View: Why Arvind Subramanian's GDP over-estimation argument is flawed
Subramanian made the dramatic claim that the real GDP in India grew between 3.5% and 5.5% during 2011-17.
In a recent working paper, former chief economic adviser in the ministry of finance Arvind Subramanian made the dramatic claim that the real gross domestic product (GDP) in India grew at a rate between 3.5% and 5.5% during 2011-12 to 2016-17.
A number of critiques exposing myriad flaws of the paper have already appeared. They notably include contributions by Swaminathan Aiyar, Surjit Bhalla, Bibek Debroy, Charan Singh, and the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC).
Subramanian’s analysis is so problem-ridden, and its claim so far-fetched, that there are only two possible explanations for why he wrote it. One, he blundered — he simply did not realise the innumerable methodological problems afflicting his analysis. Two, he was aware of the shortcomings, but chose to ignore them in the hope of creating a sensation and gaining the attention of the government, media and, possibly, the whole world