones in high-resolution GCMs. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0269.1. PDF file

    2017

  • Adames, Kim, Sobel, Del Genio, and Wu, 2017: Characterization of moist processes associated with changes in the propagation of the MJO with increasing CO2. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9, doi: 10.1002/2017MS001040. Open access, link goes to full text.
  • Wang, Tippett, Sobel, and Anichowski, 2017: Seasonal noise vs. subseasonal signal: forecasts of California precipitation during the unusual winters of 2015-16 and 2016-17. Geophysical Research Letters, 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL075052.
  • Allen, Tippett, Kaheil, Sobel, Lepore, and Nong, 2017: An extreme value model for United States hail size. Monthly Weather Review, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-17-0119.1 PDF file
  • Nakamura, Camargo, Sobel, Henderson, Emanuel, Kumar, LaRow, Murakami, Roberts, Scoccimarro, Vidale, Wang, Wehner, and Zhao, 2017: Western north Pacific tropical cyclone model tracks in present and future climates. Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/2017JD027007.
  • Adames, Kim, Sobel, and Del Genio, 2017: Changes in the structure and propagation of the MJO with increasing CO2. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9, doi:10.1002/2017MS000913. Open access, link goes to full text.
  • Wang and Sobel, 2017: Factors controlling rain on small tropical islands: diurnal cycle, large-scale wind speed, and topography. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:10.1175/JAS-D-16-0344.1. PDF file
  • Anber, Wang, and Sobel 2017: Coupling with ocean mixed layer leads to intraseasonal variability in tropical deep convection - evidence from cloud-resolving simulations. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9, 616-626, doi:10.1002/2016MS000803. Open access, link goes to full text.
  • Duvel, Camargo, and Sobel, 2017: Role of the convection scheme in modeling initiation and intensification of tropical depressions over the North Atlantic. Monthly Weather Review, 145, 1495-1509. PDF file
  • Waugh, Sobel, and Polvani, 2017: What is the polar vortex, and how does it influence weather? Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 98, 37-44. PDF file

    2016

  • Sobel, Camargo, Hall, Lee, Tippett, and Wing, 2016: Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity. Science, 353, 242-246, DOI: 10.1126/science.aaf6574. Free links to paper (available from this page only): Abstract Full text Reprint
  • Hsiang and Sobel, 2016: Potentially extreme population displacement and concentration in the tropics under non-extreme warming. Sci. Rep., 6, 25697. Open access, link goes to full text.
  • Wheeler, Zhu, Sobel, Hudson, and Vitart, 2016: Seamless precipitation prediction skill comparison between two global models Quart. J. Royal Met. Soc.,DOI:10.1002/qj.2928. PDF file
  • Camargo, Sobel, Del Genio, Jonas, Kelley, Lu, Shaevitz, and Henderson, 2016: Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2. Tellus A, 68, 31494, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.31494. Open access, link goes to full text.
  • Nie, Shaevitz, and Sobel, 2016: Forcings and feedbacks on convection in the 2010 Pakistan flood: Modeling extreme precipitation with interactive large-scale ascent. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8, 1055-1072, DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000663.Open access, link goes to full text.
  • Lee, Tippett, Sobel, and Camargo, 2016a: Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity Nature Communications, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms10625. Open access, link goes to full text.
  • Sobel, Camargo, and Barnston, 2016: Northern hemisphere tropical cyclones during the quasi-El Niño of late 2014. Natural Hazards, doi:10.1007/s11069-016-2389-7. PDF file
  • Lee, Tippett, Sobel, and Camargo, 2016b: Auto-regressive modeling for tropical cyclone intensity climatology. Journal of Climate, 29, 7815-7830. PDF file.
  • Wing, Camargo, and Sobel, 2016: Role of radiative-convective feedbacks in spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in idealized numerical simulations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73, 2633-2642. PDF file.
  • Daleu, Woolnough, Plant, Sessions, Herman, Sobel, Wang, Kim, Cheng, Bellon, Peyrille, Ferry, Siebesma, and van Ulft, 2016: Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. Part II: Comparison over non-uniform surface conditions. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 8, 387-405, DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000570. PDF file.
  • Wang, Sobel, and Nie, 2016: Modeling the MJO in a cloud-resolving model with parameterized large-scale dynamics: vertical structure, radiation, and horizontal advection of dry air. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000529. PDF file.
  • Nie and Sobel, 2016: Modeling the interaction between quasi-geostrophic vertical motion and convection in a single column. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73, 1101-1117. PDF file.
  • Anber, Wang, and Sobel, 2016: Response of atmospheric convection to vertical wind shear: Cloud resolving simulations with parameterized large-scale circulation. Part II: Effect of interactive radiation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 73, 199-209. PDF file.
  • Walsh and many coauthors, 2016: Tropical cyclones and climate change. WIREs Climate Change, 7, 65-89, DOI: 10.1002/wcc.371.

