8:15-9:20 am

US Economy - an introduction

9:30-10:00 am

US-China Economic Relations

Coffee Break

International Banking and the Current Financial Crisis

8:15-9:20 am

The U.S. Macreconomy: Recent Developments and Policy Challenges

Dr. Andrea Bubula, Lecturer, Columbia University

This session examines and critically interprets recent macroeconomic events and policies in the United States. First, it briefly discusses the causes and the effects of the financial crisis; second, it focuses on the current macroeconomic conditions, with a particular focus on the present policy debate on the trade-off between fiscal consolidation and job creation.

Suggested Readings

Andrew Abel, Ben Bernanke, Dean Croushore, The Measurement and Structure of the National Economy, Chapter 2 of Macroeconomics, 8th edition, Pearson (any alternative review of national accounting would equivalently work)

Christina Romer, Back to a Better Normal: Unemployment and Growth in the Wake of the Great Recession, Speech at Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, April 17, 2010 (White House link)

Robert Barro, How to Really Save the Economy, The New York Times, September 10, 2011

Ben S. Bernanke, The U.S. Economic Outlook, Speech At the Economic Club of Minnesota Luncheon,
Minneapolis, Minnesota, September 8, 2011

Gregory Mankiw, How to Make Business Want to Invest More, The New York Times, September 10 2011

Jeffrey Sachs, A Real Jobs Program

Additional Readings

Ben Bernanke, Emerging from the Crisis: Where Do We Stand? Speech At the Sixth European Central Bank Central Banking Conference, Frankfurt, Germany, November 19, 2010

Martin Neil Baily, Robert E. Litan, and Matthew S. Johnson: The Origins of the Financial Crisis The Brookings Institution

Olivier Blanchard, Giovanni Dell’Ariccia, and Paolo Mauro, Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy IMF STAFF POSITION NOTE, February 12, 2010

Michael Cragg and Joseph Stiglitz, Should the Government Invest, or Try to Spur Private Investment? The Economists’ Voice, April 2011

Bradford Delong, Pain without Purpose, Economists’ Voice, March 2011

Barry Eichengreen, Robert Feldman, Jeff Liebman, Jürgen von Hagen and Charles Wyplosz (2011) Public Debts: Nuts, Bolts and Worries. Centre for Economic Policy Research and International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, September.  Pp. 7- 45 and 98-101

Till von Wachter, Testimony before the Budget Committee, “Challenges for the U.S. Economic Recovery”,February 3rd 2011

Viral Acharya, Thomas Cooley, Matthew Richardson and Ingo Walter, Dodd-Frank: One Year On, VoxEU.org eBook,

Robert B. Avery and Kenneth P. Brevoort, The Subprime Crisis: Is Government Housing Policy to Blame? Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

Markus K. Brunnermeier , Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007–2008, Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 23, Number 1—Winter 2009—Pages 77–100

Paul Krugman, How Did Economists Get It So Wrong? The New York Times, September 2, 2009

9:30-10:00 am

US-China Economics Relations: Chinese direct investment in the US, the most significant new topic of policy debate in the bilateral relationship

Dan Rosen, Adjunct Associate Professor, Columbia University; Partner, Rhodium Group

Until mid-2011, both American and Chinese officials believed that Chinese direct investment in the United States was stagnant, and curtailed by national security concerns. By contrast, new analysis has shown that such investment flows are growing over 100% in recent years. As the new pattern of Chinese investment comes into focus it is affecting bilateral relations, breaking down preconceived notions about policy and economic capabilities, and pointing to great potential for new business creation and engagement. It also presents concerns and risks.

Suggested readings

Rosen and Hanemann, An American Open Door: Maximizing the Benefits of Chinese Foreign Direct Investment; Asia Society, May 2011

China Investment Monitor 1Q2011 and 2Q2011 Updates, Rhodium Group, 2011

Thilo Hanemann, Chinese FDI in the United States and Europe: Implications and Opportunities for Transatlantic Cooperation, Stockholm China Forum Paper Series, June 2011

Presentation

10:00-10:15 am Coffee Break

10:15-11:30 am

The U.S. Political Landscape and Partisan Conflict

Prof. Robert Shapiro, Political Science Department, Columbia University

With the approach of the 2012 election, partisan conflict in the United States has reached a level not observed in more than half a century. This session will review the history of this in which the country moved into an era in which the Democratic and Republican parties have become closely matched electorally as they seek control of the both the presidency and Congress, and more important, in which the parties have become increasingly polarized along ideological lines. Specifically, since the 1970s the Republican party has become a more consistently conservative party, and the Democratic party are more consistently liberal one across the full spectrum of policy issues—from economic welfare and “big government” issues, including a wide range of environmental and other regulations; to race and civil rights more broadly; religious or cultural values issues, such as abortion and gay rights; immigration; and national security and foreign policy. As a result, the left-right ideological differences between parties, both at the level of political leadership and also more recently at the level of mass public opinion, have become extraordinary in post World War II America, and they have produced a degree of conflict that has made bipartisan cooperation difficult in attempting to solve the nation’s most urgent problems.

