December 30, 2009

Prime Minister’s Copenhagen Gamble

By committing a 20% reduction in emission intensity while the west is making negligible effort, India may have compromised its interest.

It is difficult to avoid speculating that in approaching the Copenhagen negotiations, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh accorded as high a priority to winning the admiration of US President Barack Obama as to cutting a deal that would best serve India’s interests. While the former objective was achieved, the same cannot be said of the latter.

Begin by considering three facts relevant to India’s interests. First, with 400 million Indians without electricity and 300 million in abject poverty, India’s top priority has to be sustained rapid growth that would eliminate poverty and bring electricity to all in another decade or two. Without that, even absent any further global warming, millions of Indians will continue to be victims of cold waves, droughts, floods and cyclones.

Second, while it is feasible to achieve small reductions in carbon emissions at low or no cost, at the current level of technological development, significant reductions would require substantial cuts in energy consumption. This would entail leaving millions of Indians without electricity and compromise growth.