    2015

  • Anber, Gentine, Wang, and Sobel, 2015: Fog and rain in the Amazon. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1505077112.
  • Daleu, Woolnough, Plant, Sessions, Herman, Sobel, Wang, Kim, Cheng, Bellon, Peyrille, Ferry, Siebesma, and van Ulft, 2015: Intercomparison of methods of coupling between convection and large-scale circulation. Part I: Comparison over uniform surface conditions. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 7, doi:10.1002/2015MS000468. Full text.
  • Bony, Stevens, Frierson, Jakob, Kageyama, Pincus, Shepherd, Sherwood, Siebesma, Sobel, Watanabe, and Webb, 2015: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity. Nature Geoscience, 8, 261-268. Full text.
  • Wang, Fridlind, Sobel, Feng, Comstock, Minnis, and Nordeen, 2015: Simulations of cloud-radiation interaction using large-scale forcing derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO northern sounding array. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000461. PDF file.
  • Dwyer, Camargo, Sobel, Biasutti, Emanuel, Vecchi, Zhao, and Tippett, 2015: Projected 21st century changes in the length of the tropical cyclone season. Journal of Climate, 28, 6181-6192. PDF file.
  • Allen, Tippett, and Sobel, 2015: Influence of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation on tornado and hail frequency in the United States. Nature Geoscience, 8, 278-283.
  • Yokoi and Sobel, 2015: Seasonal march and intraseasonal variability of the moist static energy budget over the eastern Maritime Continent during CINDY2011/DYNAMO. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, in press, doi:10.2151/jmsj.2015-041. PDF file.
  • Nie and Sobel, 2015: Responses of tropical deep convection to the QBO: cloud-resolving simulations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72, 3625-3638. PDF file.
  • Walsh and many coauthors (incl. Sobel), 2015: Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, 997-1017. PDF file.
  • Anber, Wang, and Sobel, 2015a: Effect of surface fluxes versus radiative heating on tropical deep convection. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72, 3378-3388. PDF file.
  • Lee, Tippett, Camargo, and Sobel, 2015: Probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone intensity from a multiple-linear regression model. Monthly Weather Review, 143, 933-954. PDF file.
  • Wang, Sobel, Zhang, Sun, Yue, and Zhou, 2015: Regional simulation of the October and November MJO events observed during the CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign at gray zone resolution. Journal of Climate, 28, 2097-2119. PDF file.
  • Allen, Tippett, and Sobel, 2015: An empirical model relating U.S. monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 7, doi:10.1002/2014MS000397. full text.

