Arvind Panagariya: The revival of optimism
Abstract:
It is no exaggeration to say that the defining event of 2014 was the emergence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi as India's most popular leader. In April 2012, Fareed Zakaria of CNN had predicted that the December 2012 Gujarat election would spell oblivion for Mr Modi. But exactly the opposite unfolded - it propelled him into national prominence. By the dawn of 2014, his stature had grown sufficiently for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to name him its prime ministerial candidate in the May 2014 parliamentary elections.
But few commentators were still willing to grant Mr Modi an election victory that would propel him to the top office of the country. Unable to digest the decisive victory the BJP had scored in December 2013 state elections, the bulk of the media went to work to build Arvind Kejriwal of the Aam Aadmi Party into a national leader on the back of his rather modest victory in Delhi. Victims of wishful thinking, many also routinely produced analyses showing how a fractured BJP mandate would force Mr Modi to step aside in favour of a candidate more acceptable to more moderate potential coalition partners.
But Mr Modi went on to wage what will perhaps remain one of the most effective and innovative election campaigns in history. He criss-crossed the country many times over, clocking 300,000 kilometres to address 550 packed rallies in person. This was topped by speeches via instant three-D image transmission to groups of citizens in 1,300 locations and "chats over tea" through video conferencing with citizens at 4,000 sites. The result was the first ever absolute majority in the Lok Sabha in Indian history for a party other than the Congress.