TOI2016 (2)

Miracle Growth Will Return: The Modi government has been battling a flawed inheritance in its first two years

Read full article Abstract: With the second anniversary of the government round the corner, assessments of its performance will begin soon. Such assessments need to take into account the baseline at which this government began. Any progress must be judged against this baseline. In May 2004, when the first National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government lost the election, it handed to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) an economy that had grown 8.1% during the preceding full year. The UPA ruled till May 2014, returning to NDA an economy that had grown just 5% during its last full year (the new GDP series subsequently revised this growth rate to 6.9%). Under UPA-I, which ruled from 2004 to 2009, GDP growth averaged 8.4%. While this was an impressive performance, there is no satisfactory answer to the question what UPA-I did to make it happen. You can carefully scan Budget speeches and other relevant documents of UPA-I but, beyond continuation of trade liberalisation and trimming of the small-scale industries reservation list, you would find references to few reforms to which this performance can be…

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