    2014

  • Shaevitz, Camargo, Sobel, and coauthors, 2014: Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high-resolution models in the present climate. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000372. PDF file.
  • Rochetin, Lintner, Findell, Sobel, and Gentine, 2014: Radiative-convective equilibrium over a land surface. Journal of Climate, 23, 8611-8629. PDF file.
  • Sobel, Wang, and Kim, 2014: Moist static energy budget of the MJO during DYNAMO. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71, 4276-4291. PDF file.
  • Wang, Camargo, Sobel and Polvani 2014: Impact of the tropopause temperature on the intensity of tropical cyclones --- an idealized study using a mesoscale model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71, 4333-4348. PDF file.
  • Anber, Wang, and Sobel, 2014: Response of atmospheric convection to vertical wind shear: cloud resolving simulations with parameterized large-scale circulation. Part I: Specified radiative cooling. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71, 2976-2993. PDF file.
  • Benedict, Maloney, Sobel, and Frierson, 2014: Gross moist stability and MJO simulation skill in three full-physics GCMs. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 71, 3327-3349. PDF file.
  • Camargo, Tippett, Sobel, Vecchi, and Zhao, 2014: Testing the performance of tropical cyclone genesis indices in future climates using the HIRAM model. Journal of Climate, 27, 9171-9196. PDF file.
  • Tippett, Sobel, Camargo, and Allen, 2014: An empirical relation between U.S. tornado activity and monthly environmental parameters. Journal of Climate, 27, 2983-2999. PDF file.
  • Dwyer, Biasutti, and Sobel 2014: The effect of greenhouse-gas-induced changes in SST on the seasonality of tropical precipitation. Journal of Climate, 27, 4544-4565. PDF file.
  • Zhu, Wheeler, Sobel, and Hudson, 2014: Seamless precipitation prediction skill in the tropics and extratropics from a global model. Monthly Weather Review, 142, 1556-1569. PDF file
  • Kim, Kug, and Sobel, 2014: Propagating vs. non-propagating Madden-Julian oscillation events, Journal of Climate, 27, 111-125. PDF file.

    2013

  • Barnes, Polvani, and Sobel, 2013: Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:10.1073/pnas.1308732110.
  • Emanuel and Sobel 2013: Response of tropical sea surface temperature, precipitation, and tropical cyclone-related variables to changes in global and local forcing. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 1-12. DOI: 10.1002/jame.20032. PDF file.
  • Hall and Sobel, 2013: The impact angle of hurricane Sandy's New Jersey landfall. Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50395. PDF file.
  • Auffhammer, Hsiang, Schlenker, and Sobel 2013: Using weather data and climate model output in economic analyses of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, doi: 10.1093/reep/ret016. PDF file
  • Wang, Sobel, and Kuang 2013: Cloud-resolving simulation of TOGA COARE using parameterized large-scale dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research, DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50510. PDF file. Summary article, editor's highlight.
  • Tandon, Gerber, Sobel, and Polvani, 2013: Understanding Hadley cell expansion vs. contraction: Insights from simplified models and implications for recent observations. Journal of Climate, 26, 4304-4321. PDF file.
  • Sobel and Maloney, 2013: Moisture modes and the eastward propagation of the MJO. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 70, 187-192. PDF file.
  • Lintner, Gentine, Findell, D'Andrea, Sobel, and Salvucci, 2013: An idealized prototype for large-scale land-atmosphere coupling. Journal of Climate, 26, 2379-2389. PDF file.
  • Benedict, Maloney, Sobel, Frierson, and Donner, 2013: Tropical intraseasonal variability in version 3 of the GFDL atmosphere model. Journal of Climate, 26, 426-449. PDF file.

    2012

  • Sobel and Kim, 2012: The MJO-Kelvin wave transition. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L20808, doi:10.1029/2012GL053380. PDF file.
  • Lintner, Bellon, Sobel, Kim, and Neelin, 2012: Implementation of the Quasi-equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model 2 (QTCM2): Global simulations and convection sensitivity to free tropospheric moisture. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 4, M12002. doi:10.1029/2012MS000174. PDF file.
  • Field, Risi, Schmidt, Worden, Voulgarakis, LeGrande, Sobel, and Healy, 2012: A Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer HDO/H2O retrieval simulator for climate models. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, 10485-10504. PDF file.
  • Sobel 2012: Tropical weather (link goes to online article). Nature Education Knowledge, 3(10):2.
  • Dwyer, Biasutti, and Sobel 2012: Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature. Journal of Climate, 25, 6359-6374. PDF file.
  • Tippett, Sobel, and Camargo 2012: Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L02801, doi:10.1029/2011GL050368. PDF file.
  • Wang and Sobel 2012: Impact of imposed drying on deep convection in a cloud-resolving model. Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D2, doi:10.1029/2011JD016847. PDF file.
  • Kim, Sobel, Del Genio, Chen, Camargo , Yao, Kelley, and Nazarenko, 2012: The tropical subseasonal variability simulated in the NASA GISS general circulation model. Journal of Climate, 25, 4641-4659. PDF file.
  • Zhou, Sobel, and Murtugudde, 2012: Kinetic energy budget for the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a multi-scale framework. Journal of Climate, 25, 5386-5403. PDF file.
  • Zhu and Sobel, 2012: Comparison of a single column model in weak temperature gradient mode to its parent AGCM. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 138, 1025-1034. PDF file.
  • Sobel and Maloney, 2012: An idealized semi-empirical framework for modeling the Madden-Julian oscillation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 69, 1691-1705. PDF file.
  • Biasutti, Burleyson, Yuter, and Sobel, 2012: Very high resolution rainfall patterns measured by TRMM precipitation radar: Seasonal and diurnal cycles. Climate Dynamics, 39, 239-258. PDF file.
  • Biasutti, Sobel, Camargo, and Creyts, 2012: Projected changes in the physical climate of the Gulf coast and Caribbean. Climatic Change, 112, 819-845. PDF file.