In the last decade both Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama promised to reverse this trend: Bush by being a “uniter, not a divider,” and Obama by being the President not of “red or blues states, but the United States”. Neither of them succeeded. After the September 11th attacks, the Bush’s presidency extended partisan conflict to foreign policy and national security issues in going to war in Iraq. While there was a brief moment during the 2008 primary election period when both parties arguably selected their most moderate presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama, the final campaign demonstrated no change in the ongoing level of partisan conflict. Moreover, while it seemed that this conflict could not get further polarized, it has appeared to have reached new heights during the three years that Obama has been in office—with no end in sight and little likelihood (as of this writing on September 18, 2011) of political compromises to deal with the nation’s problems. There is even some sense now that the Republicans and Democrats perceive social, economic, and political realities in different ways—as if they live, so to speak, in different worlds. This session will conclude by considering what might be done to change this state of American politics, and by reviewing the latest developments in the politics of the 2012 elections.

Suggested Readings

Abramowitz, Alan I., The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization,& American Democracy, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2010

Bafumi, Joseph, and Robert Y. Shapiro, A New Partisan Voter, The Journal of Politics 71, January 2009

Carsey, Thomas M., and Geoffrey C. Layman, Changing Sides or Changing Minds? Party Identification and Policy Preferences in the American Electorate, American Journal of Political Science 50, April 2006

Fiorina, Morris P., with Samuel J. Abrams and Jeremy C. Pope, Culture Wars? The Myth of Polarized America, Second edition. New York: Pearson Longman, 2006

Jacobson, Gary C. 2008. A Divider, Not a Uniter: George W. Bush and the American People. New York: Pearson/Longman.

Layman, Geoffrey C., Thomas M. Carsey, John C. Green, Richard Herrera, and Rosalyn Cooperman, Activists and Conflict Extension in American Party Politics, American Political Science Review 104, May 2010

Levendusky, Matthew. 2009. The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrat and Conservatives Republicans. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Book Review

Shapiro, Robert Y., and Yaeli Bloch-Elkon. “Foreign Policy, Meet the People.” The National Interest 97 (September/October 2008): 37-42.

Shapiro, Robert Y., and Yaeli Bloch-Elkon., Do the Facts Speak for Themselves? Partisan Disagreement as a Challenge to Democratic Competence, Critical Review 20, 2008

Snyder, Jack, Robert Y. Shapiro, and Yaeli Bloch-Elkon, Free Hand Abroad, Divide and Rule at Home, World Politics 61, January 2009

Additional Readings

Bartels, Larry M. 2008a. Unequal Democracy: The Political Economy of the New Guilded Age. New York: Russell Sage Foundation; Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Bello, Jason, and Robert Y. Shapiro. “On to the Convention!” Political Science Quarterly 123 (Spring 2008): 1-9.

Edwards, George C., III. 2009. The Strategic President: Persuasion & Opportunity in Presidential Leadership. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.

Fiorina, Morris P., with Samuel J. Abrams. 2009. Disconnect: The Breakdown of Representation in American Politics. Norman, Oklahoma: University of Oklahoma

Hacker, Jacob S., and Paul Pierson, Winner-Take-All Politics: How Washington Made the Rich Richer—And Turned Its Back on the Middle Class. New York: Simon & Schuster, 2010

Heatherington, Marc J., and Jonathan D. Weiler, Authoritarianism & Polarization in American Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009

Jacobs, Lawrence R. and Robert Y. Shapiro, Politicians Don’t Pander: Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2010

Layman Geoffrey C., Thomas M. Carsey, and Juliana Menasce Horowitz, Party Polarization in American politics: characteristics, causes, and consequences. Annual Review of Political Science 9: 83-110, 2010

Shapiro, Robert Y., and Lawrence R. Jacobs, The Democratic Paradox: The Waning of Popular Sovereignty and the Pathologies of American Politics, In Robert Y. Shapiro and Lawrence R. Jacobs, eds., The Oxford Handbook of American Public Opinion and the Media. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Pp.713-731, 2010

Wood, B. Dan, The Myth of Presidential Representation. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2009

11:45-1:15 pm

Lunch

with Prof. Steve Cohen, Executive Director of the Earth Institute

and Louise Rosen, Director of Office of Academic and Research Programs, Earth Institute, and Associate Director of the MPA Environmental Science and Policy program

Steve Cohen will address current sustainability management issues and provide a means to address them in any organization. He will show how a host of sustainability efforts, ranging from energy to waste management, can positively impact businesses, the global economy and the planet. Lastly, he will make the case that sustainability can foster long-term economic growth while ensuring the Earth remains a productive and viable planet for current and future generations.

