Expect Modi to repeat 2014 victory: BJP has got its act together while opposition is splintered and wholly unprepared
I have maintained, since well before the Balakot airstrikes, that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will repeat his 2014 election victory in 2019. This conviction is rooted in many factors.
The first factor is Modi himself. No matter what some Delhi-centric journalists and intellectuals might say, he remains personally intensely popular with people. Through regular radio broadcasts, social media interactions, and personal appearances at hundreds of functions and rallies each year, he has successfully conveyed to the average Indian that he is sincere, hardworking and decisive. Many may have specific complaints about unfulfilled promises. But few doubt his unwavering commitment to the nation and its people.
The second factor is Modi’s enormous energy and ability to communicate with the masses. These attributes make him one of the most effective election campaigners in India’s post-Independence history. During the 2014 campaign, he crisscrossed 3,00,000 km to address hundreds of rallies in person. Five years later, his energy is undiminished. With 150 rallies already planned and more in the works, he is poised to convert the election into a presidential-style contest once again.
The third key factor working in favour of Modi is the alliance strategy of the Bharatiya Janata Party . There can be no doubt that BJP has learnt from its mistakes in 2004. In the run up to that election, it had shot itself in the foot by alienating some key allies. Letting DMK defect and join the opposition alone cost it 14 seats in Parliament. This time around, BJP has recognised the importance of alliance partners and bent backwards to accommodate old allies and nurture new ones.