    2011

  • Kim, Sobel, and Kang, 2011: A mechanism denial study on the Madden-Julian oscillation. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 3, M12007, DOI:10.1029/2011MS000081. PDF file.
  • Wang and Sobel 2011: Response of convection to relative sea surface temperature: cloud-resolving simulations in two and three dimensions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D11119, doi:10.1029/2010JD015347. PDF file
  • Kim, Sobel, Maloney, Frierson, and Kang, 2011: A systematic relationship between intraseasonal variability and mean state bias in AGCM simulations. Journal of Climate, 24, 5506-5520. PDF file.
  • Sobel, Burleyson, and Yuter 2011: Rain on small tropical islands . Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, D08102, doi:10.1029/2010JD014695. PDF file. There is also the PDF file for the Correction published 2013, and the Supplemental figures for the correction.
  • Tippett, Camargo and Sobel 2011: A Poisson regression index for tropical cyclone genesis and the role of large-scale vorticity in genesis. Journal of Climate, 24, 2335-2357. PDF file.
  • Sobel and Camargo 2011: Projected future changes in tropical summer climate. Journal of Climate, 24, 473-487. PDF file.
  • Ramsay and Sobel 2011: The effects of relative and absolute sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone potential intensity using a single column model. Journal of Climate, 24, 183-193. PDF file.

    2010

  • Camargo and Sobel 2010: Revisiting the influence of the quasi-biennial oscillation on tropical cyclone activity Journal of Climate, 23, 5810-5825. PDF file.
  • Bellon and Sobel 2010: Multiple equilibria of the Hadley circulation in an intermediate-complexity axisymmetric model Journal of Climate, 23, 1760-1778. PDF file.
  • Maloney, Sobel, and Hannah 2010: Intraseasonal variability in an aquaplanet general circulation model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2, doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.5.
  • Krouse and Sobel 2010: An observational study of multiple tropical cyclone events in the western north Pacific. Tellus, 62A, 256-265. PDF file
  • Wright, Sobel, and Galewsky, 2010: Diagnosis of zonal mean relative humidity changes in a warmer climate. Journal of Climate, 23, 4556-4570. PDF file.
  • Sobel, Maloney, Bellon and Frierson, 2010: Surface fluxes and tropical intraseasonal variability: a reassessment. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 2, doi:10.3894/JAMES.2010.2.2.
  • Sessions, Sugaya, Raymond, and Sobel, 2010: Multiple equilibria in a cloud-resolving model . Journal of Geophysical Research, 115,D12110, doi:10.1029/2009JD013376. PDF file of main text; supplement (also PDF).

    2009

  • Biasutti and Sobel, 2009: Delayed Sahel rainfall and global seasonal cycle in a warmer climate Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2009GL041303. PDF file.
  • Sobel and Schneider 2009: Single-layer axisymmetric model for a Hadley circulation with parameterized eddy momentum forcing. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 1, doi:10.3894/JAMES.2009.1.10.
  • Raymond, Sessions, Sobel, and Fuchs, 2009: The mechanics of gross moist stability Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 1, doi:10.3894/JAMES.2009.1.9.
  • Wright, Sobel, and Schmidt 2009: The influence of condensate evaporation on water vapor and its stable isotopes in a GCM Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L12804, doi:10.1029/2009GL038091. PDF file.
  • Camargo, Wheeler, and Sobel 2009: Diagnosis of the MJO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis using an empirical index Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 66, 3061-3074. PDF file.
  • Biasutti, Sobel, and Camargo 2009: The role of the Sahara low in Sahel rainfall variability and change in the CMIP3 models. Journal of Climate, 22, 5755-5771. PDF file.
  • Sobel and Bellon 2009: The effect of imposed drying on parameterized deep convection, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 66, 2085-2096. PDF file.

