Professors Andrew Gelman, Jeffrey Lax and Justin Phillips summarized their research on support for same-sex marriage in The New York Times August 21, 2010.
The research applies a statistical technique to national polls to generate state estimates of support for same-sex marriage and finds that although as recently as 2004 same-sex marriage did not have majority support in any state, by 2008, three states had crossed the 50 percent line. Gelman, Lax and Phillips find that support for same-sex marriage has increased in all states and that the trend will continue.
"Nationally, a majority of people under age 30 support same-sex marriage," they write. "And this is not because of overwhelming majorities found in more liberal states that skew the national picture: our research shows that a majority of young people in almost every state support it. As new voters come of age, and as their older counterparts exit the voting pool, it’s likely that support will increase, pushing more states over the halfway mark."
In related research mentioned in The Washington Post, Lax and Phillips found widespread geographic diversity of views on same-sex marriage. Their state-by-state analysis of polling data published in August 2009 tracked opinion trends over time on eight issues affecting gay and lesbian rights and found that state and local policymakers are reluctant to expand equal rights laws and protections for same-sex partners even where majorities of voters support them.