Presentation

1:30-3:00 pm

US Regulatory Trends: Energy and Environmental Regulations

Prof. Michael B. Gerrard, Andrew Sabin Professor of Professional Practice, Director, Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law School

Status of U.S. climate regulation pertinent to electric power industry
            Congressional activity
            Clean Air Act programs
                        Massachusetts v. EPA
                        Endangerment finding
                        Stationary source regulations
                                    New Source Performance Standards
                                    Prevention of Significant Deterioration permitting
                                    Best Available Control Technology determinations
                        Political challenges
                        Legal challenges
            Other federal programs
                        Greenhouse gas reporting
                        National Environmental Policy Act
                        Securities and Exchange Commission
            State and regional programs
                        Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
                        California A.B. 32
                        Texas litigation

New and emerging U.S. environmental regulation pertinent to electric power industry
            Hazardous air pollutant/mercury regulations
            Transport Rule
            Ground-level ozone standards
            Cooling water regulations
            Coal ash regulations
            Sierra Club/Bloomberg initiative
            Carbon capture and sequestration

Recent Federal Energy Regulatory Commission initiatives
            Transmission planning and cost allocation
            Integration of renewables
            Demand response
            Smart grid

Legal issues regarding related energy sources
            Nuclear
            Shale gas extraction
            State renewable portfolio standards

Suggested Readings

Michael B. Gerrard and Cullen Howe, Global Climate Change Law: Legal Summary, 2011

Brooks Rainey Pearson and Jonas Monast, Primer on GHG Regulation under the Clean Air Act: NSPS Rulemaking Process, March 10, 2011

Additional Readings

Michael B. Gerrard, ed., Global Climate Change and  U.S. Law, American Bar Association, 2007

Michael B. Gerrard, ed., The Law of Clean Energy: Efficiency and Renewables, American Bar Association, 2011

Michael Graetz, The End of Energy, MIT Press, 2011

Joseph P. Tomain, Ending Dirty Energy Policy: Prelude to Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2011

Presentation

3:00-3:50 pm

US-EU Public and Private Sector Responses to the Financial Crisis: Comparative Perspectives

Prof. Irene Finel-Honigman, Adjunct Professor of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University

Political Responses:
Perceptions and misperceptions on the role of government intervention and control in the financial sector

Interpretation of the US 2008 "tarp" and partial nationalizations in the US and the EU

"Will the US become Greece": Economic fearmongering in a period of political volatility

Impact of 18 month long US presidential campaigns: less focused on EU issues, partisan emphasis on weakness in Europe instead of actual debate on the causes and framework of the EU debt crisis

Economic Responses
Market bipolar volatility since late spring with 200-400 point swings blamed on the EU and US debt crisis: impact of downgrades and interim solutions

Economic press, media reflexive reactions in 24/7 news cycle: “Is Europe collapsing?”

Economic theory and analysis: Since 1992 political will has pushed Europe forward, while the market has had the ability to speculate against it. US economists have a long history of euro skepticism since the 1990s (Robert Mundell pro EU stance versus Martin Feldstein disaster scenario). In 2011 Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke cautious optimism versus Nouriel Roubini, George Soros breakup scenarios.

New approaches and broader scope for the Fed
Redefining the mandate and scope of the ECB, IMF (role of Christine Lagarde)
Cooperation between Fed and ECB

Economic culture
Lack of US historical knowledge and historical memory of the origins and framework of the EU

Limited debate and coverage of the profound socioeconomic shifts called for in the euro crisis: the role of the state and civil society, the public sector in Greece, Italy and Portugal

Symbolic and practical impact of strikes, public manifestations and riots: why do Europeans demonstrate, why are Americans passive?

Quest and interpretations of short term, long term solutions

Suggested Readings

Robert Mundell, The Case for the Euro I, March 24, 1998, The Wall Street Journal

Robert Mundell, The Case for the Euro II, March 25, 1998, The Wall Street Journal

Martin Feldstein, Euro remains a mistake, September 6, 2011, FT Video

Larry Summers, Fear Will Save Eurozone, September 29, 2011, FT Video

Mario Monti, Germany, do your duty and save the euro today, Financial Times, September 29, 2011

Additional Readings

C.Reinhart, K.Rogoff, This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, 2010

N. Roubini, S.Nihm. Crisis Economics, Penguin, 2010

Michael Lewis, Bommerang: Travels in the New Third World, Norton, 2011

4:00-5:00 pm

US-China political relations

Prof. Andrew Nathan, Political Science Department, Columbia University

The engagement policy pursued by all U.S. presidents since Nixon has worked, but with some unexpected results.  China developed economically, joined world systems, and underwent domestic liberalization.  But it did not become a democracy and does not seem to be on course to become one in the foreseeable future.  Meanwhile, it has emerged as a major power, is on track to be the world's largest economy, and is building up its naval power.  Does the rise of China present a threat to American interests, and if so, in what way?

Suggested Readings

Nathan, Andrew J., What China Wants: Bargaining with Beijing, Foreign Affairs, Volume 90, Number 4, July/August 2011

Nathan, Andrew J., The Truth About China, The National Interest, Number 105, January/February 2010