    2008

  • Sobel, Maloney, Bellon and Frierson, 2008: The role of surface fluxes in tropical intraseasonal oscillations. Nature Geoscience, 1, 653-657.
  • Bellon, Sobel, and Vialard 2008: Ocean-atmosphere coupling in the monsoon intraseasonal oscillation: a simple model study. Journal of Climate, 21, 5254-5270. PDF file
  • Holder, Yuter, Sobel, and Aiyyer 2008: The mesoscale characteristics of tropical oceanic precipitation during Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity wave events. Monthly Weather Review, 136, 3446-3464. PDF file
  • Bellon and Sobel 2008b: Instability of the axisymmetric monsoon flow and intraseasonal oscillation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, D07109, doi:10.1029/2007JD008968. PDF file
  • Biasutti, Held, Sobel, and Giannini 2008: SST forcings and Sahel rainfall variability in simulations of the 20th and 21st centuries. Journal of Climate, 21, 3471-3486. PDF file
  • Krouse, Sobel, and Polvani 2008: On the wavelength of the Rossby waves radiated by tropical cyclones. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65, 644-654. PDF file.
  • Bellon and Sobel 2008a: Poleward-propagating intraseasonal monsoon disturbances in an intermediate-complexity axisymmetric model. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 65, 470-489. PDF file
  • Giannini, Biasutti, Held, and Sobel 2008: A global perspective on African climate. Climatic Change, DOI 10.1007/s10584-008-9396-y. PDF file

    2007

  • Sobel, Bellon and Bacmeister 2007: Multiple equilibria in a single-column model of the tropical atmosphere. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L22804, doi:10.1029/2007GL031320. PDF file.
  • Wing, Sobel, and Camargo 2007: The relationship between the potential and actual intensities of tropical cyclones on interannual time scales. Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L08810, doi:10.1029/2006GL028581. PDF file
  • Camargo, Sobel, Barnston, and Emanuel 2007: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus, 59A, 428-443. PDF file
  • Camargo, Emanuel, and Sobel 2007: Use of a genesis potential index to diagnose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. Journal of Climate, 20, 4819-4834. PDF file
  • Herceg, Sobel, and Sun 2007: Regional modeling of decadal rainfall variability over the Sahel. Climate Dynamics, 29, 89-99. PDF file
  • Maloney and Sobel 2007: Idealized hot spot experiments with a general circulation model. Journal of Climate, 20, 908-925. PDF file

    2006

  • Swann, Sobel, Yuter, and Kiladis 2006: Observed radar reflectivity in convectively coupled Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:10.1029/2006LG025979. PDF file
  • Galewsky, Stark, Dadson, Wu, Sobel, and Horng 2006: Tropical cyclone triggering of sediment discharge in Taiwan. Journal of Geophysical Research (Earth Surface), 111, F03014, doi:10.1029/2005JF000428. PDF file
  • Sobel and Neelin 2006: The boundary layer contribution to intertropical convergence zones in the quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model framework. Theoretical and Computational Fluid Dynamics, 20, 323-350. Pdf file
  • Burns, Sobel, and Polvani 2006: Asymptotic solutions of the moist axisymmetric Hadley circulation in a model with two vertical modes. Theoretical and Computational Fluid Dynamics, 20, 443-467. PDF file
  • Zhou and Sobel 2006: Nonlinear shallow water solutions using the weak temperature gradient approximation. Theoretical and Computational Fluid Dynamics, 20, 469-484. PDF file
  • Biasutti, Sobel, and Kushnir 2006: GCM precipitation biases in the tropical Atlantic. Journal of Climate, 19, 935-958. PDF file
  • Herceg, Sobel, Sun, and Zebiak 2006: The big brother experiment and seasonal predictability in the NCEP Regional Spectral Model. Climate Dynamics, 27, 69-82. PDF file

