Drop the trade diffidence: Why we need not fear bilateral trade deficits when negotiating free trade agreements like RCEP
Read full article Abstract: Deep down, perhaps the most important factor that concerned Indian negotiators of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) was the threat of competition from China. India has a large existing bilateral trade deficit with China and it was feared that opening to it under RCEP would widen this deficit yet further. A related concern was that an avalanche of new Chinese goods would hit Indian markets, undermining its manufacturing sector and Make in India programme. Examine first the issue of bilateral trade deficit. Setting politics aside for the moment, as long as a country’s trade in goods and services is balanced in aggregate, economic logic tells us that bilateral deficits and surpluses should not be a matter of concern. There are nearly 200 countries in the world and each of them strives to buy its imports from countries that charge it the lowest prices and sell its exports to countries that offer it the highest prices. It will be a wonder if these myriad transactions result in mutually balanced trade for each pair of countries. To understand the…
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