November 24, 2009

Climate Change: getting it Right

Specious ideas about climate change are occupying public policy space.

Abstract:

According to Gresham’s Law, bad money drives out good. In debate on complex policy issues, ideas sometimes suffer the same fate as money. The debate on climate change offers a good example. Many specious ideas have come to occupy public policy space. These must be exposed and clarity restored, as done below.

Idea 1

Meaningful mitigation is not possible without China and India accepting mitigation obligations. The US Congress has adopted this position and many commentators based in Europe and the US embrace it. Two arguments are offered in its support.

First, China and India are such large emitters that without their participation, mitigation effort will fall short of the necessary. Second, unless these countries accept emission caps, developed-country carbon-intensive industries will simply migrate to them with no net reductions in emissions.

The fallacy in the first argument is that India is a small emitter and not in the same league as China. Whereas the latter accounts for 21% of global emissions, India’s share is only 4%. In per-capita terms, India ranks a low 137th.