    2005

  • Sobel and Camargo 2005: Influence of western north Pacific tropical cyclones on their large-scale environment. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62, 3396-3407. PDF file
  • Camargo and Sobel 2005: Western north Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and ENSO. Journal of Climate, 18, 2996-3006. PDF file
  • Galewsky and Sobel 2005: Moist dynamics and orographic precipitation in Northern California during the New Year's flood of 1997. Monthly Weather Review, 133, 1594-1612. PDF file
  • Galewsky, Sobel, and Held 2005: Diagnosis of subtropical humidity dynamics using tracers of last saturation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62, 3353-3367. PDF file
  • Gu, Adler, and Sobel 2005: The eastern Pacific ITCZ during the boreal spring. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 62, 1157-1174. PDF file

    2004

  • Maloney and Sobel 2004: Surface fluxes and ocean coupling in the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Journal of Climate, 17, 4368-4386. PDF file
  • Shaevitz and Sobel 2004: Implementing the weak temperature gradient approximation with full vertical structure. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 662-669. PDF file
  • Camargo and Sobel 2004: Formation of tropical storms in an atmospheric general circulation model. Tellus, 56A, 56-67. PDF file
  • Sobel, Yuter, Bretherton, and Kiladis 2004: Large-scale meteorology and deep convection during TRMM KWAJEX. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 422-444. PDF file

    2003

  • Sobel and Gildor 2003: A simple time-dependent model of SST hot spots. Journal of Climate, 16, 3978-3992. PDF file
  • Gildor, Sobel, Cane , and Sambrotto 2003: A role for ocean biota in tropical intraseasonal atmospheric variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(9), 1460, doi:10.1029/2002GL016759. PDF file corrigendum
  • Sobel 2003: On the coexistence of an evaporation minimum and precipitation maximum in the warm pool. Journal of Climate, 16, 1003-1009. PDF file
  • Bretherton and Sobel 2003: The Gill model and the weak temperature gradient approximation . Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 60, 451-460. PDF file
  • Sobel and Bretherton 2003: Large-scale waves interacting with deep convection in idealized mesoscale model simulations. Tellus, 55A, 45-60. PDF file

    2002

  • Sobel 2002: Water vapor as an active scalar in tropical atmospheric dynamics Chaos, 12, 451-459. PDF file
  • Bretherton and Sobel 2002: A simple model of a convectively-coupled Walker circulation using the weak temperature gradient approximation. Journal of Climate, 15, 2907-2920. PDF file
  • Chiang and Sobel 2002: Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate. Journal of Climate, 15, 2616-2631. PDF file
  • Sobel, Held, and Bretherton 2002: The ENSO signal in tropical tropospheric temperature Journal of Climate, 15, 2702-2706. PDF file
  • Polvani and Sobel 2002: The Hadley circulation and the weak temperature gradient approximation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 59, 1744-1752. PDF file

    2001


  • Sobel, Nilsson and Polvani 2001: The weak temperature gradient approximation and balanced tropical moisture waves. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 58, 3650-3665. PDF file

    2000

  • Sobel and Bretherton 2000: Modeling tropical precipitation in a single column. Journal of Climate, 13, 4378-4392. PDF file
    Correction to Sobel and Bretherton 2000 (there's a wrong equation, doesn't affect the results but makes it confusing to read one section).
  • Sobel and Maloney 2000: Effect of ENSO and the MJO on western north Pacific tropical cyclones. Geophysical Research Letters, 27, 1739-1742. PDF file
  • Sobel and Flierl 2000: Cross-channel advective-diffusive transport by a monochromatic traveling wave. Physics of Fluids, 12, 1377-1381. PDF file
  • Sobel and Horinouchi 2000: On the dynamics of easterly waves, monsoon depressions, and tropical depression type disturbances. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 78, 167-173. PDF file
  • Gettelman and Sobel 2000: Direct diagnoses of stratosphere-troposphere exchange. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 57, 3-16. PDF file

    Before 2000

  • Sobel and Bretherton 1999: Development of synoptic-scale disturbances over the summertime tropical northwest Pacific. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 56, 3106-3127. PDF file
  • Sobel 1999: Diffusion vs. nonlocal models of stratospheric mixing, in theory and practice. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 56, 2571-2584. PDF file
  • Sobel and Plumb 1999: Quantitative diagnostics of mixing in a shallow-water model of the stratosphere. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 56, 2811-2829. PDF file
  • Sobel, Plumb and Waugh 1997: Methods of computing transport across the polar vortex edge. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 54, 2241-2260. PDF file
  • Goody and Sobel 1996: A graduate radiation course based upon numerical methods. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77, 2919-2924.PDF file

    Book chapters

  • Adames, Kim, Maloney, and Sobel, 2021: The moisture mode framework of the Madden-Julian oscillation. The Multiscale Global Monsoon System, C. P. Chang, Ed., pp. 273-287, https://doi.org/10.1142/9789811216602_0022.
  • Sobel and Tippett, 2018: Extreme events: trends and risk assessment methodologies. Resilience: The Science of Adaptation to Climate Change. K. Alverson and Z. Zommers, Eds., Elsevier. 3-12. PDF file.
  • Orff and Sobel 2016: Next-century collaboration between design and climate science. Climates: Architecture and the Planetary Imaginary. J. Graham, Ed., Columbia. 164-170. PDF file.
  • Sobel 2010: R. Alan Plumb: A brief biographical sketch, and personal tribute. The Stratosphere: Dynamics, Transport, and Chemistry, AGU, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 190, L. M. Polvani, D. W. Waugh, A. H. Sobel, Eds. (Not peer reviewed, though the rest of the book is.) PDF file
  • Sobel 2010: Going to extremes. Climate Change: Picturing the Science, G. Schmidt and J. Wolfe, Eds., Norton. (Popular science, not peer reviewed.)
  • Camargo, Sobel, Barnston, and Klotzbach 2010: The influence of natural climate variability, and seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity. Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones, 2nd edition, J. C. L. Chan and J. D. Kepert, Eds., World Scientific, 325-360.
  • Sobel 2007: Simple models of ensemble-averaged precipitation and surface wind, given the SST. The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, T. Schneider and A. H. Sobel, Eds., Princeton University Press. PDF file
  • Sobel, Bretherton, Gildor, and Peters 2004: Convection, cloud-radiative feedbacks and thermodynamic ocean coupling in simple models of the Walker circulation. Earth's Climate: The Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction, C. Wang S.-P. Xie, and J. A. Carton, Eds., American Geophysical Union Geophysical Monograph 147, 393-405. PDF file (Book available from AGU)


    Edited Books

  • Polvani, Waugh, and Sobel, Eds., 2010: The Stratosphere: Dynamics, Transport, and Chemistry, AGU, Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 190, 220pp.
  • Schneider and Sobel, Eds., 2007: The Global Circulation of the Atmosphere, Princeton University Press, 400pp.


    Meeting summaries, etc.

  • Coen and Sobel, 2022: Introduction: Critical and historical perspectives on usable climate science. Climatic Change, 172, 15, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03369-0.
  • Robertson, Camargo, Sobel, Vitart, and Wang, 2018: Summary of workshop on sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability of extreme weather and climate. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 1, doi:10.1038/s41612-017-0009-1.
  • Sobel, Camargo, Debucquoy, Deodatis, Gerrard, Hall, Hallman, Keenan, Lall, Levy, Orlove, Rosenzweig, Seager, Shaman, and Tippett, 2016: Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report. Journal of Extreme Events, 3, DOI: 10.1142/S2345737616710019. PDF file.
  • Allen, Tippett, Sobel, and Lepore, 2016: Understanding the drivers of variability in severe convection: Bringing together the scientific and insurance communities. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0208.1. PDF file. EOS, 88, (29), 295. PDF file
  • Biasutti, Giannini, Sobel, Held, and Chiang 2007: Sahel climate change. EOS, 88, (29), 295. PDF file
  • Camargo and Sobel 2007: Workshop on tropical cyclones and climate. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 389-391. PDF file
  • Schneider and Sobel 2006: Global circulation of the atmosphere (2004). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87, 807-809. PDF file